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#1183540 - 15/03/2013 00:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Re the BoM (and others)
Very true... but, just maybe they should put forward their fallibility. They did fail in the Lockyer, but through no fault of their own.
That admission of imperfection in itself (it was there there but not understood) would help in getting more dollars for satellites and radar as opposed to working hard with mediocre resources.
The BoM in this country is crucial. It is both underestimated and awfully underfunded.


Edited by boomer (15/03/2013 00:56)
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183541 - 15/03/2013 00:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Adele Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2010
Posts: 331
Loc: Middlemount Qld
I think the BOM do a great job. If they send out warnings to early and it doesn't occur, then it would only encourage the public to become complacent.

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#1183543 - 15/03/2013 01:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Been looking at a few models... and yes, it's late, but I'm starting to think not just recurve..... but loop.
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183544 - 15/03/2013 01:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Deadly_Dude Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/03/2007
Posts: 45
Loc: Townsville
A loop would be good, might give it a chance to stay alive and not die in 2 secs once the shear/dry air gets to it.

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#1183545 - 15/03/2013 01:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Adele Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2010
Posts: 331
Loc: Middlemount Qld
I wouldn't be surprised if dry air will kill it before it even gets a chance to curve.

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#1183546 - 15/03/2013 01:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6904
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Yeah, poor thing isn't looking too good on the sat image, hard to imagine it's a cat2.

Dry air isn't _too_ terrible around him ATM, but it's not really optimal. I think shear is gonna be his biggest problem frown

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#1183547 - 15/03/2013 01:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
I disagree I think Timmy is at his abslute best.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=6&allday=&start=&stop=#nav
Keep any eye out for an eye as this is its chance.


Edited by boomer (15/03/2013 01:47)
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183549 - 15/03/2013 02:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: boomer]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 338
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Originally Posted By: boomer
Re the BoM (and others)
Very true... but, just maybe they should put forward their fallibility. They did fail in the Lockyer, but through no fault of their own.
That admission of imperfection in itself (it was there there but not understood) would help in getting more dollars for satellites and radar as opposed to working hard with mediocre resources.
The BoM in this country is crucial. It is both underestimated and awfully underfunded.


Mods feel free to tell me off here but I'm afraid I can't let this one pass through to the keeper. It's late. I'm tired. Raw nerve. I think generally the BOM do really well. I think, apart from 17th November 2012, their performance this Summer has been terrific. I agree that they could work on their "admission of fallibility" skills. But in response to the above, "They did fail in the Lockyer, but through no fault of their own," I would ask the question, "Well who's fault was it that they failed in the Lockyer"....I think that "They failed in the Lockyer", would suffice. As for, "That admission of imperfection in itself (it was there there but not understood)"...... I would love to see the evidence of this admission of imperfection. Any fair reading of what occurred in the aftermath of Jan 10th 2011 in both the media and at the Flood Commission could only come to the conclusion that there was no failure and no admission of failure. The Boss's performance standing next to the Premier on the morning of Jan 11th was the lowest point in the BOMs history. The failure was forgivable. It may indeed have even been understandable, if someone had bothered to give a truly honest account of why it occurred. But the a#$e-covering that followed, by the BOM and other Government agencies, was breathtaking for it's callousness. Even a simple collective, "We are sorry that we let you down" would help. The folk of Grantham are still waiting for it.

Back to the cyclone Tim. I'll be hoping for a u-turn and a lovely, relatively unexciting deluge for the Far North. Apparently they need it.

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#1183551 - 15/03/2013 06:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 659
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Deeragun...
Just looking at the water vapour loop it seems to me that Timmy is already starting to lose some steam - that poleward outflow channel appeared to cut off briefly, although it has regathered, but the system looks as though it is already struggling with VWS. I would be surprised to see it at Category 2 by the end of today, to be honest, but the BOM seems to think it will maintain this intensity through today and tomorrow, so I shall keep my fingers crossed. The southern side of the system appears to have been hit pretty hardm in fact the latest satellite imagery makes it look as though it is turning anticlockwise (which I am well aware is not the case). Category 1 by 5pm today, I think.


