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#1160352 - 19/01/2013 11:17 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
Do you think it's legitimate CeeBee?

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#1160355 - 19/01/2013 11:22 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Tom1234]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Originally Posted By: enrique
will be interesting to see how it trends in the longer term in 2013, much warmer than 2012 so far but only 19 days of data.


Weatherbell models

2012; Global temperature anomaly 0.039 C



2013 ; 19 days data ; global temperature anomaly 0.020 C


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#1160360 - 19/01/2013 11:29 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

I'll keep on posting the UAH charts because Anthony Watts and Roy Spencer think that it is legitimate. Maybe you could write up an article on why you think it is useless and submit it to WUWT.


Don't worry about the haters man, the bar on what information is acceptable is always changing day to day.

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#1160361 - 19/01/2013 11:31 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003

To everyone else, this is how much the Discoveries chart data varies from the actual UAH data.






The caveat on the site says:

"The global-average data displayed on this page have only limited quality control, can undergo unannounced changes, and so should only be used as a general guide. Official, quality-controlled global lower-tropospheric temperatures, using more extensive processing procedures (and possibly different satellite instruments) are updated every month and are available at:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/

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#1160363 - 19/01/2013 11:37 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Bill Illis]
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
And more information about that caveat from that link, Bill, includes the following:

Quote:
Update 5 Oct 2012 *************************

As noted in the 1 Dec 2011 entry below, the increasing noise in AQUA continued to
introduce a bias to the time series. In Sep 2012 the bias was clearly
quickly growing
as the difference between AQUA and the average of NOAA-15 and
NOAA-18 was 0.2 K. This event was obviously beyond our control. As
a result we have changed the satellites which provide data for the
time series since 2009 for which mainly AQUA provided in v5.4. In new
version 5.5 we shall use the average of NOAA-15 and -18 for the time
series. Both of these spacecraft have experienced the effects of
diurnal drift: NOAA-15 warming slightly and NOAA-18 cooling slightly.
By utilizing the average, the errors largely cancel. The difference
between the two spacecraft is less than 0.1 K, so this is much better
that the difference between them and AQUA. This affects the two products
that depend on AMSU channel 5
, LT and MT. AMSU channel 9 used in LS
is unaffected by the noise.

The net effect of this change is minuscule on the trend - from +0.137
to +0.138 K/decade for LT and +0.047 to +0.043 for MT.

So updating the list on Update 8 Nov 2011 we have

Spacecraft with AMSU used in UAH products as of Sep 2012

v5.5
START TERMINATE
NOAA-15 1998/215 Present
NOAA-16 2001/032 2003/031 (sensor drift problems)
AQUA 2002/221 2009/365 (significant noise)
NOAA-18 2005/152 Present



CeeBee, your graph above is from AQUA channel 5. I would suggest it's known to not be a reliable source anymore, especially to compare with previous years.

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#1160377 - 19/01/2013 12:21 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: LittleDavey83]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
I wouldnt argue with Bill regarding UAH .

And only now after last ROM post I understand why Hansen aproved DEC GISS of only 0.44.

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#1160379 - 19/01/2013 12:24 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: LittleDavey83]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2640
As long as Roy Spencer continues to stand by it and put it up on the WWW I'll keep on using it.

It's good enough for Tony and Joe Bastardi to use the graphs so then it's good enough for me.
_________________________

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#1160390 - 19/01/2013 12:38 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
As long as Roy Spencer continues to stand by it and put it up on the WWW I'll keep on using it.

It's good enough for Tony and Joe Bastardi to use the graphs so then it's good enough for me.

R Spencer says exactly what Bill does smile

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#1160405 - 19/01/2013 13:16 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Vlasta]
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
Roy Spencer is the one who's written the caveats...so he stands by it only to the accuracy of those caveats. Why it's still available on the WWW when it's known to be biased, I'm unsure - I don't think it should be!

