#1174385 - 21/02/2013 22:38
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
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Early days and I hope it's wrong. It will mean more dry weather up here and our window is closing.
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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."
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#1175188 - 23/02/2013 18:23
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
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The same pattern that I noticed off NW Australia that has led to the low developing in that area has now emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria, leading me to suggest that tropical cyclogenesis in the GOC is a distinct possibility in about 10 days time - ie. around March 4th or thereabouts.
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Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.
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#1178863 - 01/03/2013 16:24
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Rockhampton
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The Gulf is looking rather good at the moment.
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"The harder you work the luckier someone else becomes".
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#1179015 - 02/03/2013 00:10
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Rockhampton
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I know the models are not suggesting anything in the gulf but with the amount of activity there ATM but I can't help but think this is the Elephant in the room.
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"The harder you work the luckier someone else becomes".
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#1179578 - 03/03/2013 01:02
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/10/2004
Posts: 120
Loc: Darwin, NT
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some very heavy rain and windy weather in darwin tonight.. looks like some action happening above Maningrida.
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#1179679 - 03/03/2013 11:32
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4440
Loc: Brisbane
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Looks like a circulation in the GOC when viewing a 6hr radar loop for Weipa.
If the 18Z GFS forecast is right, this will become a low that crosses the Cape into the Coral Sea and becomes the low that stalls off Mackay in a few days time.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.
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#1179700 - 03/03/2013 12:46
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 917
Loc: Bowen
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US Navy site has interest in GOC system with an invest 91P on system. Great westerly monsoon flow across NT running into system , shear is good, plenty of vorticity and SST's above 31 degrees gives this a fair chance in my books.
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#1179708 - 03/03/2013 12:57
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
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There was some modelling earlier that had a low coming out of the Gulf and into the CS... conditions are right for that to happen Here's Rammb http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH912013LLCC is due west of Weipa (note the 16km visible is wrong... its the Vanuatu thingy I think)
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1179724 - 03/03/2013 13:43
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5072
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
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The same pattern that I noticed off NW Australia that has led to the low developing in that area has now emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria, leading me to suggest that tropical cyclogenesis in the GOC is a distinct possibility in about 10 days time - ie. around March 4th or thereabouts. OK. I am going to pay a bit of attention to your predictions after this.
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#1179728 - 03/03/2013 14:12
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Brett Guy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 22/03/2010
Posts: 262
Loc: Yungaburra Qld
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Yep, me too, as I'm working out in Karumba, Normanton and Mornington Island this week.
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#1179744 - 03/03/2013 15:12
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 659
Loc: Townsville
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Latest Access R still not looking at much happening in the Gulf.
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#1179747 - 03/03/2013 15:23
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Things]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
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That flooding better not be South of like Mackay or I'm gonna be annoyed if you really want to be annoyed, have a look at the gfs combined rainfall model http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2013030218:0:192:nqld:nul#sc
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld - March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm) April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm) 2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)
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#1179749 - 03/03/2013 15:25
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
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Hah, so it goes over Mackay instead. Let me retry that ... That flooding better not be south of Townsville or I'm gonna be really annoyed  *crosses fingers*
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#1179750 - 03/03/2013 15:27
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
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Oh that's just cruel Mick! 300mm for Mackay and 25mm for us!
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius
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#1179757 - 03/03/2013 15:58
Re: NT & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2012/2013
[Re: Mick10]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
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hehe, sorry guys. couldnt resist. but we dont fair much better here either. still models are chopping and changing, we just have to hope the weather gods want to smile on us.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld - March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm) April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm) 2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)
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