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#1174385 - 21/02/2013 22:38 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17863
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Early days and I hope it's wrong. It will mean more dry weather up here and our window is closing.
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#1175188 - 23/02/2013 18:23 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 930
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Mundingb...
The same pattern that I noticed off NW Australia that has led to the low developing in that area has now emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria, leading me to suggest that tropical cyclogenesis in the GOC is a distinct possibility in about 10 days time - ie. around March 4th or thereabouts.
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#1178863 - 01/03/2013 16:24 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Sandfly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Rockhampton
The Gulf is looking rather good at the moment.
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#1179015 - 02/03/2013 00:10 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Sandfly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Rockhampton
I know the models are not suggesting anything in the gulf but with the amount of activity there ATM but I can't help but think this is the Elephant in the room.
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#1179578 - 03/03/2013 01:02 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Soloman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2004
Posts: 120
Loc: Darwin, NT
some very heavy rain and windy weather in darwin tonight.. looks like some action happening above Maningrida.

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#1179679 - 03/03/2013 11:32 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4339
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like a circulation in the GOC when viewing a 6hr radar loop for Weipa.

If the 18Z GFS forecast is right, this will become a low that crosses the Cape into the Coral Sea and becomes the low that stalls off Mackay in a few days time.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1179682 - 03/03/2013 11:39 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yes and actually Locke if you look at the Warruwi 256 or 512 radar in the NT. It really looks like something developing to the north of the NT coast. BoM have the MT across the base of the Top End so i guess it wouldnt be classed as converging winds into the MT ?

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#1179691 - 03/03/2013 12:24 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Gulf definitely looking promising indeed. We really need it here to get our rainfall back up to avg frown

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#1179700 - 03/03/2013 12:46 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 879
Loc: Bowen
US Navy site has interest in GOC system with an invest 91P on system. Great westerly monsoon flow across NT running into system , shear is good, plenty of vorticity and SST's above 31 degrees gives this a fair chance in my books.

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#1179708 - 03/03/2013 12:57 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
There was some modelling earlier that had a low coming out of the Gulf and into the CS... conditions are right for that to happen
Here's Rammb http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH912013
LLCC is due west of Weipa (note the 16km visible is wrong... its the Vanuatu thingy I think)
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#1179724 - 03/03/2013 13:43 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: TSVWeatherNerd]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4850
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
The same pattern that I noticed off NW Australia that has led to the low developing in that area has now emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria, leading me to suggest that tropical cyclogenesis in the GOC is a distinct possibility in about 10 days time - ie. around March 4th or thereabouts.


OK. I am going to pay a bit of attention to your predictions after this.

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#1179728 - 03/03/2013 14:12 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Brett Guy]
Night Rain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/03/2010
Posts: 260
Loc: Yungaburra Qld
Yep, me too, as I'm working out in Karumba, Normanton and Mornington Island this week.

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#1179733 - 03/03/2013 14:45 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Does look promising at first look of a Sat image. Well done TSVWNerd with your work. If this LOW does spin up abit, any ideas on movement. Slow drift across the Cape and off SE into the never never or a possible chance of a drifter down the QLD coast like GFS is hinting at. Its funny over the years and especially here in WA that systems can often follow a similiar path to a previous system that year. More flooding down the east coast??
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#1179737 - 03/03/2013 14:50 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
That flooding better not be South of like Mackay or I'm gonna be annoyed poke

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#1179740 - 03/03/2013 15:06 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Things]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2104
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: Things
That flooding better not be South of like Mackay or I'm gonna be annoyed poke


Things, I have had more than my fair share this year. I vote that flooding goes to you instead. grin

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#1179744 - 03/03/2013 15:12 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 641
Loc: Townsville
Latest Access R still not looking at much happening in the Gulf.

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#1179747 - 03/03/2013 15:23 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Things]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Things
That flooding better not be South of like Mackay or I'm gonna be annoyed poke


if you really want to be annoyed, have a look at the gfs combined rainfall model
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2013030218:0:192:nqld:nul#sc
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1179749 - 03/03/2013 15:25 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Hah, so it goes over Mackay instead. Let me retry that ...

That flooding better not be south of Townsville or I'm gonna be really annoyed grin *crosses fingers*

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#1179750 - 03/03/2013 15:27 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Oh that's just cruel Mick!
300mm for Mackay and 25mm for us!
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1179757 - 03/03/2013 15:58 Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
hehe, sorry guys. couldnt resist. but we dont fair much better here either. still models are chopping and changing, we just have to hope the weather gods want to smile on us.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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