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#1183303 - 14/03/2013 12:50 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Still no proof as asked for.


Edited by Greg Sorenson (14/03/2013 13:44)
Edit Reason: Personal attack removed

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#1183306 - 14/03/2013 12:56 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
It is a pitty that this has come in before the Marcott et al paper is gergised... Steve Mc has a post up on it where he's asked Marcott about the uptic at the end:

Quote:
I wrote to Marcott asking him for further details of how he actually obtained the uptick, noting that the enormous 1920-to-1940 uptick is not characteristic of the underlying data. Marcott’s response was unhelpful: instead of explaining how he got the result, Marcott stated that they had “clearly” stated that the 1890-on portion of their reconstruction was “not robust”.


so... the hungry little caterpillar feelers/antennae uptic is not in the data - but it does make nice headlines:

_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1183340 - 14/03/2013 14:27 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: ROM
Still no proof as asked for.


The proof is in FOIA's email.

......


Edited by Greg Sorenson (14/03/2013 17:06)
Edit Reason: Inflammatory description removed
_________________________

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#1183347 - 14/03/2013 15:09 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Talking about people not bothering to read and catalogue... I reckon it'll be interesting to get a FOIA into this room:


Phil Jones at work in his state of the art office

Maybe we could find some of that original raw data there... You know the one from the thermometers rather than the "value-added" (i.e. conformed to models) data. wink
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1183374 - 14/03/2013 17:09 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Snowball Earth: Lessons for Climate Change

About 635 million years ago, the Earth was covered by ice from pole to pole in what is being described as “Snowball Earth”, which is now becoming a trendy new topic in the polarized climate change debate.

During “Snowball Earth”, the global mean temperature would have been about -50 degrees Celsius (-74 degrees Fahrenheit) as the sun’s radiation was reflected back into space by the icy surface. In simpler terms, let’s call it life on Mars

The scientific research suggests this ice age was brought on by a lowering of atmospheric greenhouse gases to near-present levels through tectonically-mediated rock weathering, when the Sun was considerably dimmer than present.

Researchers from Louisiana State University have tried to put “Snowball Earth” into a perspective that threatens to upset the climate change debate to some extent.

Huiming Bao, Charles L. Jones Professor in Geology & Geophysics at LSU notes: “The story is to put a time limit on how fast our Earth system can recover from a total frozen state. It is about a unique and rapidly changing post-glacial world, but is also about the incredible resilience of life and life’s remarkable ability to restore a new balance between atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere after a global glaciation.”

According to an LSU press release: “Normally, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are in balance with levels of carbon dioxide in the ocean. However, if water and air were cut off by a thick layer of ice during Snowball Earth, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could have increased drastically. In a phenomenon similar to the climate change Earth is witnessing in modern times, high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have created a greenhouse gas warming effect, trapping heat inside the planet's atmosphere and melting the Marinoan ice. Essentially, the Marinoan glaciation created the potential for extreme changes in atmospheric chemistry that in turn lead to the end of Snowball Earth and the beginning of a new explosion of animal life on Earth.”

http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/Snowball-Earth-Lessons-for-Climate-Change.html

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#1183375 - 14/03/2013 17:14 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Plant life is starting to grow more vigorously in the arctic thanks to climate change, according to Nasa.

"Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more," Ranga Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth and Environment told Nasa.

"In the north's Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems."

A team of university and Nasa scientists examined the relationship between surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the arctic ocean, and found that temperature and vegetation growth new resemble that found 4 to 6 degrees farther south of that latitude as recently as 1982.

"It's like Winnipeg, Manitoba, moving to Minneapolis-Saint Paul in only 30 years," said co-author Compton Tucker of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

In order to figure out what was going to happen in the future, Nasa reports that the researchers used 17 models. These showed that warmer temperatures would mean a 20 degree latitude shift by the end of this century compared to the period 1951 to 1980.

