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#1182730 - 12/03/2013 07:49 Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 4738
Loc: Bribie Island
Well, the JTWC have upgraded this system to medium with a number of other models seeing development once it enters the Coral Sea including UKMet (see below). Certainly this morning's satellite animation is showing flaring convection and good outflow developing.

Quote:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 139E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM GOVE AIRPORT DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE YET FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE LLCC. A 111448Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS AND A 111540Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS AND SLP
VALUES AS LOW AS 1002 MB; 24-HOUR SLP DECREASES RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALBEIT WITH MARGINAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


Quote:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.9S 137.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 12.03.2013 11.5S 137.5E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.03.2013 11.3S 139.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.03.2013 10.9S 142.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.03.2013 11.5S 145.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.03.2013 12.6S 148.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.03.2013 13.3S 151.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.03.2013 13.9S 153.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.03.2013 14.9S 155.5E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.03.2013 16.0S 156.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.03.2013 17.6S 157.0E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.03.2013 18.9S 157.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.03.2013 20.1S 157.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



Edited by teckert (14/03/2013 13:13)
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#1182734 - 12/03/2013 08:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
wilyms Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 6
Loc: East Bundaberg
As long as it doesn't turn right before the Cape the bottom half of Qld will be a lot happier!

Or if it does I guess our FNQ friends would like it drift down to say TVL and then shoot out into the Coral Sea never to be seen again with the surfers catching some gnarly swells as it drifts south offshore....ah utopia...

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#1182735 - 12/03/2013 08:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Fujiwhara_Effect Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2011
Posts: 367
Loc: trinity beach
no not out near townsville!!! come out between cooktown and pt douglas develop then swing back into cairns lol
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#1182738 - 12/03/2013 08:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Maybe its another SE Swinger, I had hopes for Sandra but the girl let me down - badly! lol
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#1182740 - 12/03/2013 08:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 32
Loc: Cairns
Looking forward to tomorrow to see what we experience up here!

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#1182786 - 12/03/2013 11:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6753
Loc: Bohle Plains
Sit in the GoC for a while, then swing around into the CS, intensify into a little cat 1 or 2, then cross near Cairns, would give us a drenching while it's in the gulf, and Townsville a drenching when it crosses, and we can all be happy grin

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#1182796 - 12/03/2013 13:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 347
Loc: Edmonton QLD
At this stage is it more likely to follow the same track as TC Sandra then a coastal crossing??

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#1182797 - 12/03/2013 13:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6753
Loc: Bohle Plains
Depends how fast it moves, if it can stay in the GoC for a little longer than expected it could come back to the coast as TSVWeatherNerd explained in the CS thread. So far it seems the most likely scenario though frown

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#1182798 - 12/03/2013 13:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
So far, while early days, none of the CMC and UKMO multi members have it coming back toward the coast (track plot only out to about 153 so a turn cannot be ruled out... but not looking good).
As for a crossing point, the deteministic is close to the tip of Cape York near the Jardinewith some members in the Straits, while the furthest south are north of Coen.
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#1182821 - 12/03/2013 15:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
lombogirl Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2013
Posts: 8
Hopefully not too close to Coen but if the ant barometer is precise we will be in for some action here in Coen!

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#1182828 - 12/03/2013 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 239
Loc: kuranda, qld
Rotation underway in area BOM indicated -125 naut. miles east of Gove/Nhulunbuy. BOM says moving east at 5 knots and 45knt squalls by Wednesday. That's pretty solid. If it stays moving at or at less than 5knots thru the gulf I wonder how much power it can pick before it hits CYP?


Edited by gawain (12/03/2013 15:46)

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#1182835 - 12/03/2013 16:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Thunder Hunter Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/10/2008
Posts: 1
Loc: Nhulunbuy
It's about time we started to get some weather over here. It's been a dry as a bone for months.

