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#1441158 - 14/11/2017 17:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Some scattered storms over Orange direction but not moving near me.

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#1441176 - 14/11/2017 20:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Fairly benign weather at the moment, but also surprisingly cool, not a lot of warmth in the air.
Tocal, which has long term averages, tracking at 23.7C, some 3C below the November long term average.(and 3C below October this year as well).
Maitland at 24C, which is a rounded figure only early in the month, but 2 days of missing data does not help either.
Nights have been particularly cool this month.
Looks like we are in some type of La Nina though now, and the rest of the month will be below average temps. Rainfall is only in the form of showers, and nothing substantial so far.


Edited by DerekHV (14/11/2017 20:26)

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#1441181 - 14/11/2017 21:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DerekHV]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Fairly benign weather at the moment, but also surprisingly cool, not a lot of warmth in the air.
Tocal, which has long term averages, tracking at 23.7C, some 3C below the November long term average.(and 3C below October this year as well).
Maitland at 24C, which is a rounded figure only early in the month, but 2 days of missing data does not help either.
Nights have been particularly cool this month.
Looks like we are in some type of La Nina though now, and the rest of the month will be below average temps. Rainfall is only in the form of showers, and nothing substantial so far.


Yes it is quite cool but I am quite liking this weather, although it's getting a bit repetitive now. Today was basically the exact same as yesterday which was the same as the previous day etc.

And I notice that there is no end in sight to the current wind circulation. Endless E/NE winds as far as the eye can see. It will be broken up a bit by the trough on the weekend but then it looks like early next week this same pattern of cool mostly sunny weather with coastal breezes every day will continue. Going to be a persistent hot summer for Adelaide and Melbourne if these patterns continue into the warmer months. Today it reached 35 in Adelaide, 37 yesterday after a min of 26. Melbourne got 34 today, about 33 yesterday and even Hobart reached 30C. But yet Brisbane made only 27 and Sydney was the coldest capital in the country struggling to 23C.

I'm finding it interesting that the air is so dry and cool, even all the way up to SE QLD it is cold and dry with mid 20's on the coast and DP's in the low teens. Cold nights as well, like nights of around 15 in Brisbane which is crazy for this time of year. It should be stormy and disgustingly humid up there.

Often this type of setup would bring crappy weather every single day (*2011-12 summer flashbacks*) but this is quite unusually nice.


Edited by Wave Rider (14/11/2017 22:02)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441235 - 15/11/2017 14:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
A big cell near the Warrumbungles and other building a little more NE around Kaputar (Nandewars)

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#1441247 - 15/11/2017 15:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Afternoon all, and greetings from a very warm Cooks Gap. It's currently hovering around 28 degrees here at the farm and there's a lot of convection, particularly to our North. There's very little in the way of meaningful precipitation though, with just the odd spit here and there. BoM assures us that we'll get some showers and possible storms from tomorrow onwards though. Hope we get enough to make a noticeable difference to the tanks smile

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#1441248 - 15/11/2017 15:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Another carbon copy sunny day, a bit warmer and without the morning cloud. Clear skies,near 30 in the outer West, 26-27 in the middle Ring, while OH reached 24 for only the third time this month. The sea gales are going strongly.

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#1441249 - 15/11/2017 16:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That Ne’etly has some grunt today, gusting to nearly 30 knots here!


Edited by Kino (15/11/2017 16:14)

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#1441280 - 16/11/2017 00:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Today was the warmest day we've had in well over a week but it only reached 24C, which is average for this time of year.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441294 - 16/11/2017 09:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I'm not sure if I've ever seen such a prolonged uninterrupted period of NE'ly winds. It began on the 9th and so today will mark a week that we have had NE winds. And I look at the models and see nothing but the same wind direction until at least the 25th.

It must be really rare? Often we get these winds in summer, but they are periodically broken up by southerly changes or less commonly a burst of westerly winds.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441320 - 16/11/2017 13:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
My 2 cents' worth: I can't recall seeing such a long-lasting pattern. It's more common in late Summer when we get N-NE winds bringing mild conditions to the East Coast and hot weather to Adelaide, Melbourne and inland NSW.

What we seem to have is a stagnant high sitting well South in the Tasman Sea. Troughs are developing to the East (don't affect us) and to the West (over inland Qld/NSW/Vic). It seems to be 'absorbing' highs approaching from the Bight. So lots of moisture infeed, the chaance for extensive coastal and inland rain and storms and sometimes heat for the South.

