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#1156812 - 09/01/2013 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Trav dawwggg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13100
Loc: Cairns
Latest UKMET run has it skirting Exmouth before crossing the coast further south as strong system.



282

FXXT01 EGRR 090600



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND

SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.01.2013



TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4S 116.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.01.2013 12.4S 116.5E STRONG

12UTC 09.01.2013 13.2S 115.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.01.2013 13.9S 115.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.01.2013 15.3S 115.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.01.2013 16.7S 115.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.01.2013 18.1S 114.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.01.2013 19.1S 114.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.01.2013 20.8S 113.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.01.2013 22.4S 113.4E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.01.2013 25.0S 113.4E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.01.2013 27.8S 114.0E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.01.2013 30.8S 116.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.01.2013 32.4S 119.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT



My bolded coordinate is marked by a cross on the radar map below.




The coordinates after that are for a crossing near Cape Cuvier. As per below.



Very early days though.

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#1156820 - 09/01/2013 18:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Trav dawwggg]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Posts: 681
Loc: WA
This loop has it coming right over Exmouth, then straddling the coast all the way down as far as about Jurien.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

I don't know how long this image will stay like it is (it probably updates), but for those of you who called Kalbarri, check this out.


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#1156822 - 09/01/2013 18:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Jax]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 51
Loc: South West
Its a CAT 3!!!

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#1156823 - 09/01/2013 18:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Cori]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2176
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 3:04 pm WST on Wednesday 9 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay,
including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 3 was estimated to be
840 kilometres north of Karratha and
1000 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south
southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including
the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay
later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during
Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.
Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with
isolated heavy rainfall possible.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 116.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Wednesday 09 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

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#1156824 - 09/01/2013 18:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Orebound]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13100
Loc: Cairns






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#1156825 - 09/01/2013 18:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Cori]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 148
Loc: Karratha, WA

Where exactly will she land if at all?? confused
Max Winds 120 gusting to 167 km/h
Central Pressure 972 hPa
Recent Movement SSW 9 km/h
Location 13.2S 116.4E
Confidence Accurate within 37 km
Radius to Gales 278 km

Now moving in a definate SSW track and starting to ramp up to a predicted top end Cat 4 by Sat...
+72hr 1400 Sat 12 Jan 2013 20.4S 113.2E 272km 11 km/h 931 hPa 4 194 gusting to 269 km/h 278 km


Edited by Weathergrrl (09/01/2013 18:17)

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#1156829 - 09/01/2013 18:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Weathergrrl]
MH123 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2011
Posts: 91
Eeeep! Look out Carnarvon!

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#1156836 - 09/01/2013 18:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Karratha Pilotdude]
Homie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2012
Posts: 2
Originally Posted By: Karratha Pilotdude
Though some of those Dams around Perth could really do with a crap-load of rain


And any cold front that prevents another 38+ degree, 9 day heatwave is welcomed by me. My father also works at the Karratha site, so I've been glued to the BoM map. I don't mind if they aren't the most reliable predictors of a cyclone's movement, so long as they update frequently if/when it nears land (fingers crossed T.C. Narelle misses Exmouth by a few hundred clicks; it's turtle mating season).

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#1156838 - 09/01/2013 18:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: MH123]
wiz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2001
Posts: 450
Loc: Perth, WA
EC now also has it crossing land, but brushing the Capes in the south west, and then to be near Albany lol



Edited by wiz (09/01/2013 18:51)

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#1156841 - 09/01/2013 18:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: wiz]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2176
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 09/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 116.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/1800: 14.1S 116.1E: 045 [080]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 10/0600: 15.5S 115.8E: 070 [130]: 095 [175]: 946
+36: 10/1800: 16.8S 115.2E: 090 [165]: 100 [185]: 941
+48: 11/0600: 18.3S 114.4E: 110 [200]: 105 [195]: 933
+60: 11/1800: 19.3S 113.6E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 932
+72: 12/0600: 20.4S 113.2E: 145 [270]: 105 [195]: 931
REMARKS:
Position based on Vis imagery and earlier scatterometer and microwave images.
Convection has become more organised with an emerging eye on microwave imagery
and recent indications of a weak eye on Vis and IR. Dvorak DT varies between 4.0
to 4.5 based on IR embedded centre/eye [LG surround; B/W eye subtraction] and
vis curved band 1.3 or ragged eye [4.0]. CI determined at 4.5 indicating
intensity of 65 knots consistent with SATCON 72kn [1min mean] and microwave
pattern, although ADT remains too low.

Development is expected to continue in the next 24 to 36 hours under low to
moderate shear and strong outflow and then plateau.

Motion has now become south southwesterly which should generally continue for
the next few days. This takes the cyclone towards the Northwest Cape.

The outermost gales may commence on the central Pilbara coast on Friday morning
and extend to the west Pilbara coast later on Friday. Winds are likely to
increase on Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. A severe TC impact on the far
west Pilbara coast remains a possibility on the weekend.

