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#1186628 - 28/03/2013 12:42 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2360
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
IDD20510
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

FLOOD THREAT ADVICE
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1055 CST Thursday 28 MARCH 2013

AREA INVOLVED
Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.

RAINFALL SUMMARY
In the past 24 hours widespread falls 20-50mm were recorded over the Top End and
Gulf country with scattered falls of 50-100mm and isolated heavier falls.
Heaviest fall was on the Gulf coast at Bing Bong Port with 233mm.

WEATHER SUMMARY
The monsoon trough is located close to the north coast of the Top End. A
tropical low near Darwin is expected to move slowly west southwest over the
Timor Sea during the next few days. Scattered showers and storms with areas of
rain, heavy at times.

FORECAST for the rest of today and Friday
Scattered showers and storms, with areas of rain. Widespread falls 20-50mm,
scattered falls 50-100mm. Isolated heavy falls to about 200mm may lead to
localised flooding and significant stream rises.

OUTLOOK for Saturday and Sunday
Scattered showers and storms with areas of rain. Some easing of rainfall may
occur in the eastern Top End and Gulf Country from Sunday as the low moves
further away from the NT. Widespread falls 20-50mm, scattered falls 50-100mm.
Isolated heavy falls to about 200mm may lead to localised flooding and
significant stream rises.

NEXT ADVICE
Around 11 am Friday.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
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#1186633 - 28/03/2013 13:46 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17911
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
You guys have had a half decent wet season this year. Everytime I look at the radar there seems to be storms or rain of some sort.
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#1186636 - 28/03/2013 14:12 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
refstar Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2012
Posts: 310
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
You guys have had a half decent wet season this year. Everytime I look at the radar there seems to be storms or rain of some sort.



That statement is untrue, sorry. It's our driest in 40 years, and for the eastern Top End it has been the driest on record.

The last few days have helped, but we're ~700mm behind wet season average still and unlikely to make that up.

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#1186638 - 28/03/2013 14:24 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Abitcheeky Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2011
Posts: 7
It's still dry in the cbd. Overcast but still warm and humid. I swear sometimes it seems like Darwin has a rain shield and all of the good rainfall avoids us.
Might contemplate moving out to a rural area

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#1186640 - 28/03/2013 14:35 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: refstar]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2360
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: refstar
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
You guys have had a half decent wet season this year. Everytime I look at the radar there seems to be storms or rain of some sort.



That statement is untrue, sorry. It's our driest in 40 years, and for the eastern Top End it has been the driest on record.

The last few days have helped, but we're ~700mm behind wet season average still and unlikely to make that up.


I believe the decile 5 median between the months of November 1 and April 30 is 1600mm odd. To date Darwin Airport has received roughly 1184mm with some substantial rain to come and another month to go. More than likely won't reach average at that particular site but it certainly isn't indicative of overall rainfall in the region and is definately not what one would consider such a dramatic failure as is being insinuated in this post.

Over 1300mm here in Millner for instance and I know of others with significantly higher totals. Assuming at the end of the season we end up with say 1500mm, that would represent over 80% of average which in the grand scheme of the past few seasons would be pretty good in my opinion. Averages are averages for a reason after all.

EDIT - After looking closer at the AP figures it would appear "average" is less than I first thought making the current totals look not so bad after all.


Edited by Orebound (28/03/2013 14:49)
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#1186646 - 28/03/2013 14:55 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
refstar Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2012
Posts: 310
Incorrect.You're using 2 stats here - Median & Average (or mean)

Median is 1532.1 (Oct to April)
Mean (average) is 1686.5mm

AP to date: 1202.7mm

OK - so not the 700mm I thought, only 500mm with 4 weeks to go. Hard to see that being eroded given no more monsoonal action expected after this Rossby Wave.

The rest about Eastern Top End and Darwin's poor wet is well known across all media (inc. social) and no argument needed.

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#1186655 - 28/03/2013 15:42 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: Orebound]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17911
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Orebound
that would represent over 80% of average which in the grand scheme of the past few seasons would be pretty good in my opinion. Averages are averages for a reason after all.

EDIT - After looking closer at the AP figures it would appear "average" is less than I first thought making the current totals look not so bad after all.


I'd be happy too. Cairns is showing between 60-80% Dec-Feb. If your airport is anything like ours it is a poor indicator of totals in the surrounding suburbs.
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#1186656 - 28/03/2013 15:46 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2360
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Orebound
that would represent over 80% of average which in the grand scheme of the past few seasons would be pretty good in my opinion. Averages are averages for a reason after all.

EDIT - After looking closer at the AP figures it would appear "average" is less than I first thought making the current totals look not so bad after all.


I'd be happy too. Cairns is showing between 60-80% Dec-Feb. If your airport is anything like ours it is a poor indicator of totals in the surrounding suburbs.


