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#1183353 - 14/03/2013 15:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6757
Loc: Bohle Plains
Willis Is at 1001.5 & 74km/h gusts, interesting to see what happens as it moves over. Someone head out to Willis Is and give him a push West please? grin

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#1183372 - 14/03/2013 17:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Maisie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/03/2004
Posts: 1444
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
Any chance he will come in quicker than expected?

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#1183376 - 14/03/2013 17:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3369
Loc: Mackay, Nth Beaches -YTD 985mm...
Apart from the shear to Tim's south, there in no southern high pressure feeding into it, and it will not have until possible Monday, I doubt if Tim will get past a Cat 2/3.

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#1183380 - 14/03/2013 17:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 239
Loc: kuranda, qld
JTWC and CMISS track forecasts show big westward swing aiming at Whitsundays, maybe landfall on 19 th. I wonder if Tim will still be a TC at this point?

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#1183382 - 14/03/2013 17:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rianna Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 58
Loc: Port Douglas, QLD
Willis Island is coping it. Too bad it isn't turning straight west. There goes the rain again!

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#1183383 - 14/03/2013 17:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
AKM80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 275
Loc: Marian
The big fella is CAT 2 already. It would seem he is developing faster than expected!

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#1183384 - 14/03/2013 17:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6757
Loc: Bohle Plains
BoM hinting at a possible tighter recurve now grin Must not get excited .. again .. must not get excited .. again grin


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#1183385 - 14/03/2013 18:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Deadly_Dude Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/03/2007
Posts: 45
Loc: Townsville
Surely once the shear affects this system it'll die out pretty quick, such a small system!

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#1183386 - 14/03/2013 18:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Things]
Rianna Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 58
Loc: Port Douglas, QLD
I know Things grin I saw that on BOM about 5 minutes ago and was telling myself "calm down calm down calm down!"

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#1183388 - 14/03/2013 18:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
As suggested earlier Things. It's not impossible. Depends on the highs in the south west methinks.
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183391 - 14/03/2013 18:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1315
Loc: Tekowai Qld Aus
Couldnt believe how fast it got to CAT 2
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TESHUB was the Hurrian god of sky and storm (the Anatolian area of central Turkey)

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#1183392 - 14/03/2013 18:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Things]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 347
Loc: Edmonton QLD
Originally Posted By: Things
BoM hinting at a possible tighter recurve now grin Must not get excited .. again .. must not get excited .. again grin


Things it's like your in my head!!! This forum needs a like button!!!

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#1183399 - 14/03/2013 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
BoM really are betting it all on shear but at least now agree on a coastal crossing.
"The system lies in a region of NW shear, which should steadily increase over the
next 36 hours. This is likely to slow further development, and lead to weakening
from Saturday onwards as the system likely turns to the south. Following this
period, weakening of the upper trough and development of low level ridging to
the south should push the remains of the system, most likely below tropical
cyclone strength, westwards towards the Queensland coast."

Note the MOST LIKELY below cyclone strength.
Hmmm... not so sure about that by the look of it.


Edited by boomer (14/03/2013 18:26)
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183400 - 14/03/2013 18:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: TESHUB]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1036
Loc: Whitsundays
Originally Posted By: PDM
Couldnt believe how fast it got to CAT 2

Same! This mornings 5am forecast map showed it developing to cat 1 by 10pm, but its already cat 2! I think its got a few surprises up its sleeve before Tim is finished.
_________________________
Weather stations: Mount Julian and Proserpine Mill
Cyclone Chasee: Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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#1183401 - 14/03/2013 18:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Krissyistormy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 357
Loc: Ipswich QLD
Guys this track of a TC hitting CQ next week was just sent to me. Can someone else more experienced have a look please. Ive never used this model before so I have no idea of how accurate it is.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2013031400_ANZ_GFS_850_HGT_WINDS
_________________________
Once you familiarise yourself with the chains of bondage you prepare your own limbs to wear them. Abraham Lincoln

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#1183402 - 14/03/2013 18:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
It's an interpretation of GFS. Nothing new there. The big system out of the east was progged some time ago and is not Timmy.
As for accuracy... depends on your opinion.


Edited by boomer (14/03/2013 18:31)
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183403 - 14/03/2013 18:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Krissyistormy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 357
Loc: Ipswich QLD
Ok thanks for that. Ive never used it so I cant form an opinion on it smile
_________________________
Once you familiarise yourself with the chains of bondage you prepare your own limbs to wear them. Abraham Lincoln

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#1183404 - 14/03/2013 18:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
GFS, EC and the BoM are the three best modelling agencies (in my opinion)
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1183405 - 14/03/2013 18:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
Deadly_Dude Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/03/2007
Posts: 45
Loc: Townsville
All i'd like is a Cat 1 come at us next week, so can get a day off work poke

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#1183409 - 14/03/2013 18:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Tim - Coral Sea [Re: Inclement Weather]
AKM80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 275
Loc: Marian
Going off the latest district forecast from BOM it seems they would suspect a south of Townsville crossing.

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