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#1208255 - 25/08/2013 21:32 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
200 height looks like this!

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#1208256 - 25/08/2013 21:36 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
This the pressure anom for July 2013...but does not come up as an ftp file it is unfortunately! Sorry yes it now does come up!lol!


Edited by bd bucketingdown (25/08/2013 21:43)

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#1208257 - 25/08/2013 21:40 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
And here is 200hpa height for July 2013.
Enough info overload for you there, Crikey! smile


Edited by bd bucketingdown (25/08/2013 21:40)

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#1208258 - 25/08/2013 21:43 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
There was a tight gradient of height there for July at 200hpa
from lowest colour min to almost the highest colour max!

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#1208262 - 25/08/2013 22:05 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Those last 2 charts have vanished, but can be found on BOM site!

been plenty of solar flares around as big or much bigger than any recent one as we are at solar max albiet a weak cycle 24

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#1208315 - 26/08/2013 18:44 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
A few more snaps of the AUGUST 2013 Upper air anomalies ...
Met office global satellite picture indicating an intense low near the latest SWW hot spot south of sth Africa
25th Aug 2013


24th Aug 2013
and a snap of the significant increase in ozone in the donut around the south pole. This is rising air and warming stratosphere
SWW create more ozone?
Notice the decline in ozone where the air is sinking over the south pole and is cooling


Jetstream raised near the SWW currently sth of sth Africa
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#1208730 - 31/08/2013 17:56 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
NERD 65 has reported a deep southern ocean on another thread.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1208689/Deep_Southern_Ocean_Low#Post1208689
I had a look at the upper stratosphere 10hPa and there is continuing atmospheric waves orbiting around the south pole.
Geopotential height anomalies consistent with those strong vertical wave patterns

This action seems to be creating warm stratospheric anomalies at the crest of the waves.
Here is a snap of the 25 th Aug. 2013

Underneath these warm stratospheric warmings are areas of intense low pressure and underneath the troughs of these waves is anomalous blobs of high pressure at the troughs of these waves



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml



-----------------------------------------

I also came across this information which confirms the anomalous shrinking of atmosphere over the south pole and the associated anomalous high surface pressure

This is the affect at the surface
........
Found some implications of the increased high pressure over the Antartic circle

Quote:Antarctic sea ice extent for August 19 is 18.70 million square kilometers (7.22 million square miles), a record or near-record high level (August 19, 2010 was similarly high), led by unusually extensive ice in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross seas, and in the western Indian Ocean sector.
Climate conditions since June have been variable,
but the most recent surge in ice growth has occurred during a period of unusually high pressure over the center of the continent,

resulting in a slowing of the circumpolar winds,

warm winter conditions for the central ice sheet areas (Vostok Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station both had periods of spring-like -30s earlier in the month),


and cold conditions in the Bellingshausen, allowing ice to grow extensively there.

source
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76273-arctic-ice-discussion-2013-melt-season/page-33
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#1209658 - 09/09/2013 22:38 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
An amazing Report of record swings of temperature extremes in Sth America.
On August 29th the temperature soared to 32.6C (90.7F) at Bahia Blanca, Argentina, an all-time record for the month of August. This follows a reading of -7.9C (17.8F) recorded on August 25th, their all-time record low for the month!
The site has a POR (period of record) of over 100 years. Their normal daily range of temperature during August is 9.2C-16.0C (49F-61F).
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=189
Looks as though the events in the stratosphere are linked. THe article showa the anomalies of 500mb geopotential height.
The atmospheric waves continue around Antartica
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#1209739 - 10/09/2013 21:23 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
stormy_bec Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 328
Loc: Kimberley Station Qld
I'm finding this thread very fascinating. Keep it coming crikey.

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#1212581 - 04/10/2013 21:16 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hey.. Glad you are following stormy-bec!
Still lots of action in the SH 10hPa layer. BIG waves! still
Appears to be a standing pattern currently with the same height anomalies persisting in the same regions((se the animation in the above post)
They don't appear to be rotating around the south pole like they were in the earlier months.

Currently the 200hPa jet stream is very wavy/meridonal.
The sub-tropical jet next Wednesday the 9th oct 2013 will dip as low as the TASMANIAN LATITUDE!!
I have never seen the sub-tropical jet that far south!!

This will be accompanies with a large high pressure cell seated in the trough of the sub-tropical jet!! centred as far north as Brisbane!! with some severe troughing to the east in the coral sea near the Islands once again.
This surface high is likely to bring anomalously warm winds from the anomalously hot interior down southward across SA and VIC and maybe 'Tassie' this week..Approx' 8th/9th oct2013

Here is a snap of the sub-tropical jet well south!! on the 9th Oct2013



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1212664 - 06/10/2013 08:52 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 681
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hey Crikey , spot on with your prediction and forecast. Hobart on Wednesday forecast for 24 degrees !! 7 over average , but after 23 here yesterday I would say it's a good chance of being much warmer.
Will be interesting for sure.

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#1213687 - 15/10/2013 13:30 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: crikey
An amazing Report of record swings of temperature extremes in Sth America.
On August 29th the temperature soared to 32.6C (90.7F) at Bahia Blanca, Argentina, an all-time record for the month of August. This follows a reading of -7.9C (17.8F) recorded on August 25th, their all-time record low for the month!
The site has a POR (period of record) of over 100 years. Their normal daily range of temperature during August is 9.2C-16.0C (49F-61F).
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=189
Looks as though the events in the stratosphere are linked. THe article showa the anomalies of 500mb geopotential height.
The atmospheric waves continue around Antartica


It looks as if the current SSW was retrograding around the 7th/8th of this month, is that normal behaviour for these events?