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#1156843 - 09/01/2013 19:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Orebound]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5885
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Thats interesting there Orebound. Just that little bit more South in direction vs the SSW and I reckon the NWEST Cape at the other end is in for a rough ride. Its a big call from BOM and a few of the other agencies saying it will plateau in intensity. A big hefty CAT 4 ploughing its way South might be harder to reign in.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1156844 - 09/01/2013 19:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5885
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Shear closer to the coast (if its to make landfall) will be the one to watch. You see some big cyclones go from intense gnarley systems to washed out naked systems in under 24hrs. Also you get the systems that were meant to decay but defy everything and keep intensifying. Which way will narelle go?

Big tides through out the region into the weekend especially Sunday. Hope it doesn't interfere with the turtle nests along the Ningaloo coast. But with big tides and a cyclone the chances of massive turtle nest losses would have to be huge.


Edited by Popeye (09/01/2013 19:13)
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1156846 - 09/01/2013 19:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13100
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: Popeye
A big hefty CAT 4 ploughing its way South might be harder to reign in.


Definitely!

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#1156848 - 09/01/2013 19:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 2676
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I wonder if it will hit Onslow. Apparently it is the most often hit population center in australia and it's been a while since it suffered a direct hit(not that that really means anything). She is certainly intesifying at an incredible rate, but that is waht water over 30deg will do I suppose.

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#1156850 - 09/01/2013 19:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: wiz]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5885
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: wiz
EC now also has it crossing land, but brushing the Capes in the south west, and then to be near Albany lol


I noticed that on EC wiz. The last few years have seen a few systems head down the west coast. Greedy buggers. Cyclones aren't meant to go down there. If it does though it will make an interesting few days of panic around perth amounting to nothing more than a typical summer Fremantle Doctor seabreeze and some swell. Other potential is more big floods for carnarvon, Kalbarri etc. Narelle is becoming more interesting by the hour in here possibilities.

The option of it just staying offshore and fizzling out in the Indian Ocean is the lamest option for us cyclone lovers.
_________________________
Cable Beach 2014/15 Predicted Wet Season Total - 2867mm lol

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#1156851 - 09/01/2013 19:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Popeye]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 7833
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Anyone know how close to the shore it needs to be before BoM starts issuing hourly updates?

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#1156853 - 09/01/2013 19:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Long Road Home]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 184
Loc: Karratha
Isn't it once a red alert is issued? There's not much point to it otherwise, I think it's every 3 hours on yellow too.

From memory anyway, would be interested to hear the real answer smile

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#1156858 - 09/01/2013 19:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Leelee]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 22593
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
the WA alert system is not what the BOM use to dertermine how often watches/warnings are issued. Qld & NT dont even use the alert system, though i wish we would (but thats for another thread).
however, once the system is close enough to track on radar the BOM often start issueing hourly updates.


http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/warnings/advice.shtml
How often is a Tropical Cyclone Advice issued?

While the threat remains, a tropical cyclone advice will be issued every six hours, increasing to every three hours when cyclone warnings are required. In some circumstances, when a cyclone approaching the coast is under radar surveillance, the advices may be issued hourly.
_________________________
Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld -
May Total - 13.8mm (17mm)
June Total - 61.2mm (21mm)
2014 Total to Date - 1000.2mm (1107mm)

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#1156861 - 09/01/2013 19:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 184
Loc: Karratha
Originally Posted By: Mick10
the WA alert system is not what the BOM use to dertermine how often watches/warnings are issued. Qld & NT dont even use the alert system, though i wish we would (but thats for another thread).
however, once the system is close enough to track on radar the BOM often start issueing hourly updates.


http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/warnings/advice.shtml
How often is a Tropical Cyclone Advice issued?

While the threat remains, a tropical cyclone advice will be issued every six hours, increasing to every three hours when cyclone warnings are required. In some circumstances, when a cyclone approaching the coast is under radar surveillance, the advices may be issued hourly.


Thanks Mick! I've only ever lived in WA so had no idea about QLD and NT alerts, always assumed it was the same... Interesting

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#1156866 - 09/01/2013 20:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Leelee]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 1896
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G wind fields indicate winds should temporarily ramp up a litle tonight in Carnarvon as the south easterlies infeed into cyclone Narelle
THe current observations are indicating winds have increased atm.
Carnarvon currently 48 km/hr and gust a 61km/hr.
ACCESS color scheme indicating possible winds at 34 to 48 knots north of carnarvon tonight ( coastal).
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94300.shtml
---------


BOM summary in the above post says that the outermost closed low isobar is 1002 hPa.
Now ONSLOW (is 42 deg C atm)and the pilbara coast is already down to 998 hPa . So Karratha, port Hedland etc is already within the boundaries of the Narelle low.

So the 15 to 25 knot winds the pilbara coast is experiencing currently is actually the outermost boundary of Narele's wind field .
Basically Narelle has already arrived on the pilbarra coast

-----

THe map below shows the wind fields for the pilbarra coast as Narelle gets closer.

On Friday up to 64 knot North easterlies forecast by ACCESS G as she gets even closer..and that is only ..get this.
42 hrs away!!!!!

Now 64 knot winds are about a CAT 1-2 experience ?

The point is..
Her outermost closed isobars are already affecting the PILBARRA coast. She has arrived!!
You are on her south eastern flank

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

In 42 hrs.. ACCESS G indicates the winds will be like this below



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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