Page 13 of 21 < 1 2 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 20 21 >
Topic Options
#1157279 - 10/01/2013 21:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23601
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Its been interesting to watch JTWC pull their track maps closer and closer with each update. It will be good to see their latest map when it does come out. EC still has it offshore as mentioned above in JTWC detailed explanation. Better than mine lol. Have another beer pops.


I reckon if you had a other beer popeye you could write something even better smile


Edited by OzCyChaser Trav (10/01/2013 21:03)
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1157280 - 10/01/2013 21:07 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dawgggg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18252
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Tracked pushed back a little west it seems.



Bump advice.



IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 6:00 pm WST on Thursday 10 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay,
including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Cape Cuvier.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 3 was estimated to be
680 kilometres north of Exmouth and
570 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south
southwest towards Northwest Cape and gradually intensify.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area during Friday,
then extend west to Exmouth overnight Friday and to Coral Bay Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara
coast becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometres per hour
overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per
hour are possible near the cyclone centre.

Gales may extend south to Cape Cuvier during Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with
isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. Heavy falls are likely near the
west Pilbara coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark on Friday night and Saturday, with flooding of low lying coastal
areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the centre of
the cyclone passes close to the coast.


DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Mardie including
Wickham, Roebourne, Point Sampson, Karratha and Dampier should be taking
precautions.
Communities between Mardie and Cape Cuvier should listen for the next advice.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 115.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 10 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1157281 - 10/01/2013 21:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7816
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: OzCyChaser Trav

I reckon if you had a other beer popeye you could write something even better smile

nope. two glasses of red and a few more beers and im shutting shop tonight! burp!! Family catch ups are a killer cant wait to get on the road back to Broome.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1157292 - 10/01/2013 21:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Popeye]
Dirtball Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2011
Posts: 51
Loc: K-Town
Gone all boring now, looks like a shift to the west, and its so slow..... moving at 10km an hour means its at least 57 hours from coast....... yawn....

I think cyclones hitting any coastal location are a real myth in WA and they should just be called storms.

Top
#1157293 - 10/01/2013 21:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dirtball]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
At 1700 she was travelling SSW @ 20kms yeah??. Only 27 hrs away at this rate hahaha but coastal crossings a myth they seem to be


Edited by Weathergrrl (10/01/2013 21:55)

Top
#1157296 - 10/01/2013 22:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23601
Loc: Townsville
You guys get a severe tropical cyclone at least once per year. There is always some excitement going on. Not to mention a possible system next week.

Come to the Queensland coast if you want nothing smile

Good night everyone, by morning we should have a fair idea on how close she will get to the coast.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1157298 - 10/01/2013 22:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dirtball]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour ( Bom) see post above

570 km away from nearest landfall atm
570km / 21 km hr = Only 27 hrs away at this rate..

Gee thats just over 24 hrs !!
Models say it will take longer than to skim the coast .
So Narelle in theory should slow.... Maybe

A bit surprised the barom has only dropped 1 hPa in 24 hrs on the coastal pilbarra?


Onslow airport has had 82 km/hr gusts with the N/easterlies wrapping in.. but surprisingly.. surface pressure has increased? back up to 1002hpa
Very high winds for that pressure? and distance from center


Some banding evident now with embedded storms arriving on the pilbarra coast. Plenty of storm activity influenced from Narelle's presence

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

source
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/water-vapour


Edited by crikey (10/01/2013 22:14)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1157300 - 10/01/2013 22:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dawgggg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18252
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Don't be surprised if BoM have another correction to the east slightly in their next update. Other runs with centre positioning/track aren't showing that kick to the sth west on BoM's 5.00pm track map and show a more southerly run over the past few hours.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1157301 - 10/01/2013 22:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25033
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
she isnt too far off getting some decent banding on the 500km loop radars which will help in tracking her. interesting night to see how threatening this girl will be.
modelling showing she should be some much needed rain to perth and surrounds too. hopefully you all get some.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

Top
#1157307 - 10/01/2013 22:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23601
Loc: Townsville
One more post before bed haha poke

Hey crikey, Narelle is still too far away from the coast to drop the barometric pressure significantly. Also remember a ridge was pushing up the coast which is squeezing underneath the cyclone, this is also why you are seeing higher barometric pressures and winds along the coast. I'm not suprised that Onslow recieved 40knot winds today with the ridge and cyclone interacting.

