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#1184834 - 20/03/2013 18:08 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
The permafrost formed in the ice-age:

We went through the Bølling-Allerød... And the permafroost is still there... and then it cooled

We went through the Hypsithermal... And the permafrost is still there... and then it cooled.

We went through the Minoan Warm period... And the permafrost is still there... and then it cooled.

We went through the Romand Warm period... And the permafrost is still there... and then it cooled.

We went through the Medieval Warm period... And the permafrost is still there... and then it cooled.

We went through the 1930-40's arctic warming... and then it cooled. And the permafroost is still there.

Is there a pattern?

http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/AGU/AGU_2008/Zz_Others/Li_agu08/Mayewski2004.pdf
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“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1184910 - 20/03/2013 23:22 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Bill Illis]
Bill Illis Offline
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Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: Bill Illis
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

Canada Losing Its Seasons


link



Absolutely.

So far in 2013, they are missing the Spring season. Its lost.




An article from Canada's main climatologist about the non-existent change in the seasons to Spring in Canada (note Canada is more into actual weather than climate change);


http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/03/20/canada-spring-2013_n_2913705.html

Quote:

According to David Phillips, a climatologist with Environment Canada, spring has not sprung anywhere across the nation.

"If we sent out search parties for spring, we would not find hide nor hair of it," Phillips said. "Everyone is in misery, and everyone has a cross to bear."

On Wednesday, the windchill in Winnipeg will dip down to -37 C.

In Saskatchewan the first day of spring brings days of snow and temperatures falling to -27 C. (Note. Regina just broke the record for the most snow over the winter at 190 centimetres).

Montreal, managing one of the snowiest winters in 30 years, is celebrating spring with a massive cleanup after a storm on Tuesday dumped 26 centimetres of snow on the city.




Edited by Bill Illis (20/03/2013 23:25)

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#1185004 - 21/03/2013 09:50 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Bill Illis]
CeeBee Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641


You are cherry picking one single weather event in a few select locations when the article I posted is looking at a 30 year period across the whole region.

Originally Posted By: CeeBee

Canada Losing Its Seasons

Canada is not a country, it’s winter,” Canadians say with pride. But the nation’s long, fearsome winters will live only in memory and song for Canadian children born this decade.

Winters are already significantly warmer and shorter than just 30 years ago. The temperature regimes and plant life of the south have marched more than 700 kilometres northward, new research shows.

By 2091, the north will have seasons, temperatures and possibly vegetation comparable to those found today 20 to 25 degrees of latitude further south, said Ranga Myneni of the Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University.

“If we don’t curb carbon emissions, Arctic Sweden might be more like the south of France by the end of the century,” Myneni, co-author of the Nature Climate Change study published Sunday, told IPS.

Canada, Northern Eurasia and the Arctic are warming faster than elsewhere as a result of the loss of snow and ice, he said. In 90 years, Alaska or Canada’s Baffin Island in the Arctic may have seasons and temperatures comparable to those in today’s Oregon and southern Ontario.

Myneni is member of an international team of 21 authors from seven countries who used newly improved ground and satellite data to measure changes in temperatures and vegetation over the four seasons from roughly above the U.S.-Canada border (45 degrees latitude) to the Arctic Ocean.

They found temperatures over the northern lands have increased at different rates during the four seasons over the past 30 years, with winters warming most followed by spring temperatures.

There is a huge difference between winter and summer temperatures in the north, but that difference is less and less every year, according to the study, “Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands”. This measured change is happening faster than projected by climate models.

“We are changing seasonality…. The north is becoming like the south, losing its sharp contrasts between the four seasons,” said Myneni.

One clear sign is the greening of Arctic. The types of plants that could go no further north than 57 degrees north 30 years ago are now found at 64 degrees.

This change is “easily visible on the ground as an increasing abundance of tall shrubs and tree incursions in several locations all over the circumpolar Arctic,” said co-author Terry Callaghan of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the University of Sheffield, UK.

