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#1178289 - 28/02/2013 00:55 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
Yep SST and wind shear all present and correct in CS. MJO and MT coming to the party. Something will come in from the South Pacific soon enough.


Edited by gawain (28/02/2013 00:57)

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#1178616 - 28/02/2013 22:29 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Excellent chance of a TC forming over or near Vanuatu.
Gawain and Fiji Met have been hinting at this (sorry for my tardy reply) and to me it looks like a goer. Question is intensification prior to the graveyard should it cause any damage.
Upper divergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Lower convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
Shear tendency
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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#1178749 - 01/03/2013 10:33 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
cyclone sally Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2011
Posts: 83
Loc: 40km south of Gladstone
Hey Boomer. Any idea how quickly this cyclone might form? Flying back to Port Vila tomorrow afternoon.

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#1178961 - 01/03/2013 22:01 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Hmmm Sal it may not form by then.. but the system will be over Vila by tomorrow arvo.
Methinks approach and landing will be interesting.
While there is an invest on it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH902013
the shear in region is pretty severe. It's main effect may end up being heavy rain across Vanuatu.
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#1179474 - 02/03/2013 22:09 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Shouldn't really bother anybody... however the fun begins next week as the MJO and the MT make their presence felt.
Looks like Queensland may get a crossing with a system that heads toward the Fijian AOR before picking up ridge ride back west.
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#1179649 - 03/03/2013 10:22 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2910
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Looking interesting boomer. I would think people in that Fiji area and around should start preparing for flooding or possible cyclone.

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#1179657 - 03/03/2013 10:31 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Chef Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2010
Posts: 98
Loc: Whitsundays, QLD.
For anyone intrested, Inside the Tornado,a good weather doco about to start on 7mate

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#1180104 - 04/03/2013 00:20 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Interesting... JTWC completely disinterested but Fiji Met is not ruling out a low chance of formation.
And quite close to Fiji.
Trust your local guys.
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1180159 - 04/03/2013 08:55 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
cyclone sally Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2011
Posts: 83
Loc: 40km south of Gladstone
Originally Posted By: boomer
Hmmm Sal it may not form by then.. but the system will be over Vila by tomorrow arvo.
Methinks approach and landing will be interesting.
While there is an invest on it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH902013
the shear in region is pretty severe. It's main effect may end up being heavy rain across Vanuatu.


Boomer, you were right about an "interesting" approach and landing!! Had thick cloud at 37,000 feet for over an hour on approach. Does "severe shear" feel like extreme turbulence when you fly through it??Never again! Keep us posted on any upcoming events. Thanks.

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#1180387 - 04/03/2013 19:12 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Tropical Gal Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2010
Posts: 79
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Okay so it looks like we're in for some very interesting weather over the coming week to 10 days.  I will be watching this site very closely.

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#1180432 - 04/03/2013 20:42 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
TD 16F has been brewing for 5 days now with Fiji Met going for moderate chance of TC formation in 3 days time and say wind shear and upper winds are keeping it down. A SE track for a possible TC into the graveyard seems likely.
But I see one model has a decent sized TC coming from just north of this same area and travelling west towards SE Queensland. However this model is 10 plus days out. And it is a model.
Just thinking if TC 16F hangs in there for another 5 days while uppers and wind shear changes in it's favour...


Edited by gawain (04/03/2013 20:43)

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#1180445 - 04/03/2013 21:29 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: cyclone sally]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: cyclone sally
[quote=boomer]


Boomer, you were right about an "interesting" approach and landing!! Had thick cloud at 37,000 feet for over an hour on approach. Does "severe shear" feel like extreme turbulence when you fly through it??Never again! Keep us posted on any upcoming events. Thanks.


Yep, LoL, unnerving isn't it? Thing is you knew it was coming and that makes it a hell of a lot easier.
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#1180446 - 04/03/2013 21:36 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: gawain]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: gawain
TD 16F has been brewing for 5 days now with Fiji Met going for moderate chance of TC formation in 3 days time and say wind shear and upper winds are keeping it down. A SE track for a possible TC into the graveyard seems likely.
But I see one model has a decent sized TC coming from just north of this same area and travelling west towards SE Queensland. However this model is 10 plus days out. And it is a model.
Just thinking if TC 16F hangs in there for another 5 days while uppers and wind shear changes in it's favour...

Great idea... first to 16F... it should be taken seriously, there is now every chance it will develop and may, just may, push onto the big island.
As to the latter... Gawain you would kill Queenslands storm chasing ambitions but said system may not be captured, opartially or fully, and could head further east.. too many variables to thinks as to track.


Edited by boomer (04/03/2013 21:37)
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#1180469 - 04/03/2013 22:33 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
zuldjan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 110
Originally Posted By: boomer
Originally Posted By: gawain
TD 16F has been brewing for 5 days now with Fiji Met going for moderate chance of TC formation in 3 days time and say wind shear and upper winds are keeping it down. A SE track for a possible TC into the graveyard seems likely.
But I see one model has a decent sized TC coming from just north of this same area and travelling west towards SE Queensland. However this model is 10 plus days out. And it is a model.
Just thinking if TC 16F hangs in there for another 5 days while uppers and wind shear changes in it's favour...

Great idea... first to 16F... it should be taken seriously, there is now every chance it will develop and may, just may, push onto the big island.
As to the latter... Gawain you would kill Queenslands storm chasing ambitions but said system may not be captured, opartially or fully, and could head further east.. too many variables to thinks as to track.


Which model is picking up the 10 day'er, I can't find it.
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#1180486 - 04/03/2013 23:08 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld

Zuldjan
Should be here right at the end.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2013030306_ANZ_GFS_SFC_WINDS_SLP

I guess I'm linking it to TD 16F as its a similar area and TD 16F feels like a stayer but looking at this model again appears shows TD 16F going SE to the graveyard
AND then a TC heading west to Queensland. It is a model.

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#1180493 - 04/03/2013 23:17 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
Yes it is an unlikely senario Boomer.
But it certainly feels like TD 16F has got some stamina.Fiji & Vanuatu Mets keep extending their forecast of a moderate chance of TC forming. Vanuatu Met has mod chance Thursday Friday and their moderate chance has 10 per cent more goodness than other comparable brands! What chances of west upper winds in the area weakening at weekend? I'd love to see another Freda style storm.


Edited by gawain (04/03/2013 23:18)

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#1180503 - 04/03/2013 23:51 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
Hmmm just checked out OCCs update. It's all looking very eastward moving in the foreseeable future.

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#1180513 - 05/03/2013 00:44 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
Then again TD16F might go Fujiwhara style with TC Sandra in the CS.

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#1182316 - 09/03/2013 22:57 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Sandra will end up within the Fijian AOR but will then slip back out.
Thing is models have it pinging New Cal in a big way.
Not so sure.
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#1182378 - 10/03/2013 10:45 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Link to track map from Nadi, Fiji
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

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