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#1182836 - 12/03/2013 16:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 32
Loc: Cairns
People are pretty complacent up here with regards to TC's/lows, but we are getting some great information out of the ABC and BoM that I hope people are listening to. Whilst it's not a TC, I don't think it's to be sniffed at, especially given some of the 'structures' that are considered to be homes up here.

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#1182841 - 12/03/2013 16:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
100kph plus winds expected. Easily enough to pick up a piece of loose corrugated iron and take somebody out.
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#1182846 - 12/03/2013 16:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Procella Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2013
Posts: 60
Loc: Caravonica QLD
Opinion seems to be all over the place on this one. Would I be correct in saying that the consensus is that this will cross the cape head in the CS.

Hard to get a take on thoughts of where it will go then.

I usually take the average of what info is out there, doesn't seem to be much.

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#1182851 - 12/03/2013 16:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
No real confusion. Consensus seems to be it will cross the very northern Cape and then head out into the CS when it will probably become a TC and take a SSE path before dipping... it does not look like it will return. While the lows to the south have a bearing it may have got (or still may) get interesting if that WA high had been a bit closer
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#1182866 - 12/03/2013 17:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: lombogirl]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 32
Loc: Cairns
I've been watching the birds slowly leave today too. Notably hardly any Torres Strait Pigeons are around.

Getting some heavy showers come and go at the moment but wind is fairly light.

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#1182872 - 12/03/2013 17:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Thunder Hunter]
Struth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/12/2010
Posts: 46
Loc: Nhulunbuy NT (Gove)
Agreed! I hope it sticks around a bit longer then predicted so we get a few days of decent rain. Been a very unusual and disappointing wet.


Edited by Struth (12/03/2013 17:36)

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#1182880 - 12/03/2013 18:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 4738
Loc: Bribie Island
I've posted a couple of summaries from the JTWC and UKMet and the SWW for this system:

Quote:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM GOVE AIRPORT DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF EXPANSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A RECENT 112348Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND INDICATES WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT HAVE NOT YET STARTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


Quote:
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.0S 137.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 12.03.2013 11.0S 137.5E WEAK

12UTC 12.03.2013 10.5S 139.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.03.2013 10.7S 142.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.03.2013 11.6S 145.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.03.2013 12.8S 148.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.03.2013 13.5S 151.8E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.03.2013 14.7S 154.5E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.03.2013 15.9S 156.2E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.03.2013 17.4S 156.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.03.2013 18.4S 156.7E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.03.2013 19.4S 156.3E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.03.2013 20.1S 156.0E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.03.2013 20.1S 154.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Quote:
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
Peninsula Forecast District.
Issued at 1:20 pm Tuesday, 12 March 2013.
Synoptic Situation: At 10am AEST Tuesday, a tropical low was situated approximately 370 kilometres west of Weipa and moving gradually in a northeastwards direction at 7 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected deepen while continuing to move in a general eastwards direction across the Gulf of Carpentaria today before crossing Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.
Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 100km/h, are expected to develop about the Torres Strait Islands tonight.
Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about northern parts of the Peninsula district tonight. 6 hour totals of up to 150mm are possible. Locations which may be affected include the Torres Strait Islands, Lockhart River, Weipa and Mapoon.
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#1182895 - 12/03/2013 19:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 1651
There's still excellent multi-model consensus on scooting this system across the tip of Cape York into the Coral Sea then curving it to the SE as it intensifies. Last night's 12z run of EC then causes drier air in the midlevels to start wrapping around from the W and NW into the system next week before some models suggest it might do a u-turn & steering it back NW under the influence of strengthening low to midlevel ridging up QLD to its southwest. It'll probably also have to battle some shear & somewhat less warm SST's in the eastern/southern Coral Sea (if/when it gets there).

Below are some suggested forecast tracks & intensities from just a few of the models out to Sunday from NCAR. Note that for the intensity graph, the scale isn't based on the Australian scale:




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