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#1166356 - 26/01/2013 20:10 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: LightningGus]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
I seriously think people are underestimating the potential for the Brisbane River reaching flood levels during this event. It doesn't all hinge on dam releases.

It takes a flow of only 3,500-4,500m3 sec to get the Brisbane River to moderate flood level. Wivenhoe Dam released 1500m3 a sec on 3 occasions from Oct 2010 to Jan 2011. Its easily foreseeable that they may need to do so for this event (as opposed to the 7500m3 they released in 2011) Its very easy to add an extra 2000-3000m3sec from the Bremer and Lockyer if we get the rainfall forecast for areas below the dam.

Add up to half a metre of tidal surge in and suddenly you have the Brisbane River in flood. If we get widespread falls approaching 400mm that penetrate inland as forecast I expect the Brisbane River to hit moderate flood levels.

During 2008 (or 2009) we got an MSC went through Ipswich one evening dumping approx 200mm rain that pushed the Bremer up to moderate flood levels. That was a very localised fall. What we are looking at with this system is widespread heavy falls.

As always the caveat remains that it depends on the accuracy of the forecasts.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1166357 - 26/01/2013 20:10 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
Who's the user on Twitter? PM if you prefer. Not going to give him/her a hard time, just want to see where it's being posted. I feel sorry for people who do things like that, I really do. Just looking for some attention I guess!

EDIT: Sorry, I see the username is listed below the photo smile All good.


Edited by Ben Quinn (BSCH) (26/01/2013 20:12)

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#1166361 - 26/01/2013 20:15 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Phantom]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 438
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Originally Posted By: Phantom
Just looking at the Emerald radar it looks to me as if the center is heading east?


I get that impression too Phantom. It had drifted a little further West than initially predicted. Maybe now it'll defy the models and do a runner off into the Pacific. That would suit me fine. Not liking GFSs predicted path down through the Darling Downs at all because it will mean a hiding for us here.

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#1166362 - 26/01/2013 20:16 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Ben Quinn (BSCH)]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
Rain starting to get heavy again but not as bad like it was at 2pm this afternoon..

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#1166364 - 26/01/2013 20:18 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Ausfrigy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 9
Loc: Kilcoy Qld
Is it possible that the rain cell currently in the Gulf could join or follow the rain event in SE Qld?

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#1166365 - 26/01/2013 20:19 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Ben Quinn (BSCH)]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 438
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
You gotta love the internet Ben. It'll be interesting to see if your pic makes it to a news bulletin tonight. Anyone who got a clear pic of a tornado from today is a genius.

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#1166370 - 26/01/2013 20:22 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: buster]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
SEWS! And about time too - I was wondering how many tornadoes it would take for the Bureau to include it!

Transmitters serving the area within the Wide Bay and Burnett forecast district are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the
Wide Bay and Burnett,
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:20 pm Saturday, 26 January 2013.

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#1166371 - 26/01/2013 20:23 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Dave-Wx]
storms95 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Northside of Brisbane
wooooh... first time ive seen BOM mention Tornado's in SEQ!

Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office

Transmitters serving the area within the Wide Bay and Burnett forecast district
are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING
THIS MESSAGE.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF
For people in the
Wide Bay and Burnett,
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:20 pm Saturday, 26 January 2013.

Synoptic Situation:
At 7pm EST, Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald was slow moving over the Central
Highlands and Coalfields district, about 100km east southeast of Emerald and
220km west of Gladstone. Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to move south
southeast this evening and through Sunday, contracting into New South Wales on
Monday.

There have been multiple reports of tornado activity through the northern Wide
Bay this afternoon and evening. Current radar imagery suggests the strong
possibility of tornado activity affecting areas through the Wide Bay and Burnett
district.

Damaging winds, with gusts of around 110km/h are expected over the Wide Bay and
Burnett, northern stretches of the Sunshine Coast and northern parts of the
Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Wind gusts in excess of 125km/h may
occur and this could cause significant damage or destruction to homes and
property in localised areas.