The scientists cautioned however that this would not necessarily mean more plant growth. ???????

http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2013/03/12/arctic-turning-green-with-climate-change

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#1183414 - 14/03/2013 19:11 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
These are marcotts proxies used, some up 7C, some down 9C, a real mess of completely opposite results and miss-mass comes out as an average straight line...what else can they come out as?!...what unscientific rubbish!!!

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#1183477 - 14/03/2013 21:49 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637

Entire nation of Kiribati to be relocated over rising sea level threat

In what could be the world's first climate-induced migration of modern times, Anote Tong, the Kiribati president, said he was in talks with Fiji's military government to buy up to 5,000 acres of freehold land on which his countrymen could be housed.

Some of Kiribati's 32 pancake-flat coral atolls, which straddle the equator over 1,350,000 square miles of ocean, are already disappearing beneath the waves.

Most of its 113,000 people are crammed on to Tarawa, the administrative centre, a chain of islets which curve in a horseshoe shape around a lagoon.

"This is the last resort, there's no way out of this one," Mr Tong said.

"Our people will have to move as the tides have reached our homes and villages."

read full article
_________________________

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#1183497 - 14/03/2013 23:00 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
That CeeBee Kirabati post looks very much like another Gore dropping. Of what vintage who knows.

So here's the actual sea level data on one of Kirabati's main urbanised islands, Betio..

And that sea level increase, where??

16 years and the sea level varied from a low of 6741 mms in 1998, the year of the super El Nino to a high of 6982 mms in 2004.

Sounds like a case of "Looks damn dangerous and frightening from here. It's all your fault. We're with the "sinking" Maldives and their new multi million "whatits" airport. Send more money!"

PMSL;Permanent service for Mean Sea Level








And some research on the changes in the Pacific islands areas.
Both of these subjects we have been all over at length last year but Ceebee just keep right on posting his gore droppings.
Ah well.! a slow learner I guess

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NZ research shows Pacific islands not shrinking

An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels.

Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm - an average of 2mm a year - over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.

Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.

They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.

"It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown," Prof Kench told the New Scientist. "But they won't.

"The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.

One of the highest profile islands - in a political sense - was Tuvalu, where politicians and climate change campaigners have repeatedly predicted it will be drowned by rising seas, as its highest point is 4.5 metres above sea level. But the researchers found seven islands had spread by more than 3 percent on average since the 1950s.

One island, Funamanu, gained 0.44 hectares or nearly 30 percent of its previous area.

And the research showed similar trends in the Republic of Kiribati, where the three main urbanised islands also "grew" - Betio by 30 percent (36ha), Bairiki by 16.3 percent (5.8ha) and Nanikai by 12.5 percent (0.8ha).

Webb, an expert on coastal processes, told the New Scientist the trend was explained by the fact the islands mostly comprised coral debris eroded from encircling reefs and pushed up onto the islands by winds and waves.

The process was continuous, because the corals were alive, he said.

In effect the islands respond to changes in weather patterns and climate - Cyclone Bebe deposited 140ha of sediment on the eastern reef of Tuvalu in 1972, increasing the main island's area by 10 percent.

But the two men warned that while the islands were coping for now, any acceleration in the rate of sea level rise could re-instate the earlier gloomy predictions.

No one knows how fast the islands can grow, and calculating sea level rise is an inexact science.

Climate experts have generally raised estimates for sea level rise - the United Nations spoke in late 2009 of a maximum 2 metre rise by 2100, up from 18-59cm estimated in 2007.
<<<<<<<<


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#1183501 - 14/03/2013 23:19 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Arnost]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: Arnost
It is a pitty that this has come in before the Marcott et al paper is gergised... Steve Mc has a post up on it where he's asked Marcott about the uptic at the end:

Quote:
I wrote to Marcott asking him for further details of how he actually obtained the uptick, noting that the enormous 1920-to-1940 uptick is not characteristic of the underlying data. Marcott’s response was unhelpful: instead of explaining how he got the result, Marcott stated that they had “clearly” stated that the 1890-on portion of their reconstruction was “not robust”.


so... the hungry little caterpillar feelers/antennae uptic is not in the data - but it does make nice headlines:







Just to be clear, that chart is Marcott's fake data made up of a bunch of Monte Carlo (random) runs trying to simulate if "a" methodology worked (nobody knows what the methodology is, and hence the "a").