And that sort of attitude is what keeps dragging the debate lower and lower. Stand your ground, dispute bad science on both sides. If a dataset is known to be biased and this is not accounted for, don't use it!! Call out it's used, by either 'side'. Keep the clarity of the argument, don't let bad data stand regardless of who's using it. That's part of the reason I want to get to the bottom of the F&R vs others issue - if F&R is bad, it shouldn't be used; if the others are wrong, then the community has a lot of reassessing to do re. aerosols/etc.

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#1160746 - 20/01/2013 07:26 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: LittleDavey83]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2640

What will the simulations do next?

Recent conversations on the recent slowdown in warming has inspired an animation on how models simulate this phenomenon, and what it means for the evolution of global temperatures over the next few decades.



http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2013/what-will-the-simulations-do-next/
_________________________

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#1160759 - 20/01/2013 08:17 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
And that increasing gap between the reality of the global temperatures trends and the climate model predictions is an excellent example why trust in the climate model predictions and climate modelers are now dropping to close to zero.

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#1160789 - 20/01/2013 09:38 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: ROM]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Common weatherzone myth.. Are surface temperature records reliable?



Temperature reconstruction based on natural physical and biological measurements (Paleo, solid) and the instrumental temperature record (MLOST, dashed) relative to 1901-2000. The range of the paleo trends index values is coincidentally nearly the same as the GST although the quantities are different (index values versus temperature anomalies °C).

Confidence in climate science depends on the correlation of many sets of these data from many different sources in order to produce conclusive evidence of a global trend.


Edited by Enrique (20/01/2013 09:39)

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#1160818 - 20/01/2013 11:21 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

What will the simulations do next?

Recent conversations on the recent slowdown in warming has inspired an animation on how models simulate this phenomenon, and what it means for the evolution of global temperatures over the next few decades.



http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2013/what-will-the-simulations-do-next/




IPCC AR4 multi-model mean using the 1986-2005 baseline as described in the chart is 0.489C right now

How come they are pretending it is down at 0.2C.

All these charts are like this of course. They just pretend the forecast is lower than it really is and try to match it up to the observations and say "look we are right".

Nope.

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#1160821 - 20/01/2013 11:28 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Tom1234]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Based on evidence and numerous cartoons nobody can point to as being beyond doubt or even whether such evidence actually exists other than a lot of rantings of some climate science fringe dwellers in SkS and other alarmist, fringe science, catastrophe orientated, humanity hating, ideological based outfits elsewhere.

Meanwhile the UKMO, even Hansen, the archetypal global warming fear monger and head of NASA's GISS [ Goddard Institute of Space Studies ] plus the NOAA have all agreed that the global temps have plateaued or "paused" as they put it as they don't yet quite accept that their former hard held beliefs in the predictions of the climate models might have been seriously misplaced.

Meanwhile all these climate research outfits are now furiously looking for explanations for the plateauing of the global temperature trends over the last 15 years as we have seen in many posts right across the blogdom over the last few days and most expect that plateauing of temperatures to continue on for some more years ahead .
Beyond that time all their previous hard held beliefs in a constant upward trend in the global temperatures are now all under serious question and are being quietly put aside in the hope that the public will forget the hubris and total arrogance of those who thought and believed and proclaimed that they could foretell the climate future a hundred or two hundred or even a thousand years ahead.

And the explanations and hypothesis covering the plateauing of the global temperatures are numerous and multiplying but are all unproven and nearly all will remain just that, unproven and without any substantiation but that's science.

For out of this global warming science debacle will come a far more pragmatic and more cautious and nuanced science on the global climate as the researchers become aware that they have in their hubris reached far beyond their understandings and capabilities in ascribing to the global climate, trends and characteristics and phenomena that haven't occurred, won't occur and will never occur.
But other phenomena that the climate warming scientists have never considered, have denied or have written off but which have been proposed and postulated by the more skeptical scientists in the past will be found to be operative as the drivers of the global climate.

Meanwhile the CO2 fixated ideologists just keep harping right on on non stop about the continuing [ now barely measurable ] increase in global temperature demonstrating a pathological inability to even consider that the climate science is shifting and changing in ways that they, in their fixated ideology on man made, CO2 induced catastrophic global warming are finding impossible to countenance or accept.