Yeah well it's all relative isn't it.

Anyway, light rain at the moment. Hopefully things start to ramp up again into the evening.
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#1186658 - 28/03/2013 15:52 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17911
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yeah it is. Heaps of doom and gloom stories over here too but I've had a metre of rain since the wet started. Broome would kill for that sort of total.

I'm sure if I flew up there it would be fairly lush at the moment. Perspective is often a lot wiser than statistics. Unless you're a politician.
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#1186661 - 28/03/2013 16:02 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Abitcheeky Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2011
Posts: 7
Never mind the seasonal totals. Can someone please explain why it's not peeing down in down in darwin.
I am not knowledgable in all things weather, so expect you guys to have the answers

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#1186663 - 28/03/2013 16:04 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
refstar Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2012
Posts: 310
Not doom and gloom at all - real concerns.

Usually by now the Dam would be full. This "wet" has only added ~200mm to the dam levels. Last season ~2.5m, season before ~3.5m.

As you can see from the graph, the dam falls between 30 - 40% each dry season. Currently it's only 77% full.

Real chance that it will be 40% or lower by the end of the dry, which is when water restrictions are considered.

http://www.powerwater.com.au/__data/asse...nfall_March.pdf

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#1186666 - 28/03/2013 17:31 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
MillnerNT Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2010
Posts: 323
Loc: Millner NT
The biggest problem with Darwin River Dam this wet is the losses due to evaporation. We have not had the extended cloudy periods that you normally get.
As for the rainfall in the western top end, I don't think we are doing to bad. There has been much worse I would imagine.
Lets hope we can score some more rain and see Darwin River Dam responding to Inflows.

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#1186667 - 28/03/2013 17:34 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
old_man_fisho Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2012
Posts: 36
Originally Posted By: refstar
Not doom and gloom at all - real concerns.

Usually by now the Dam would be full. This "wet" has only added ~200mm to the dam levels. Last season ~2.5m, season before ~3.5m.

As you can see from the graph, the dam falls between 30 - 40% each dry season. Currently it's only 77% full.

Real chance that it will be 40% or lower by the end of the dry, which is when water restrictions are considered.

http://www.powerwater.com.au/__data/asse...nfall_March.pdf


Of course the figures that you have put forward there negate the fact that dam spillway was raised to ~45.6m(from ~44.56m) in Jan 2011 and the dam currently sits around 200mm below the old spillway level...meaning in old days it would be just about normal...and of course the graph only extends back to Nov 2008 since which Darwin has recieved 2 well above average wets and 2 average wets, you can't really expect to be getting "average" every year and what's so bad about water restrictions??? confused
But hey who cares about missing information when using a graph? Smells a lil bit like climate change me thinks...or missing how to vote cards! LOL! wink
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#1186670 - 28/03/2013 18:06 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2360
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Gee who would have thought something as simple as a few rainfall figures would have turned into some ridiculous debate about what is essentially a pretty insignificant perceived problem. Seriously.

There goes the neighbourhood. Only a matter of time until AGW got a mention.

Wake me up when it's done.
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#1186714 - 29/03/2013 06:23 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
The low in the NT looks to be fairly hooking In a southerly direction. If only it could have gotten over water. This could have been the last hurrah frown

It was looking very very impressive on satellite yesterday.
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#1186769 - 29/03/2013 12:55 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yeh Trav, i agree that it looks to have travelled well south this morning although BoM disagree and say its still "near" Darwin.
Some very impressive rainfalls still being recorded, ironically well away from the Low's centre. Mataranka 213mm up to 9am and many falls of 100 plus again in the katherine region which should see some good rises in the rivers if it continues, which it appears that it is. Cullen River up to 46mm since 9am.
Has mostly missed Darwin area so far but feel that we may catch up today and tomorrow wink

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#1186771 - 29/03/2013 13:14 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Maybe my eyes were playing tricks on me mate, it was 5am in the morning when I wrote that...

Ill beleive the Bom smile lol


Edited by Trav Dog (29/03/2013 13:15)
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#1186810 - 29/03/2013 16:39 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 184
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I am loving the fact that we have FINALLY got some decent rain falling up here where I am. Seriously, this has been the best rain we have seen here for the whole 'wet' season.

Darwin's figures have been way better than ours our here, but we may finally see some water over the floodplains up here....

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#1186823 - 29/03/2013 17:48 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: croc crew]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yeh CC, the weather radar for you're area looks awesome atm. This has been a godsend for the top end thats for sure! grin

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#1186838 - 29/03/2013 19:01 Re: Top End & NT Wet Season - March 2013 [Re: PVW]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 643
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Well that Storm developed quickly, very heavy rain and dangerous CG's dropping here at work north of Palmerston, just had one hit a building about 100m away!! Holy crap that almost blows your ear drums!!

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