But here is the actual proxies used (courtesy of Mr Willis Eschenbach).



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#1183504 - 14/03/2013 23:30 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

Entire nation of Kiribati to be relocated over rising sea level threat

...
read full article


http://www.ausaid.gov.au/countries/pacific/kiribati/Pages/home.aspx

If that is the case, you better call up DFAT and tell them that he planned new hospital and schools are going to be a waste of Australian tax payers money...
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

Top
#1183529 - 15/03/2013 00:26 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
Further to the Marcott et al paper, as alluded to by a few other guys earlier, this is what Marcott had to say when queried about the 'blade' of the hockey stick:
Quote:
...the reconstruction over the past 60 yrs before present (the years 1890 − 1950 CE) is probably not robust...

Regarding the NH (northern hemisphere) reconstructions, using the same reasoning as above, we do not think this increase in temperature in our Monte-Carlo analysis of the paleo proxies between 1920 − 1940 is robust given the resolution and number of datasets.

Regarding the SH (southern hemi.) reconstruction: It is the same situation, and again we do not think the last 60 years of our Monte Carlo reconstruction are robust



In other words - don't trust the 'blade' of the hockey stick, we have no idea if it's legitimate. But we'll make conclusions about the last decade. And we'll push our study to the worldwide media knowing full well what they'll read into it. Which they dutifully did, as CeeBee's posts from a few days ago show with words such as "terrifying", "stunner", "scarier", etc.

This is precisely the sort of unethical actions that encouraged me to look into the whole climate change issue. Advocacy and ideology paraded as science.

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#1183535 - 15/03/2013 00:45 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
CB - the SkS website on average would cost about $159.00 a year.

One sql database for the forum and the basic website. Dot com extension can be had for $3.00 a year from Crazy Domains or $18.00 a year from Word Press with a free website and site builder thrown in and a whole host of free themes.

The breakdown could look like this: run to about $9.90 a month from some web hosts. A fair bit more depending on how much data you want to transfer per month, extra email addresses, CPanel or Fantasico acces etc.

Hardly a world beating design in fact it looks like something out of 2000, the graphics aren't exactly eye catching nor is the layout from a purely professional view point.

The content layout looks more likely to confuse rather than inform, menu's are laid out in a simplistic manner with no real thought gone into important/not important orders or the precedence each menu item should have. Fonts are not eye catching, colour scheme is plain boring to.

In fact if they have a professional web master and web designer they both need firing and get some one under the age of 50 to design something a bit more catchy. For a cartoonist he does a reasonable job but the whole thing looks very ameteurish to my way of thinking. It may have been a state of the art Design for Windows 98SE and Internet Explorer 4 but we have actually moved on a fair bit since then.

Stuff that I am giving aid to the opposition but fair dinkum the website needs a shake up if you want anyone to believe what your saying - it looks like it was put together by a bunch of grade 6 students as a home work assignment they didn't put any effort into and not a serious means of getting a message across. Oh and no thanks I am not interested in fixing it for you.
_________________________
July 6mm
2018 Total 743mm






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#1183596 - 15/03/2013 11:13 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Simmosturf]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: Simmosturf
Snowball Earth: Lessons for Climate Change

About 635 million years ago, the Earth was covered by ice from pole to pole in what is being described as “Snowball Earth”, which is now becoming a trendy new topic in the polarized climate change debate.

During “Snowball Earth”, the global mean temperature would have been about -50 degrees Celsius (-74 degrees Fahrenheit) as the sun’s radiation was reflected back into space by the icy surface. In simpler terms, let’s call it life on Mars

The scientific research suggests this ice age was brought on by a lowering of atmospheric greenhouse gases to near-present levels through tectonically-mediated rock weathering, when the Sun was considerably dimmer than present.