For that their cause is doomed to be just another of a long list of lost causes that have been and will be destined for the dust bins of history. For most of climate science will not make the mistake again of hyping up some unproven catastrophic hypothesis just on the basis of a bunch of unproven, unvalidated, severely data suspect, computer generated climate models.




Edited by Seabreeze (21/01/2013 16:04)
Edit Reason: baiting

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#1160879 - 20/01/2013 13:50 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: ROM]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14228
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
...


Edited by Seabreeze (21/01/2013 16:02)
Edit Reason: off-topic
_________________________
Oct 31mm
2018 Total 774mm






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#1161406 - 21/01/2013 09:49 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: SBT]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Richard Muller's study has now passed peer review and is available here. Full citiation is:
Rohde R, Muller RA, Jacobsen R, Muller E, Perlmutter S, et al. (2012) A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinfor Geostat: An Overview 1:1

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#1161455 - 21/01/2013 12:04 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: __PG__]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Yes, it is.

Volume 1, a brand new organisation. In other words, who?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/19/berkeley-earth-finally-makes-peer-review/


After almost two years and some false starts, BEST now has one paper that has finally passed peer review. The text below is from the email release sent late Saturday. It was previously submitted to JGR Atmospheres according to their July 8th draft last year, but appears to have been rejected as they now indicate it has been published in Geoinformatics and Geostatistics, a journal I’ve not heard of until now.

(Added note: commenter Michael D. Smith points out is it Volume 1 issue 1, so this appears to be a brand new journal. Also troubling, on their GIGS journal home page , the link to the PDF of their Journal Flier gives only a single page, the cover art. Download Journal Flier. With such a lack of description in the front and center CV, one wonders how good this journal is.)


Also notable, Dr. Judith Curry’s name is not on this paper, though she gets a mention in the acknowledgements (along with Mosher and Zeke). I have not done any detailed analysis yet of this paper, as this is simply an announcement of its existence. – Anthony

Click on the link for the whole entry.
_________________________
https://avweather.net/

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#1161471 - 21/01/2013 12:21 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Anthony Violi]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
More papers will soon be invalid . Read about NOAA latest test . I have done it my self , coupled or rechecked with IR thermometer . Station siting is most important and as NOAA test confirms mostly night time temps are affected . I liked one comment and call it comment of the century . Wheel has just been reinvented .

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/20/no...ory/#more-77946

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#1161553 - 21/01/2013 14:57 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Vlasta]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
From Anthony Watts friends at BEST, even the industry heavies are now on Watts bad side lol.

A New Estimate of the Average
Earth Surface Land Temperature
Spanning 1753 to 2011
Robert Rohde


We report an estimate of the Earth’s average land surface
temperature for the period 1753 to 2011. To address issues
of potential station selection bias, we used a larger sampling of stations than had prior studies. For the period post 1880, our estimate is similar to those previously reported by other groups, although we report smaller uncertainties. The land temperature rise from the 1950s decade to the 2000s decade is 0.90 ± 0.05°C (95% confidence). Both maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased during the last century. Diurnal variations decreased from 1900 to 1987, and then increased; this increase is significant but not understood. The period of 1753 to 1850 is marked by sudden drops in land surface temperature that are coincident with known volcanism; the response function is approximately 1.5 ± 0.5°C per 100 Tg of atmospheric sulfate. This volcanism, combined with a simple proxy for anthropogenic effects (logarithm of the CO2
concentration), reproduces much of the variation in the land surface temperature record; the fit is not improved by the
addition of a solar forcing term. Thus, for this very simple model, solar forcing does not appear to contribute to the observed global warming of the past 250 years; the entire change can be modeled by a sum of volcanism and a single anthropogenic proxy. The residual variations include interannual and multi-decadal variability very similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

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#1161643 - 21/01/2013 16:45 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Tom1234]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2336
Loc: Mt Barker - SA
Its really lucky that the satellites measure the TLT then isn't it?
_________________________
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