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#1170785 - 07/02/2013 08:44 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
The lastest SST data supports Dr Roy Spencers:

Quote:
The most common cause of such warm spikes (when there is no El Nino to blame) is a temporary increase in convective heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. This would suggest that the global average sea surface temperature anomaly might have actually cooled in January, but I have not checked to see if that is the case.


Global SST anomalies cooled considerably in January as Dr Spencer suggested.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/01/...anomaly-update/

Whilst the January 2013 UAH result was high I cant see that it warrants quotes like "no cooling trend" and "2013 is hotter than the hottest years on record". By the same logic if we get a single month result of cooler anomalies then is climate change all over? Its a single months result due to a specific weather phenomenon and it is a knee jerk reaction to immediately attribute it to CAGW without any apparent investigation of cause on your part.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1170790 - 07/02/2013 09:06 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Locke]
snafu Offline
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Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
2012 was also warmest "La Niña year" on record......NOT!

Note: On January 15, 2012, NCDC announced as part of its 2012 Global Climate Report that 2012 was the warmest La Niña year on record. While there are a variety of approaches for defining a La Niña or El Niño year, NCDC's criteria is defined as when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña or El Niño threshold as defined by NOAA Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The list of historical La Niña years released on January 15 was based on an ONI dataset in force in early 2012 and used a 1971–2000 base period. During the course of the year, CPC introduced an ONI dataset using different base periods for determining anomalies for each year, with the most recent years (1995 to date) utilizing the 1981–2010 base period. Because of long-term warming trends in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, applying this more recent base period allows for better discernment of the temperature patterns needed to identify El Niño and La Niña years. In the most recent version of the dataset, using the newer base period methodology, 2006 and 2009 are now classified as La Niña years. The global average temperature in both 2006 and 2009 was 0.02°C (0.04°F) higher than 2012, making these two years the warmest La Niña years on record. NCDC has updated (via strikeout) our Annual Global Climate report to reflect the most current CPC ONI dataset.

With binary definitions of El Niño or La Niña, small changes in processing the data can affect the classification of weak El Niños or La Niñas. Despite these reclassifications, the general conclusions are similar from previous work: (1) global temperature anomalies for each phase (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral) have been increasing over time and (2) on average, global temperatures during El Niño years are higher than neutral years, which in turn, are higher than La Niña years.

NCDC continually examines its practices and definitions as science, datasets, and the understanding they bring improve. Thus, given the nature of our current method of classifying years as El Niño or La Niña, NCDC plans to re-examine and employ the best available definitions and datasets to robustly characterize the influence of El Niño and LaNiña on annual global temperatures.


h/t to Bob Tisdale & WUWT
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
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#1170791 - 07/02/2013 09:07 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Locke]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
Since your so sure that were headed for "the hottest year on record" Ceebee any possibility of a prediction of next months UAH result based on your clear understanding of what is generating those UAH temps?
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1170795 - 07/02/2013 09:52 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Locke]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: Locke
The lastest SST data supports Dr Roy Spencers:

Quote:
The most common cause of such warm spikes (when there is no El Nino to blame) is a temporary increase in convective heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. This would suggest that the global average sea surface temperature anomaly might have actually cooled in January, but I have not checked to see if that is the case.


Global SST anomalies cooled considerably in January as Dr Spencer suggested.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/01/...anomaly-update/

Whilst the January 2013 UAH result was high I cant see that it warrants quotes like "no cooling trend" and "2013 is hotter than the hottest years on record". By the same logic if we get a single month result of cooler anomalies then is climate change all over? Its a single months result due to a specific weather phenomenon and it is a knee jerk reaction to immediately attribute it to CAGW without any apparent investigation of cause on your part.



You misrepresented what I said by leaving some words out of my full sentence. What I said in full was:

2013 is hotter than the hottest years on record so far.

I also posted what Lucia said over at the blackboard which was:

"Wow! That’s some high jumping! Up to +0.506C from +0.206C! With that kind of start out of the gates, maybe temperature will break a record this year."