Seasonality is often called the rhythm of life. Changes will impact many species, considering the enormous numbers of birds, animals and others species that migrate north to feast during the short northern summer.

The Arctic is home to millions of square kilometres of permafrost with its vast amount of frozen carbon. The amplified warming of the Arctic will release some of this carbon, leading to greater warming around the planet for hundreds of years, the study also warns.

In recent weeks, satellite images of the Arctic Ocean have revealed large fractures in the sea ice during the coldest part of winter. Sea ice does not normally begin to break up until at least April. The mid-February fracturing was extensive and unusual, sea ice expert Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told IPS.

Last summer’s record melt of sea ice was 80 percent greater when compared to summers 30 or more years ago. This winter, most of the ice in the Arctic is thin, first-year ice that is more easily fractured and likely to melt quickly when the summer comes.

The ramifications of this planetary-scale change are just beginning to be understood.

The 2012 sea ice collapse amplified the destructive power of Superstorm Sandy, researchers reported last week in the journal of Oceanography. The severe loss of summertime Arctic sea ice appears to affect the jet stream, IPS has previously reported.

That helped Hurricane Sandy take a powerful turn west instead of steering northeast and out to sea like most October hurricanes, researchers say in the paper “Superstorm Sandy: A Series of Unfortunate Events?”.

It’s not only sea ice that is in full meltdown mode. Canada’s land-based glaciers are also melting. Little studied until recently, these glaciers are third in volume only to those of Antarctica and Greenland. By the end of this century, 20 percent will have melted, raising global sea levels by 3.5 cm.

Considering oceans cover 71 percent of the planet, that is an incredible amount of ice turning into water.

“We believe that the mass loss is irreversible in the foreseeable future” assuming continued climate change, wrote researchers from the Netherlands and the United States in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

link


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#1185059 - 21/03/2013 13:13 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: CeeBee


You are cherry picking one single weather event in a few select locations when the article I posted is looking at a 30 year period across the whole region.



I'm trying to add some reality to the debate. I'm tired of hearing about some fudged-up study trying to say it will never snow again and vegetation has moved 900 kms farther north into melted permafrost while this is not actually happening. Its fudged up belief systems written up as if it were an actual study of something.

47 years of snow cover.


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#1185066 - 21/03/2013 13:48 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641
NASA Satellite imagery shows proof of vegetation moving further north Bill.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/10mar_greenhouseshift/

Vegetation growth at Earth's northern latitudes increasingly resembles lusher latitudes to the south, according to a NASA-funded study based on a 30-year record of ground-based and satellite data sets.

In a paper published Sunday, March 10, in the journal Nature Climate Change, an international team of university and NASA scientists examined the relationship between changes in surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the Arctic Ocean. Results show temperature and vegetation growth at northern latitudes now resemble those found 4 degrees to 6 degrees of latitude farther south as recently as 1982.

"Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more," said Ranga Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth and Environment. "In the north's Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems."
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#1185074 - 21/03/2013 14:02 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Do you have a link to the peer reviewed study that deals with the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on rates of plant growth in cold climates?

I assume there is peer reviewed research that has eliminated this as a contributing factor to any greening of the Arctic?

Irrespective, I don't think anyone is disputing a reduction in summer extent in the Arctic over the past 30 years which would inevitably lead to increased vegetation.

The matter still up for debate is cause because it is causality that will give us the best chance of accurately predicting future conditions.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1185424 - 22/03/2013 19:27 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: CeeBee]
snafu Offline
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Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: snafu
Yes CeeBee we believe you. Just as much as we believe the claim made last year by some scientist or pollie that 97% of the Greenland ice sheet melted.


You have misunderstood what was reported to have happened to the Greenland ice sheet last year. It was surface melt.

