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#1158070 - 12/01/2013 23:41 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
looks to be getting better organised on the mtsat loop
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#1158072 - 12/01/2013 23:43 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 128
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Thanks boomer. Just checked CIMSS for divergence, convergence and vorticity and found that they are relatively weak and not directly over the system with vorticity more to its south west.

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#1158077 - 13/01/2013 00:06 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: islanboi]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Too true mate... but be aware they are not real time and may be as much as eight hours out.
But more importantly... the LLCC may not be below upper high. Swings and round abouts.
Imagine a tornado where the base may be well away from the top and the core curves all over the place.
That's what is happening now.
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#1158086 - 13/01/2013 00:46 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1158093 - 13/01/2013 02:01 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Im stepping out of my comfort zone but Im backing the noted system to interact with what is far stronger to the NW meaning the existing system should move to the NW.
Im probably very wrong.
Upper divergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=seastpac&sat=wg10s&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Lower convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=seastpac&sat=wg10s&prod=conv&zoom=&time
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#1158094 - 13/01/2013 02:16 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 128
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Current loops seem to have it edging WSW at the moment for the last few frames.

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#1158153 - 13/01/2013 11:32 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/2258 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.9S 179.0W
AT 122100 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION TD08F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC NADI.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/2017 Oct 15th 109.22mm
> > 11/07/17 Nov 07 5:07 pm 5.08mm p 24 h 0.00mm h 0.00mm
T now 24.8C > Tm 31.3C minT 23.7C H 68% W 0.0kmG 8.3GW BAROMETRIC 757.5mmhg 08:54pm 11/18/17 > re update night

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#1158299 - 13/01/2013 19:07 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/2017 Oct 15th 109.22mm
> > 11/07/17 Nov 07 5:07 pm 5.08mm p 24 h 0.00mm h 0.00mm
T now 24.8C > Tm 31.3C minT 23.7C H 68% W 0.0kmG 8.3GW BAROMETRIC 757.5mmhg 08:54pm 11/18/17 > re update night

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#1158371 - 13/01/2013 23:49 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Mathew]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 128
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Is that another LLCC breaking off to its northeast? Visible on the colorised IR.

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#1158489 - 14/01/2013 13:28 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: islanboi]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4066
Loc: El Arish
From JTWC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
178.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC. A 130202Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE CENTER. A 130004Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SUPPORTS
THE POSITION AND SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS. THE OCEANSAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS STRONG, LINEAR CONVERGENCE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST, WHICH IS FUELING EXTENSIVE AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY LLCC WITHIN THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NADI INDICATE LIGHT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1003MB AND
24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF ABOUT 1MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


NOAA invest SH992013 - INVEST
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH992013
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1158670 - 15/01/2013 06:26 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WAKA Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/12/2012
Posts: 1
Loc: VAVA'U, TONGA
Vava'u, Tonga, 1823Z, Winds N at 20-25, driving rain, convection tops to NE while LLCC is to SW, I guess we are in the middle of 08F.

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#1158763 - 15/01/2013 12:54 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1957 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 176.0W
AT 141800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 09
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LLCC. CIMMS INDICATE WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE NEAR THE SYSTEM BUT STRONG AWAY TO THE EAST.SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN GIVING DT=1.5,
MET=2.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 20.2S 174.2W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 21.1S 172.2W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 21.8S 170.0W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 22.5S 167.8W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150200 UTC.
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/2017 Oct 15th 109.22mm
> > 11/07/17 Nov 07 5:07 pm 5.08mm p 24 h 0.00mm h 0.00mm
T now 24.8C > Tm 31.3C minT 23.7C H 68% W 0.0kmG 8.3GW BAROMETRIC 757.5mmhg 08:54pm 11/18/17 > re update night

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#1159014 - 16/01/2013 14:25 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Mathew]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 128
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Fiji Met has a disturbance TD09F to the north of Vanuatu which is expected to slowly move eastwards and deepen, with a moderate chance of developing into a TC by Friday according to its TC outlook. GFS and CMC have it passing to the north of Fiji with both showing a southerly dip in its track before continuing westward into Samoa. Only NGP is calling for a closer approach to Fiji at this stage. Too early to tell, but we shall wait and see. Dont think either country needs another cyclone right now.

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#1159015 - 16/01/2013 14:34 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: islanboi]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4066
Loc: El Arish
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 09F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.1S 165.9E
AT 152100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1159312 - 17/01/2013 14:38 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6765
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Hi there mate.

Here a little look what is going on this way mate.

A lot has changes since the past 24 to 48 hours.

_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season.
Aug 8/16/2017 Oct 15th 109.22mm
> > 11/07/17 Nov 07 5:07 pm 5.08mm p 24 h 0.00mm h 0.00mm
T now 24.8C > Tm 31.3C minT 23.7C H 68% W 0.0kmG 8.3GW BAROMETRIC 757.5mmhg 08:54pm 11/18/17 > re update night

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#1160328 - 19/01/2013 10:13 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Mathew]
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
JTWC has upgraded development prospects to "moderate" for the low NE of Vanuatu -
"(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 172.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181036Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 181034Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM."

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#1160791 - 20/01/2013 09:42 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Rainy Night]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24818
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ukmet have a system further out in the pacific

EW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.8S 179.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 20.01.2013 13.0S 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.01.2013 12.8S 176.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.01.2013 12.9S 174.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.01.2013 13.4S 173.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.01.2013 13.5S 172.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.01.2013 14.2S 172.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.01.2013 14.2S 172.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.01.2013 14.0S 172.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.01.2013 14.2S 172.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.01.2013 14.4S 171.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.01.2013 14.7S 169.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.01.2013 15.1S 168.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
October 2017 total - 101.4mm (26mm)
November 2017 total - 0.0mm (54mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 807.8mm (1122mm)

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#1160811 - 20/01/2013 10:38 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Mick10]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4066
Loc: El Arish
JTWC have now upgraded the system to high.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 176.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.7W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191220Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES
25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF
A RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202000Z.


_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1160813 - 20/01/2013 10:54 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Mick10]
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mick10
ukmet have a system further out in the pacific

EW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.8S 179.8W

............................................................



Yeah, that would be the same system that JTWC have been reporting and now have a TC formation alert out for. It's moved a fair bit to the east since yesterday, so perhaps Fiji don't need to worry about it too much (unless it does a u-turn trick like severe TC Evan did!).

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#1160856 - 20/01/2013 13:02 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: Rainy Night]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 128
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Unless the models change, it appears Fiji may have dodged the bullet this time. With JTWC predicting 'significant development' for this system in next 24-36hrs and its current easterly track, both samoas is still in its sights. Most models have been having the system move very close to, or over the Samoan group of islands for a few days now, however most have it deepen into a much stronger system as it leaves the islands.

I guess we should wait for a few more model runs before we can be certain as advised by the Pagopago Weather Office in their synoptic discussion on the NWS website.

A question: Does having the system intensify earlier have any bearing on its track.

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