Best bet at this stage for tropical cyclone observations will be exmouth on the coast. They will generally see a destabilization starting tonight, with squally showers increasing. You will notice too as each rain squall/band moves over an obs station, with each band the rainfall will increase, the winds will get more intense, the barometric pressure will drop. Then once the band has passed, the winds will ease again, the rain will ease and the barometric pressure will rise once again.

It's a steady destabilization, until you get closer and closer to the eyewall where the gusts and rainfall increase dramatically, and the barometric pressure drops like a rock.

Cheers


Edited by OzCyChaser Trav (10/01/2013 22:34)
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1157309 - 10/01/2013 22:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dawgggg]
Rainwoman_08 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 361
Loc: Derby WA
I just checked the 512km radar at Dampier. Some outer banding seen already??

Top
#1157313 - 10/01/2013 22:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Dawgggg]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2369
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: OzCyChaser Trav

Best bet at this stage for tropical cyclone observations will be exmouth on the coast. They will generally see a destabilization starting tonight, with squally showers increasing.


Spot on there. Fairly cranking guster pushing through Exmouth at the moment. Wouldn't be suprised if gusts were 100kph plus. Blowing crap from pillar to post.
_________________________
YOUTUBE STUFF

PHOTOS

Top
#1157322 - 10/01/2013 23:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: magicrain]
magicrain Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 36
Loc: SA
Originally Posted By: magicrain
Hope this thing gives pilbara a nice drink but doesn't full on hit there. Hopefully it can hug the coast and smash Perth, as a cat 1 or something- sea temps have been higher than average this year. We had a few fizzer cyclones supposed to hit the last few summers, Izzy and Bianca, Izzy had some rain in it though.


Looks like my uneducated guess may eventuate. I love the cyclone season due to the luck involved and these systems seem to form out of nowhere feeding on the warm soupy ocean. I guess the the ultimate scenario would be a late season cyclone and strong early season cold front converging on the SW, forming some kind of hybrid system giving us massive totals like you guys saw with the La Niņa in the east.

Top
#1157324 - 10/01/2013 23:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: magicrain]
Rainwoman_08 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 361
Loc: Derby WA
Be careful what you wish for magicrain. I was in QLD in 2010-11. Today is the 2 year aniversary of Grantham. K


Edited by Rainwoman_08 (10/01/2013 23:10)

Top
#1157327 - 10/01/2013 23:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Rainwoman_08]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 316
Loc: Karratha, WA
Thankfully the WA NW coast is far less populated, makes it a bit more guilt free wishing for the rain smile

Top
#1157331 - 10/01/2013 23:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Rainwoman_08]
Rainwoman_08 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 361
Loc: Derby WA
Barrow Island obs very interesting atm Orebound. BOM. hPa up and then down during today.

Top
#1157333 - 10/01/2013 23:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Leelee]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18252
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
This contradicts BoM's kick to the sth west. The positioning isn't necessarily right though smile

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01301092232.jpg
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1157343 - 11/01/2013 00:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
The basics as 2000 WST Thu 10 Jan 2013
Severity Category 3
Max Winds 148 gusting to 204 km/h
Central Pressure 956 hPa
Recent Movement SSW 19 km/h
Location 16.3S 114.9E
Confidence Accurate within 37 km
Radius to Gales 333 km

Top
#1157346 - 11/01/2013 00:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Weathergrrl]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Its a guessing game alright. It looks to be moving almost due south but if you go to the WZ Infra Red Sat maps, just tilt ya head down a bit you can almost see what looks like an eye. If in which its an eye its moving straight west. It could be an anomaly but at borderline Cat 4 it may well be an eye. Next update will be interesting..

Top
#1157347 - 11/01/2013 00:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (98S) January 2013 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Dirtball Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2011
Posts: 51
Loc: K-Town
Update not telling us much more from BOM.

Running parrallel with the coast.


yawn yawn

might go to bed

Top
Page 13 of 21 < 1 2 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 20 21 >


Who's Online
8 registered (Pacman, Barronriver, Blackacubra, red earth, princessweather, rainthisway, dan, 1 invisible), 322 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
cyclops, dylan_dawg, dylzi, Farmer, GrizzlyBear, Sailfish, tonzo
Forum Stats
29495 Members
32 Forums
23816 Topics
1480368 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image