These conditions are expected to contract southwards into the Southeast Coast
district and also extend west to the Great Dividing Range during Sunday. In this
area, destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h and tornadoes could cause
significant damage or destruction to homes and property in localised areas.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is expected over the Wide Bay
and Burnett district and Southeast Coast district, extending west to include the
Great Dividing Range and the Granite Belt. Six hour rainfall accumulations in
excess of 100mm are likely. This could lead to rapid river and stream rises.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 250mm are likely.


Edited by storms95 (26/01/2013 20:26)

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#1166372 - 26/01/2013 20:24 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Dave-Wx]
swamp-lady Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2011
Posts: 272
Loc: Toowoomba
Anyone willing to comment on the tornado warning map put out by Reed Timmer on fb? It extends all the way to Dalby and includes Toowoomba.
Link: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=...&type=1&theater

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#1166373 - 26/01/2013 20:25 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Ausfrigy]
Jeff Wehl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2011
Posts: 94
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
This could be a tragic mistake but I think theyre crazy to be running the dam now. With the speed the low is forecast to move over the area (possible mistake one) Wivenhoe will take the flow. As Locke is saying the problem here is storm surge, tides and local flows. Its a known brisbane flood scenario. Id be surprised to see much movement in the upper reaches but surge with intense local rain could cause some problems.

Would also like to support AC's views on the BoM warning system - if they want to persist with almost real time warnings then a second system outlining future potential would be well supported not only by the population but also by business.

Bring on the event!

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#1166375 - 26/01/2013 20:27 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Dave-Wx]
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
To all those who have asked - no the storms and rain in north Queensland will not move into southeast Queensland (two different systems), but we might see a few showers and storms persist after Oswald moves through...

Tornadoes will be most likely close to the coast (5-10km), most likely these are waterspouts moving onto land, similar to what happens in SW WA in their cold fronts.


Edited by Anthony Cornelius (26/01/2013 20:28)
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Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#1166376 - 26/01/2013 20:30 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Anthony Cornelius]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
Thanks for the link swamp-lady he seems pretty confident would like some other opinions on it as well though smile Going to be a bit of a worrying night!

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#1166379 - 26/01/2013 20:34 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Steven]
stormy_bec Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 328
Loc: Kimberley Station Qld
Thanks for the info AC

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#1166384 - 26/01/2013 20:38 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: stormy_bec]
swamp-lady Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2011
Posts: 272
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes very much appreciated AC smile

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#1166385 - 26/01/2013 20:38 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
MT Hallen 24 hr 75mm, calm, light rain.
A.C. I am in absolute agreement with you, QLD BOM needs a cleanup & seriously have a look at how our other states are handling difficult situations. The U.S. have a very good localised warning system in place, QLD BOM is way behind the times.
The word mini must be banned from the media for the description of a tornado unless
they want to give it a girls name & dress it in a short skirt. Bunch of wombats.

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#1166387 - 26/01/2013 20:40 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
MoonShadow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2007
Posts: 138
Loc: North Toowoomba
Another 54mms since 7.30AM today, totalling 121mms since 8PM Thursday night for this neck of the woods

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#1166388 - 26/01/2013 20:41 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: stormy_bec]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1049
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Pelting down here now.

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#1166389 - 26/01/2013 20:42 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Sandfly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Rockhampton
I've never seen 100mm in one day but I'd love to see it. I'm currently at Toorbul.
Where should I go tomorrow to get a chance of 100mm in 24hrs. North or South?
Any suggestions?
I'm mobile but not 4x4
_________________________
"The harder you work the luckier someone else becomes".


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#1166390 - 26/01/2013 20:46 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Coxy]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Originally Posted By: Coxy
Pelting down here now.


You are under the yellow blob on the radar which is almost at my door step looking at the 64km Brisbane loop
_________________________
________________________________________
Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain smile

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#1166391 - 26/01/2013 20:46 Re: Ex-TC Oswald - NE NSW SE QLD 24-29th Jan 2013 - PART THREE (Final Part) [Re: Sandfly]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hi Locke
Just read you post at top of page, welcome to my world.

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