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#1170803 - 07/02/2013 11:06 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
I don't think I am misrepresenting given the context in which you posted. The term "hottest year on record" is so frequently used by CAGW advocates that it certainly is no mystery when it appears as part of a sentence in the temperature trend thead of the claim change section of these forums as to exactly what you were trying to convey.

If not perhaps you can clarify for us exactly what you were trying to convey. What was the point of the 2 UAH related posts.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1170806 - 07/02/2013 11:21 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Locke]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA


Edited by bd bucketingdown (07/02/2013 11:24)

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#1170808 - 07/02/2013 11:26 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Bob Tidsdale SST prelim data shows cooling...
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/01/...anomaly-update/

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#1170816 - 07/02/2013 12:59 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
I happen to like crayon drawings...



2013 is hotter than the hottest years on record so far...



I happen to like using real numbers rather than crayon.

Check out Land surface temperatures in December, 2012.

Down -0.62C in one month. (Crutemp4, first column, the rest are error bars).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crute...bal_n+s_monthly






Edited by Bill Illis (07/02/2013 13:02)

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#1170837 - 07/02/2013 17:01 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Locke]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Originally Posted By: Locke

So yes January was a warm month for the UAH data. What does this mean in the general scheme of things. Certainly not what you seem to be implying which is that 1 months UAH results somehow overrides the last 16-17 years of data which shows at best a flat temperature trend.

It ain't flat.

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#1170842 - 07/02/2013 17:40 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: __PG__]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
It may as well be.





_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1170843 - 07/02/2013 17:41 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: __PG__]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
0.1C rise in 16 years or a trend that indicates an increase in global temperatures of 0.62 C in a hundred years time scares the s**t out of me shocked
[ /sarc ]

That is about the same temperature trend we have had since coming out of the LIA 160 years ago, a temperature increase of around 0.6 to 0.7 C per century.

Has anybody noticed?


Edited by ROM (07/02/2013 17:46)

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#1170844 - 07/02/2013 17:48 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: ROM]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
RSS - same period; 1996 - present




_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1170849 - 07/02/2013 18:46 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: snafu]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5076
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Yep. When the error mmargin is bigger than the increase(a lot bigger that is), you really have to wonder where the hype comes from.

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#1170868 - 07/02/2013 20:58 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Brett Guy]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Easy to know where it comes from Brett.

The top. And then infiltrates from there at their own volition.

As ROM points out, it might even be lower than that because the datasets are so corrupted.
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#1170870 - 07/02/2013 21:15 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Anthony Violi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6928
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...... and the silent masses have already noticed that.

Its just that they get on with life, and not dependant on political correctness/lest lose your grant - so dont have the primeval need to publish cr&p to keep the spin and grants (wages) coming.

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#1170894 - 07/02/2013 23:56 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: Brett Guy]
George M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 98
Re #1170849 "When the error mmargin is bigger than the increase(a lot bigger that is), you really have to wonder where the hype comes from."

The trend of 0.036 ± 0.204 deg C/decade (2σ) does not include the absolute error i.e. the 0.204 deg C is not the error but the 95 per cent confidence interval or the 2σ (2 x standard deviations) interval. There is 95 per cent confidence that the trend lies within the range of values - 0.168 deg C to + 0.240 deg C. Going to a 99.7 per cent confidence interval would produce a trend of 0.036 ± 0.306 deg C/decade (3σ).

The reason why the 2σ interval is so large is because there are monthly temperatures used in the plot which exacerbates the variation among the data because of seasonal variation. The size of the 2σ interval is greatly reduced when using yearly data (not monthly data) to get the decadal-averaged figures as it removes the seasonal variations. I'm guessing that stating a figure of 0.036 ± 0.204 deg C/decade (2σ) can be questioned on statistical grounds as it assumes that the data is normally distributed (normal as in bell-shaped). But, that's just a guess as the original link has not been supplied with the diagram in #1170844. Also, without the link, it's not evident whether the plotted curve has been drawn from a running monthly mean or aggregated monthly mean.