Researchers from Louisiana State University have tried to put “Snowball Earth” into a perspective that threatens to upset the climate change debate to some extent.

Huiming Bao, Charles L. Jones Professor in Geology & Geophysics at LSU notes: “The story is to put a time limit on how fast our Earth system can recover from a total frozen state. It is about a unique and rapidly changing post-glacial world, but is also about the incredible resilience of life and life’s remarkable ability to restore a new balance between atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere after a global glaciation.”

According to an LSU press release: “Normally, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are in balance with levels of carbon dioxide in the ocean. However, if water and air were cut off by a thick layer of ice during Snowball Earth, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could have increased drastically. In a phenomenon similar to the climate change Earth is witnessing in modern times, high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have created a greenhouse gas warming effect, trapping heat inside the planet's atmosphere and melting the Marinoan ice. Essentially, the Marinoan glaciation created the potential for extreme changes in atmospheric chemistry that in turn lead to the end of Snowball Earth and the beginning of a new explosion of animal life on Earth.”

http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/Snowball-Earth-Lessons-for-Climate-Change.html



See the picture taken by Apollo 17 which was in December 1972 and was the first picture showing the big white spot at the south pole - Antarctica - reflecting 80% of the available sunlight back to space.






635 million years ago during the last Snowball, almost all the continents were locked together in Super-continent Pannotia right where Antarctica is now.

The big white spot was 10 times bigger and 5 times bigger than Africa which is also shown in the 1972 picture.





The glaciers built up 5 kms high over the south pole and the central spreading region and spread out across all the land which was available (at this point, almost all connected so not difficult). So much sunlight was reflected back to space that even more glacier and sea ice built up as temperatures fell by -25C. On top of the 5 km high glaciers, temperatures may have been -100C

http://www.eeo.ed.ac.uk/homes/tcrowley/snowball_Earth_oasis.pdf


Huiming Boa, quoted in the article and a co-author of the new paper and the founder of the technique used, has previously used the technique described in the paper to determine how much CO2 was in the atmosphere at the end of this Snowball (while the new paper does not actually put a number on it).

Boa's answer? 12,000 ppm CO2 - about 10 to 20 times too small to end the Snowball. [Lots of cap carbonate rock formed in the oceans since the vast sea ice to 30S and 30N would not allow the CO2 from undersea volcanoes and other sources out - but there was nowhere near enough CO2 in the atmosphere to offset all that sunlight reflected by all that glacier].

http://www.snowballearth.org/Bao08.pdf

The last Snowball Earth ended when Super-Continent Pannotia split down the middle (as they eventually do due to the pressure they put on the crust) and the new continental arrangement moved off the south pole where the glaciers could not form anymore.

By 550 million years ago, temperatures may have reached the highest level in Earth history at +15.0C setting the stage for the Cambrian explosion of complex life.


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#1183619 - 15/03/2013 13:24 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Arnost]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: Arnost


Phil Jones at work in his state of the art office



_________________________

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#1183621 - 15/03/2013 13:39 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2237
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Lol PJ <> AE

Nice try though

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#1183631 - 15/03/2013 14:20 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: CeeBee]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4459
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Arnost


Phil Jones at work in his state of the art office





The 2 photos have one highly significant difference. Can you spot what it is?

I'll give you a clue. Phil Jones is sitting in front of it.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1183637 - 15/03/2013 14:39 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Exactly. And more so that in a modern environmentally conscious age all that paper is a travesty.

And then think about the dust that has to be there!
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

Top
#1183647 - 15/03/2013 15:02 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4459
Loc: Brisbane
Oh and I'm sorry but Phil Jones is no Albert Einstein.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1183650 - 15/03/2013 15:21 Re: Interesting Articles about AGW [Re: Locke]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: Locke
The 2 photos have one highly significant difference. Can you spot what it is?

I'll give you a clue. Phil Jones is sitting in front of it.

As is Einstein (behind him)..... wink


_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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