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#1162629 - 22/01/2013 21:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scud]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 629
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I think yas have all summed it up well.The storms have been there well and truely on the ranges mainly but with unfavorable wind shear making it difficult for the storms to reach the coast.So so frustrating, especially when ya live in the semi tropics,suffer continuous hot humid weather,and have lots of days when the convergence is on ,but get nothing most of the time.I'm just gonna wait for a perfect day and head to the mountains in future.

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#1162663 - 22/01/2013 22:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scud]
Tejay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 584
Loc: SE QLD
Its a good point James, but still, the quality of storms up there hasn't been overly impressive either.
Note its probably cheaper to move to the US than buy a house at Tenterfield... At least there will be less trees!

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#1162903 - 23/01/2013 07:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tejay]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2813
Loc: collingwood park
Gfs has been consistent with large totals for the east coast of Qld, obviously its still early days but it should be making EMQs ears prick a little I'd imagine.
Be nice to get some good rain and see green grass again.
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#1162996 - 23/01/2013 09:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: james1977]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1643
Loc: Kingaroy
GFS is backing off from large totals for SEQ.

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#1163028 - 23/01/2013 09:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Chris Stumer]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 524
Loc: Doonan, Sunshine Coast
Sorry Chris I would have to disagree
Last runs have all shown consistently high totals see latest 18Z run below as example. Also EC is depicting significant rain for SEQ.



However I don't get the BOM latest forecast for Sunshine Coast and SEQ in general which is quite conservative

Sunshine Coast
Forecast for Wednesday
Mostly fine and partly cloudy, just a shower or two. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Precis: Mostly fine, shower or two. Max 31
UV Alert from 7:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Thursday A shower or two. Min 23Max 28
Friday A few showers. Min 23Max 30
Saturday A few showers. Min 23Max 29
Sunday A shower or two. Min 23Max 29
Monday A shower or two. Min 23Max 28
Tuesday A shower or two. Min 23Max 28

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#1163036 - 23/01/2013 10:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: grayarea]
Arpreb Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/01/2012
Posts: 29
The models have slowly been putting more rain around SEQ each run, especially the latest 18Z run. I'm thinking if the next few runs start aligning and stay consistent the BOM will come on board.


Edited by Arpreb (23/01/2013 10:01)

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#1163043 - 23/01/2013 10:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Arpreb]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
The BoM won't say much about this system affecting SE QLD just yet. Still some uncertaintity of it happening... They won't mentioned anything until this afternoons model runs at the earliest or during tomorrow.
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#1163049 - 23/01/2013 10:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1044
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Call me cynical but I'd bet my left nut it'll be well off the coast before it gets anywhere near SEQ.
Maybe I'm being hopeful more than cynical?

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#1163057 - 23/01/2013 10:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Coxy]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2813
Loc: collingwood park
Haha coxy, copy n pasted for future reference and starts sharpening knife just incase grin


Edited by james1977 (23/01/2013 10:26)
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#1163060 - 23/01/2013 10:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scud]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4740
Pretty much all the main models (EC, UK, JMA, GFS, ACCESS) & their ensembles currently suggest ex Oswald tracking down the QLD coast. A few such as EC suggest a remarkable scenario where it hugs the coast all the way down through SE QLD (with strong winds & a very sharp low level convergence zone on its southern flank) and onto the NSW coast where it then bombs as a nasty hybrid ECL. Others eject the storm out to sea by the time it gets down to around the central or SE QLD coast. Some also develop secondary lows to the S or SE of ex Oswald as it moves further south.

Having said all this, I've still seen the (uncommon) occasion when a tropical system has totally defied tight model consensus by either just fizzling out or moving the wrong way so it still pays to keep an open mind about it.

Below is the output from a recent run of the GFS ensemble showing the spread of forecast member tracks. Still a reasonably spread indicating some uncertainty but with the general S or SE'ly tendency that other ensembles such as those from the EC & UK have been suggesting for some days now:


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#1163066 - 23/01/2013 10:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: james1977]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1044
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: james1977
Haha coxy, copy n pasted for future reference and starts sharpening knife just incase grin


Maybe now is a good time to clarify I was referring to the nuts on my bicycle wheels? poke

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#1163091 - 23/01/2013 10:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Coxy]
~BlueBiYou~ Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 49
Loc: Nth Brisy - near Boondall Wetl...
^ ~giggling~ smile

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#1163095 - 23/01/2013 11:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: ~BlueBiYou~]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4368
Loc: Brisbane
Very dynamic situation at the moment. I'm not sure the models are able to fully cope with the number of variables. To throw a further spanner in the works we now have a small low spun up off the coast near Mackay.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1163116 - 23/01/2013 11:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Locke]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Yep agree Locke models are having a hard time getting a grip atm. Will keep us glued to each output for sure.

Someone could probably create a thread for this event now we will atleast have some enhanced shower activity in SEQ/NE NSW which is sure to spark up some interest.


Edited by Scottie A (23/01/2013 11:30)
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#1163159 - 23/01/2013 12:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Scottie A]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 629
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Heres hoping for a massive coastal hugging bomb triggering heavy showers and storms for next week.Surely to God it must be our turn!

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#1163238 - 23/01/2013 13:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2895
Loc: Mt Warren Park
looking at the satellite - would i be wrong in saying that there are "3" low's???? in QLD????
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#1163248 - 23/01/2013 13:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: pkgjmg]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1468
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I'm hoping se qld gets smashed with rain - quick get that pipe up and running for the dams to avoid and class actions. Actually will cost the same if the class action was successfull - so i hope it goes ahead.
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#1163369 - 23/01/2013 15:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: paulcirrus]
Arpreb Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/01/2012
Posts: 29
00z is out and its looking good





Edited by Arpreb (23/01/2013 15:44)

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#1164399 - 24/01/2013 10:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Arpreb]
LQQKN Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/08/2007
Posts: 1438
Loc: , tweed coast
Was a good storm yesterday west of casino sky just got really dark some good structure aswell. was frustyrating becouse roads woulds really go west enough, Tenterfeild rd has too many trees tho not a bad storm.


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#1167203 - 27/01/2013 15:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: LQQKN]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
paulcirrus: Your not wrong, lets put it that way. They are actually part of the same low, just at different altitudes. If you picture in your mind the low in a cross section it doesn't have perfect straight up and down walls (though some may come close) in fact usually far from straight. instead they often stretch and twist because of the different wind speed and direction at different altitudes. There can be many hundreds of Km difference between areas of simlar rotation and pressure that you would normally think would be more or less aligned. I wish I had some examples handy, Around Jan 5 near wagga the main trough was spread around 200km from where its was on the ground compared to 700Mb and higher.

If you are able to look at Forecast models of the wind you can often see the center of a low of trough appears in different locations when you look at different heights. Also from this Lows and troughs can indeed split in two or more, into upper or lower troughs etc. Certainly amazing weather we've been having all over the country, from one extreme to the other. With the exception of property damage, injury and loss of life, this is very exciting weather.
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