Our sunny spell is coming to end end. After another sunny start early, it's been mostly overcast since late morning. The rain band (with showers moving NW -> SE) is gradually edging Eastwards. It may be a couple of hours away, possibly losing intensity as it comes off the ranges. It is currently in the upper Blue Mountains. No sign of lightning on the radar yet.

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#1441373 - 16/11/2017 22:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The outlook for Summer wasn't what I was expecting: temperatures in our part of the world average with a small tendency to above average, rainfall average to a little below: Summer Outlook

See also: Unusual climate mix baffles experts


Edited by Steve777 (16/11/2017 22:35)
Edit Reason: Fix link

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#1441761 - 20/11/2017 13:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 841
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Only 1 day this month so far over 30C, before it looks 2-3 days later in the week.
Remarkably mild month so far, often happens that way immediately after a well above average month in spring though.
It certainly makes those comments "geez it's gonna be a hot summer", when made in early spring look amateurish.

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#1441763 - 20/11/2017 13:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Just been playing around a bit with some numbers and noticed that Armidale is potentially on a record long run of relatively cool days in November (13 days under 22 which equals the record at the current site, and should get to 16 which would also break the record for the old site).

This is perhaps only mildly interesting, but what interests me more is that the record long run of 20+ November days in Strahan (Tasmania) which is about to get broken was set on almost exactly the same dates in 2000 as those when Armidale last had such a long run of November cool days. Shows what a persistent block can do (although the 2000 event also featured flood rains in inland northern and central NSW which haven't been matched this time).

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#1441780 - 20/11/2017 16:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Well spotted pattern BT smile

Logical really when you think of the mechanisms but a pattern can go unnoticed nevertheless smile

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#1441785 - 20/11/2017 17:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I was thinking that we were getting a very long run of cool weather in Sydney, which is increasingly uncommon.

A few stats for OH:
  • It hasn't reached 27 since October 30 (21 days).
  • It hasn't reached 25 since November 6 (14 days)
  • 14 of the 20 maxima have been below average.

Of course OH is a strange site. It is nearly always 'above average' except in Summer when it is mostly above average. These days 'average' means 'cool'.

I thought I might look inland at Bankstown:
  • Average November temps: 14.4 - 25.4
  • Average Nov 1-20, 2017: 13.8 - 24.2
  • Number of below average max: 16/20
  • Number of below average min: 12/20
  • Number of days >= 30: 1/20
  • Number of days >= 27: 1/20 - I think that this would be very unusual.

One thing that's different this November is the lack of usual late Spring variability, apart from a pair of very cool days on the 4th & 5th. It's more like February but cooler.

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#1441807 - 20/11/2017 22:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Interesting stats there guys.

I think I'm gonna book a summer holiday to Tasmania!! poke We could only dream of having such persistent warm weather lol.

In all seriousness though it is interesting to see a weather pattern like this because I believe it is an insight into what the climate could be like in the future here. Highs way to the south all the time so warmer summers for Tassie but cooler and wetter summers in eastern NSW. Or perhaps E/NE winds will be so prevalent that upwelling will consistently occur and maybe make the climate drier? So the term global warming is not always valid because warming in one place will come at the expense of another. (but to a lesser extent than the warmth)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441861 - 21/11/2017 12:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
looks like some good storm weather could be shaping up for NSW starting from the weekend. Even the coast looks like its in line for something during next week.
Whatever happens it looks warm humid and unstable so hopefully some interesting storm outbreaks and good rain for areas that needed it....

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#1441862 - 21/11/2017 12:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1447
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Hope so GringosRain,we still need run off rain to run creeks and fill your cattle dams at Quorrobolong.As long as the storms,if any ar'nt as severe as Kurri Kurri got a few weeks back.


Edited by Stormy3 (21/11/2017 12:41)
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#1441865 - 21/11/2017 12:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2704
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Steering winds look pathetically weak for the whole period, so unless something develops overhead I think we will struggle on the coast.

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#1441866 - 21/11/2017 12:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Steering winds look pathetically weak for the whole period, so unless something develops overhead I think we will struggle on the coast.


ACCESS has 20-30knots....not sure that's so pathetic

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