Early days and I hope it's wrong. It will mean more dry weather up here and our window is closing.

The same pattern that I noticed off NW Australia that has led to the low developing in that area has now emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria, leading me to suggest that tropical cyclogenesis in the GOC is a distinct possibility in about 10 days time - ie. around March 4th or thereabouts.

The Gulf is looking rather good at the moment.

I know the models are not suggesting anything in the gulf but with the amount of activity there ATM but I can't help but think this is the Elephant in the room.

some very heavy rain and windy weather in darwin tonight.. looks like some action happening above Maningrida.

Looks like a circulation in the GOC when viewing a 6hr radar loop for Weipa.

If the 18Z GFS forecast is right, this will become a low that crosses the Cape into the Coral Sea and becomes the low that stalls off Mackay in a few days time.

Yes and actually Locke if you look at the Warruwi 256 or 512 radar in the NT. It really looks like something developing to the north of the NT coast. BoM have the MT across the base of the Top End so i guess it wouldnt be classed as converging winds into the MT ?

Gulf definitely looking promising indeed. We really need it here to get our rainfall back up to avg

US Navy site has interest in GOC system with an invest 91P on system. Great westerly monsoon flow across NT running into system , shear is good, plenty of vorticity and SST's above 31 degrees gives this a fair chance in my books.

There was some modelling earlier that had a low coming out of the Gulf and into the CS... conditions are right for that to happen
Here's Rammb http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH912013
LLCC is due west of Weipa (note the 16km visible is wrong... its the Vanuatu thingy I think)

OK. I am going to pay a bit of attention to your predictions after this.

Yep, me too, as I'm working out in Karumba, Normanton and Mornington Island this week.

Does look promising at first look of a Sat image. Well done TSVWNerd with your work. If this LOW does spin up abit, any ideas on movement. Slow drift across the Cape and off SE into the never never or a possible chance of a drifter down the QLD coast like GFS is hinting at. Its funny over the years and especially here in WA that systems can often follow a similiar path to a previous system that year. More flooding down the east coast??

That flooding better not be South of like Mackay or I'm gonna be annoyed

Things, I have had more than my fair share this year. I vote that flooding goes to you instead.

Latest Access R still not looking at much happening in the Gulf.

if you really want to be annoyed, have a look at the gfs combined rainfall model
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2013030218:0:192:nqld:nul#sc

Hah, so it goes over Mackay instead. Let me retry that ...

That flooding better not be south of Townsville or I'm gonna be really annoyed *crosses fingers*

Oh that's just cruel Mick!
300mm for Mackay and 25mm for us!

hehe, sorry guys. couldnt resist. but we dont fair much better here either. still models are chopping and changing, we just have to hope the weather gods want to smile on us.