97% of Greenland surface ice turns to slush



The surface of Greenland has turned to slush. Satellite data shows that a warm spell earlier this month melted nearly the entire surface of the nation's ice cap. The melt is unusual: normally about half of the ice sheet melts at the surface during summer, mostly at low elevations.

This year the thaw was stunningly swift and widespread, and extended high up the nation's peaks.


Mmmkay - cough

The melt extent algorithm used by Greenland Ice Sheet Today has been overestimating the melt extent, and as a result, daily images posted on this site in February and March may have indicated melt where none occurred.

Makes you wonder what else has been overestimated or misunderstood!

whistle

_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1185474 - 22/03/2013 21:42 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14230
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Once again i will point out the bleeding obvious but seasons are date based, not weather CB.
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2018 Total 774mm






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#1185722 - 24/03/2013 13:01 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641

Will Shattered Ice Cap Shatter Ice Melt Record This Year?



Image of massive Arctic sea ice cracks showing temperature of the ice and the cracks between floes.

Read full article
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#1185723 - 24/03/2013 13:18 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
I see what you mean CeeBee! The hottest temperature in the cracks is minus -13.5C... That water near Barrow is almost bath water hot!
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1185727 - 24/03/2013 13:24 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14230
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Originally Posted By: Maxwell Smart
Aah the old below freezing temprature water causing ice to melt hey CB.
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Oct 31mm
2018 Total 774mm






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#1185731 - 24/03/2013 13:50 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641
Aah no, it's not the old below freezing temperature water causing ice to melt SBT.

It's the thin sea ice cracking.
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#1185796 - 24/03/2013 18:11 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
In a post I made on the 17th of this month, the NSIDC made the statement:

"This fracturing event appears to be related to a storm that passed over the North Pole on February 8, 2013, creating strong off-shore ice motion."

That statement has now been updated / amended to:

*Note: We originally attributed the fracturing event to a storm that passed over the North Pole, and stated "This fracturing event appears to be related to a storm that passed over the North Pole on February 8, 2013, creating strong off-shore ice motion." We corrected this sentence after re-examining weather charts. The updated version now reads, "This fracturing event appears to be related to a series of storms that moved across central Alaska starting on February 10, 2013, causing intense easterly winds along the coast and strong off-shore ice motion."

You can view the update by using the link in my original post.


_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1186157 - 26/03/2013 06:05 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641

Scientists link frozen spring to dramatic Arctic sea ice loss

Climate scientists have linked the massive snowstorms and bitter spring weather now being experienced across Britain and large parts of Europe and North America to the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice.

Both the extent and the volume of the sea ice that forms and melts each year in the Arctic Ocean fell to an historic low last autumn, and satellite records published on Monday by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, show the ice extent is close to the minimum recorded for this time of year.

"The sea ice is going rapidly. It's 80% less than it was just 30 years ago. There has been a dramatic loss. This is a symptom of global warming and it contributes to enhanced warming of the Arctic," said Jennifer Francis, research professor with the Rutgers Institute of Coastal and Marine Science.

According to Francis and a growing body of other researchers, the Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream – the high-altitude river of air that steers storm systems and governs most weather in northern hemisphere.

"This is what is affecting the jet stream and leading to the extreme weather we are seeing in mid-latitudes," she said. "It allows the cold air from the Arctic to plunge much further south. The pattern can be slow to change because the [southern] wave of the jet stream is getting bigger. It's now at a near record position, so whatever weather you have now is going to stick around," she said.

Francis linked the Arctic temperature rises to extreme weather in mid latitudes last year and warned in September that 2012's record sea ice melt could lead to a cold winter in the UK and northern Europe.

She was backed by Vladimir Petoukhov, professor of Earth system analysis at Potsdam Institute in Germany, whose research suggests the loss of ice this year could be changing the direction of the jet stream.

"The ice was at a record low last year and is now exceptionally low in some parts of the Arctic like the Labrador and Greenland seas. This could be one reason why anticyclones are developing," he said.

The heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures which have marked March 2013 across the northern hemisphere are in stark contrast to March 2012 when many countries experienced their warmest ever springs. The hypothesis that wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere would explain both the extremes of heat and cold, say the scientists.

A recent paper by the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also found that enhanced warming of the Arctic influenced weather across the northern hemisphere.

"With more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe," said the researchers.

The Met Office's chief scientist has previously said the melting Arctic ice is in part responsible for the UK's recent colder winters.

The possible links between Arctic sea ice loss and extreme weather were made as the UK's government's outgoing chief scientific adviser Sir John Beddington warned that the world could expect more extremes of weather.

"The [current] variation we are seeing in temperature or rainfall is double the rate of the average. That suggests that we are going to have more droughts, we are going to have more floods, we are going to have more sea surges and we are going to have more storms." He said that said there was a "need for urgency" in tackling climate change.

"These are the sort of changes that are going to affect us in quite a short timescale," he warned. Last year saw record heat, rainfall, drought and floods in the northern hemisphere.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/25/frozen-spring-arctic-sea-ice-loss
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#1186167 - 26/03/2013 07:01 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
I liken the Guardian stories to scary fairy tales... Just media hype and government propaganda...

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#1186181 - 26/03/2013 09:05 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2641
Rubbish - point out what you think is wrong with the science.

Listen to this program that was on the radio this morning.

Fierce northern winter linked to Arctic sea ice melt
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#1186183 - 26/03/2013 09:17 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Ummm.....didn't they say the same about the NH summer last year? Now what's it going to be?

Less ice causes fierce northern winters.

or

Less ice causes fierce northern summers.

I'm only asking as I would like to know where to position the goal posts and how high to make the crossbar.

I would also like too add, the Antarctic has been gaining ice over the last several years and according to the experts our summers have become harsher and our winters have become cooler. Is that because there is more ice down there or what?


Edited by snafu (26/03/2013 09:23)
_________________________
We have about five more years at the outside to do something.
Kenneth Watt, ecologist - Earth Day, 1970
43 years later...we're still here.

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#1186199 - 26/03/2013 09:56 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Whats wrong with the science CeeBee is that it came 'AFTER' the event. Prior to the Cold NH winters of the last 5 or so years the threat was that winters would be mild and that 'Kids would not know what snow is'. Now that everyone realises that is most certainly not the case the climate scientists have changed their predictions to more extreme weather without asking whether the hypothesis was wrong in the first place. It has been the same with every extreme for the last decade or more. It used to be 'NNo rain' now its extreme rain. Used to be no snow. Now it's heavy snow. If your conclusions are wrong then as a scientist you have to ask your self two things.
1. Why were they wrong?
2. Was the hypothesis wrong in the first place?
Climate scientists refuse to ask this second question. They keep assuming it is right and just change their conclusions to suit the theory and the current weather events. This is bad science.

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#1186224 - 26/03/2013 11:36 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Your going to run into problems when the only question you ever ask is why did AGW cause this to happen when it fact there may have been another cause that you never even bothered to investigate.

Case in point.

"We have warm winters and less snow due to AGW so future winters will be warmer and have less snow."

Good call that one. Ooops we were wrong. Better change it to "more severe winters with more snow" and hope no one notices the 180 degree turnaround.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1186230 - 26/03/2013 12:13 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: CeeBee]
refstar Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2012
Posts: 310
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

Will Shattered Ice Cap Shatter Ice Melt Record This Year?



Image of massive Arctic sea ice cracks showing temperature of the ice and the cracks between floes.

Read full article



Do people seriously believe that temps of -20 through to almost -40c is causing ice to crack? Yikes.

How about pure physics? An ice sheet that big constantly buffered by swell and winds will most certainly crack! This is another disingenuous puff piece aimed at manipulating a normal phenomena into somehow being "caused" by bath warm waters of -14 through to almost -40c.

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