Edited by TSVWeatherNerd (15/03/2013 06:38)
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Weather Nerd Central, Deeragun (Townsville)

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#1183552 - 15/03/2013 06:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1337
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld Aus
Looks a little bit better this morning and has some nice breakfast arriving there on the NE side to get started on smile
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#1183559 - 15/03/2013 08:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: TESHUB]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1978
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:56 am EST on Friday 15 March 2013
At 4 am EST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Tim (Category 2) with central pressure 984
hPa was located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 15.6 south longitude
152.3 east, which is about 710 km east northeast of Cairns and 260 km east
northeast of Willis Island.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is moving east southeast at about 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Tim is expected to continue moving east-southeast across the
Coral Sea until late Friday and is likely to slowly strengthen. Over the
weekend the system is forecast to turn to the south and begin to weaken. There
is currently no direct threat to Queensland during the next few days.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST.

Threat Map

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65003.gif?1363287659204

Bom's starting to show the re-curve in there latest map.
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 9.0mm
YTD: 2262.5mm

September- 3.0mm

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#1183560 - 15/03/2013 08:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
mad mick Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/11/2007
Posts: 1104
Loc: Aitkenvale,townsville
I wonder if this is its new tail coming in from the NE meaning that it will start to turn to the SW soon as the bottom tail becomes insignificant but yes looks a lot less like a cat 2 no eye more cat 1 and the US site has it recurring all the way back north they are always close to the mark on tracking them

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#1183561 - 15/03/2013 08:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
mad mick Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/11/2007
Posts: 1104
Loc: Aitkenvale,townsville
And I can't help but wonder what ever happened to all the met guys in years past that used to say the computer modeling says this but we believe that this will happen instead maybe in our present age of someone to blame and then be able to sue if you admit guilt like saying where sorry the government have stepped in and told them no to say boo

As I am sure their are a lot of good met people that know a lot more than what we read in the weather forecasts but in this day and age going on a hunch as in the past will lead you to having no job I wonder

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#1183565 - 15/03/2013 08:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Machans lady Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 33
The best I can hope for is for it to a loop head for Cairns cross the coast as a low and maybe finally we can have a wet season !!!

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#1183567 - 15/03/2013 08:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3373
Loc: Mackay, Nth Beaches -YTD 985mm...
Latest models show Tim washing out completely, and not much happening after that. Tim might be the last for us this season.

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#1183570 - 15/03/2013 09:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Tempest]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1978
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
I agree Tempest. The latest models aren't looking good for our boy Timmy. Dry air and shear will tear him apart and wash him out. crazy
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 9.0mm
YTD: 2262.5mm

September- 3.0mm

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#1183571 - 15/03/2013 09:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1042
Loc: Whitsundays
Too cool for Tim as well on the southern inflow. 18.7C in the Whitsundays this morning. Doesn't feel like a cyclone season here. Looks like no cyclone impacts for east coast of Queensland for 2012/13.
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Weather stations: Mount Julian and Proserpine Mill
Cyclone Chasee: Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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#1183573 - 15/03/2013 09:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Rainrunner]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1978
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Yeah it was pretty cool as well here in Cairns this morning as well. 21.C and that's bloody to cold for this time of year. Oh well, lets hope next season will be better than this one for us up here in FNQ.
_________________________
Parramatta Park Rainfall Totals 2014
2014 rainfall chart


MTD: 9.0mm
YTD: 2262.5mm

September- 3.0mm

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#1183575 - 15/03/2013 09:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Rainrunner]
LonglifeMilk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Edmonton
I am depressed - it is entirely too sunny and fine here for my liking at the moment...I am really counting on Tim swinging back toward the coast and heading back up our way...call me crazy crazy

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#1183577 - 15/03/2013 09:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Sandfly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2010
Posts: 795
Loc: Yamba NSW
Well, I think that marks the end of the wet.

It's been a good read.

Adios to next Dec/Jan.
_________________________
"The harder you work the luckier someone else becomes".


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