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#1461923 - 17/04/2018 08:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1912
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Finally some light showers here after weeks of clear skies. Enough to make roads dangerous, but thatís it frown

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#1461925 - 17/04/2018 09:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10099
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Agriculturaly I think April is knackered.

No real rain - no grass growth etc before winter. No water in dams.

A bad winter coming up for rural folk.

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#1461927 - 17/04/2018 09:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Assuming there is a winter Dave.
Newcastle already around forecast. So looks like being warmer than forecast. Shux. But no suprise in an April as suprising as this. A once in a generation April.
Is Obs Hill on track to beat 1922 Steve?
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#1461931 - 17/04/2018 12:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
davidg Offline
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Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2231
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Originally Posted By: Knot
Assuming there is a winter Dave.
Newcastle already around forecast. So looks like being warmer than forecast. Shux. But no suprise in an April as suprising as this. A once in a generation April.
Is Obs Hill on track to beat 1922 Steve?


Currently tracking 2.8c above the previous record (6c above average!) and the 7 day forecast all 26-27c. Looks like absolutely smashing the 1922 record. That goes with the highest max record and with no rain in sight, possibly the driest April on record.

Out here in Penrith it's looking increasingly likely that we will end April without a single day below the average for both max and min temperatures. Average max is currently 31.1c (6.7c above average!) which is higher than the average max for January (and tracking 4.4c above the previous record). We will also break the average min record by around 2c just to be sure.

A truly astonishing month.

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#1461933 - 17/04/2018 12:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Good info david. Unbelievable stats. Everything has a cause or causes. What is perpetuating such an out there April.
Lol. Nobbys temp went south after I said it may end up warmer than forecast. Currently 19 there and the day might turn out to be first below av day of April so far. but only just after hitting 22.6 earlier only.

Obs hill can't even squeeze out an average or below av day in these conditions. Hit 22.9


Edited by Knot (17/04/2018 12:54)
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#1461936 - 17/04/2018 13:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Does the foehn effect have something to do with it because usually the barrage of Westerlies is almost unseen in April. Along with the stagnant weather pattern all the heat settles over the inland and pushes to the coast with only a light seabreeze stopping it.

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#1461939 - 17/04/2018 15:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well, sure isnít even close to being warm here today, cold 18c with stiff southerlies. Earlier showers have pushed to the escarpment.

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#1461947 - 17/04/2018 16:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1935
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
One of those days that make you appreciate how good April has been thus far.

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#1461949 - 17/04/2018 16:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10099
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Max here today about 24 but any time standing in the sun felt noticeably hotter than that.

Overall though a nice day, sunny, light breezes. Probably a nice cool 7 or so coming up tonight.

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#1461952 - 17/04/2018 17:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Does the foehn effect have something to do with it because usually the barrage of Westerlies is almost unseen in April. Along with the stagnant weather pattern all the heat settles over the inland and pushes to the coast with only a light seabreeze stopping it.


Maybe a little Santa Ana effect this April for places in lee side of a west air flow. Warmer and drier than typical.
Normally winds are predom maritime in April and hence the windward side gets the moister air. We really needed this pattern in winter and not now. The sun's elevation angle is still too great for coinciding west winds in April.


Edited by Knot (17/04/2018 17:23)
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#1461953 - 17/04/2018 17:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
6 of the next 7 days have the "chance of a thunderstorm" for the Metro.
Lol, as if that's going to happen.

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#1461954 - 17/04/2018 17:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
As Davidg said, Sydney OH is well on track to beat 1922. Current month averages, including today, are tracking 19.9 - 28.1, similar to January this year, which was a hot January. Taking account of the forecast, the average by the 24th will still be a January-like 19.2 to 27.3.

The current records are minimum 16.9 (1989 - cloudy and wet) and maximum 25.6 (1922 - hot and dry). If the last six days of April are exceptionally cold (like 8 below average - unlikely / impossible) there's a chance we might miss one or other record, but it seems likely that the hottest April on record by a large margin is pretty much locked in unless the coming week's forecast is very wrong (unlikely).

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#1461956 - 17/04/2018 17:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Good info Steve. Looks like a done deal.
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#1461960 - 17/04/2018 17:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Don't wanna labour the point but the synoptic chessboard is taking shape to drag NW and interior heat towards us yet again. 41.2 in PH today.
Not a snowflakes chance in hell of cool end to April. But a very big chance of a very warm start to May. Syd obs hasn't had two days in May reach 30. I reckon this May it will.
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#1461962 - 17/04/2018 17:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Homer
6 of the next 7 days have the "chance of a thunderstorm" for the Metro.
Lol, as if that's going to happen.

Stormcast is going for that as well but it remains to be seen whether the storm shield is up and running, the instability is there and it is often expected after a run of heat to end in storms.

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#1461966 - 17/04/2018 18:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rob G Offline
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Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 697
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Potential for storms in the Central Tablelands on Thursday too. Even 5mm would be better than nothing.

Further ahead, March like temperatures are expected until next Monday.

Beyond that ACCESS forecasts and ECL around Anzac Day, while GFS goes for dry & warm conditions until month end. Around April 30th, GFS predicts that a cut-off low will bring rain, followed by a series of cold SW fronts in early May. Of course with the divergence in the models and still a way to go, this story will change daily.

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#1461967 - 17/04/2018 18:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Don't wanna labour the point but the synoptic chessboard is taking shape to drag NW and interior heat towards us yet again. 41.2 in PH today.
Not a snowflakes chance in hell of cool end to April. But a very big chance of a very warm start to May. Syd obs hasn't had two days in May reach 30. I reckon this May it will.


This could be interesting, since we have seen a whole week of high 20s and low 30s in the last week of April before, so the May record is a fairly vulnerable record imo. (similar to the Oct record, where the 1st week in November has had days that have thumped the Oct record)
This heat up in the Pilbara just does not know when to end.

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#1461975 - 17/04/2018 19:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney actually had a below average maximum today, 22.9, if you use 1981-2010 averages, or even 1961-1990. I think you can pretty much ignore anything before the 1917 site move, which seems to be a different country outside of November-March..

Sydney's West, away from the cloud, made it to 25-27.

Much of Sydney had a slightly chilly night last night, 14 at Bankstown, 11 at Richmond. OH seems to be forbidden to get below 18 rounded, let alone average (15.2, 1961-1990).

EDIT: As of 9:00 this morning, it hasn't rained in most of Sydney for 3 weeks. In spite of 8/8 cloud cover since mid morning here, there's no hint of rain and nothing showing on the radar.


Edited by Steve777 (17/04/2018 19:51)

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#1461981 - 17/04/2018 22:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6717
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Homer
6 of the next 7 days have the "chance of a thunderstorm" for the Metro.
Lol, as if that's going to happen.

Stormcast is going for that as well but it remains to be seen whether the storm shield is up and running, the instability is there and it is often expected after a run of heat to end in storms.


Looks like a half decent setup actually. Upper temps keep cooling as we get towards winter while ground temps remain fairly warm.
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#1461983 - 18/04/2018 05:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Got below 20 onite which is something I guess.
Some high cloud.
Need a Barry Manilow weather key change.
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