Finally, actual "error margins" or absolute errors must be of the order of thousandths of a degree as temperature trends are quoted to thousandths of a degree. By convention, absolute errors must be expressed as one significant figure, i.e. can't have more than one digit in them, and the number of decimal places in the measurement and the absolute error must be the same. Based on this convention, expressing the trend with its "error margin" would have the trend per decade being anywhere from 0.036 ± 0.001 deg C to 0.036 ± 0.009 deg C.

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#1170897 - 08/02/2013 00:44 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: George M]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
George M. The graph above uses a 12 month 'moving average' as SkS call it.

Here is a 1 month 'moving average':



Here is a 24 month 'moving average':



and here is a 5year (60 month) 'moving average':



Unlike the WfT graph, the SkS 'calculator' doesn't generate a URL, you need to go here and enter in the data yourself and do a screen capture of the graph.

....BTW..I don't use 'Auto Correct'.



_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

Top
#1170899 - 08/02/2013 01:11 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: snafu]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
While I have your attention George M. Can you answer this question?

HADCrut4 - 1900 to present - 10 year 'moving average':



I am lead to believe that the warming of the 2nd half of last century was/is caused by CO2.

What caused the warming and cooling during the first half of the century?

CO2 levels at the start of the century are reported to be ~280-300ppm rising rapidly to current levels from ~1960 odd. The planet was still cooling (till around 1975) whilst CO2 was climbing at a rapid pace.

Much the same as now. CO2 still climbing and yet temps have 'stabilized' over the past 15+ years (depending on data source used). As I pointed out earlier (in another thread) these 'steps' are approx. 35-40 years duration.


_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

Top
#1170904 - 08/02/2013 05:41 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: George M]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5076
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: George M
Re #1170849 "When the error mmargin is bigger than the increase(a lot bigger that is), you really have to wonder where the hype comes from."

The trend of 0.036 ± 0.204 deg C/decade (2σ) does not include the absolute error i.e. the 0.204 deg C is not the error but the 95 per cent confidence interval or the 2σ (2 x standard deviations) interval. There is 95 per cent confidence that the trend lies within the range of values - 0.168 deg C to + 0.240 deg C. Going to a 99.7 per cent confidence interval would produce a trend of 0.036 ± 0.306 deg C/decade (3σ).

The reason why the 2σ interval is so large is because there are monthly temperatures used in the plot which exacerbates the variation among the data because of seasonal variation. The size of the 2σ interval is greatly reduced when using yearly data (not monthly data) to get the decadal-averaged figures as it removes the seasonal variations. I'm guessing that stating a figure of 0.036 ± 0.204 deg C/decade (2σ) can be questioned on statistical grounds as it assumes that the data is normally distributed (normal as in bell-shaped). But, that's just a guess as the original link has not been supplied with the diagram in #1170844. Also, without the link, it's not evident whether the plotted curve has been drawn from a running monthly mean or aggregated monthly mean.

Finally, actual "error margins" or absolute errors must be of the order of thousandths of a degree as temperature trends are quoted to thousandths of a degree. By convention, absolute errors must be expressed as one significant figure, i.e. can't have more than one digit in them, and the number of decimal places in the measurement and the absolute error must be the same. Based on this convention, expressing the trend with its "error margin" would have the trend per decade being anywhere from 0.036 ± 0.001 deg C to 0.036 ± 0.009 deg C.


Pedantics aside, in the real world it is an error margin.

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#1170907 - 08/02/2013 05:59 Re: Temperature Trends [Re: snafu]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: snafu
While I have your attention George M. Can you answer this question?

HADCrut4 - 1900 to present - 10 year 'moving average':



I am lead to believe that the warming of the 2nd half of last century was/is caused by CO2.

What caused the warming and cooling during the first half of the century?

CO2 levels at the start of the century are reported to be ~280-300ppm rising rapidly to current levels from ~1960 odd. The planet was still cooling (till around 1975) whilst CO2 was climbing at a rapid pace.

Much the same as now. CO2 still climbing and yet temps have 'stabilized' over the past 15+ years (depending on data source used). As I pointed out earlier (in another thread) these 'steps' are approx. 35-40 years duration.




Snafu - do you read any of the papers that you post here? The reason I ask is because you posted two papers a few weeks ago that answers your question about what caused the warming and cooling during the first half of the century.



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