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#1215703 - 29/10/2013 20:30 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Sorry CS22.. I missed your comment on the 15thOct

CS22 said
'It looks as if the current SSW was retrograding around the 7th/8th of this month, is that normal behaviour for these events?

Hi ..Just dropped in for a 'raincheck' on the current animation

Yes, CS. Looks like the wave pattern has subsided. Just looks like some residual 'sloshing about' as the wave amplitude subsides
I guess this is 'normal' as SSW waves are a winter phenomena
as far as l understand

Noting the 14th October 2013 ..The wave has gone..and a zonal flat lake looking image remains

I think the red ( warm anomaly) will weaken as summer deepens)
Notice the SSW cranking up in the NH as it should for their winter.

There is a nice warm anomaly emerging in the NH at 120E currently

Strong surface lows are often synonymous with SSW as far as l have noticed so far.. I think the rising / expanding warming anomalies creates a wave effect or disturbance

The sun is moving away from the Northern hemisphere and l think the days are shortening in the Arctic and cold on the surface increases

Looking at the animation. Looks like a period of transition from SH to NH , in terms of SSW activity. ( end of October in 2013)
regards

PS
If you want to follow the NH SSW events
Here is a great UK thread.. dedicated to SSW's

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-8


Edited by crikey (29/10/2013 20:30)
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#1216930 - 07/11/2013 22:58 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Worth quoting the post below at this time - just watch how the the warming fades away to nothing before popping up again to the SW of Australia. Interesting to watch how these changes tie in with the SAM - would love to be able to explain it away but way above my head. Instead just watching the patterns and learning slowly.

Originally Posted By: crikey
An amazing Report of record swings of temperature extremes in Sth America.
On August 29th the temperature soared to 32.6C (90.7F) at Bahia Blanca, Argentina, an all-time record for the month of August. This follows a reading of -7.9C (17.8F) recorded on August 25th, their all-time record low for the month!
The site has a POR (period of record) of over 100 years. Their normal daily range of temperature during August is 9.2C-16.0C (49F-61F).
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=189
Looks as though the events in the stratosphere are linked. THe article showa the anomalies of 500mb geopotential height.
The atmospheric waves continue around Antartica




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#1223310 - 02/12/2013 11:03 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Is there such a thing as a Stratospheric Cooling event? Reason being 10hpa temps look very cold at the moment in both SH and NH, or is this what we consider normal?

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#1223325 - 02/12/2013 13:37 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
No such thing that I have ever heard of CS in my long career, and googling it produced zip also!

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#1223331 - 02/12/2013 14:21 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Thanks BD. I also could not find anything on Google, hence why I thought I'd ask. smile

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#1223355 - 02/12/2013 17:03 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
CS22 and BD..There are stratospheric temperature anomaly time series to view for some comparison with the long term mean

Here is a link
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/

Yes it does appear to be cooling generally across the board CS22. Nice observation

As an example from their latitude menu
This time series anomaly graph below confirms cooling below the mean for the NH between latitudes 90-65N at 10Hpa layer ( upper stratosphere)
and is occurring at all latitudes from what l could deduce

( hot linked and will update)
source link
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mbnhlo.gif


Interesting to note from the above graph that this time last year there was a cold dip toward the coldest anomalies from OCT 2012 to April 2013
I suppose you could argue that this was a stratospheric cooling event in general.
Notice also the NH SSW that occured in the depths of the strong cooling anomaly last January ( NH winter)

Perhaps a repeat of last year emerging?

Something to observe here.. grin


Edited by crikey (02/12/2013 17:06)
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#1223362 - 02/12/2013 17:57 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Could be Crikey! Will be interesting to watch and see what eventuates.

Below is a bit of a write up(without his fancy charts) from Joe D'Aleo on this very subject that you might find interesting.

Will a stratospheric warming take place again this winter?

November 25 06:48 PM

We know the AO and NAO play a key role in the Northern Hemisphere winters. A negative AO/NAO is associated with polar high pressure and upper level warming that causes cold air to push south into mid latitude continents.

Often a collapse of the AO/NAO is precipitated by what is called a stratospheric warming. See the one that developed in late December last year. It took a while to have a major impact on the weather as the pressure rises did not reach the critical 500mb level mid troposphere right away in any significant way. It really was late winter and spring that did and the late major blizzards of the late winter and spring resulted.

The SSWs begin with a bubble rising into the stratosphere in South Central Asia that starts a disruption and sinking into the polar region. See also how it affected UK in similar fashion with collapsing AO spikes tied to UK cold periods.

A very good description of the phenomena and the causes by a television producer by day, who as a hobby, studied climate and weather nights and weekends for over 30 years (here).

The classic high latitude stratwarms/blocking of course was the 2009/10 winter when two pulses took place and dominated the entire winter. I wrote about it early in November that year here.

The general rule has been the westerly QBO at solar max and east at solar min had a tendency for SSWs but in the long solar minimum of recent years, it did not seem to matter with warmings and blocking almost every winter.

The 2010/11 winters started blocky out of the box and had rebound warmings in the mid trop near 500mb in early February when a major snowstorm occurred.

It has been cold in the arctic so far with a positive AO. The animation that follows shows a warming in the North Atlantic/arctic. No sign yet of a south central Asia disruption beginning. As the animation above showed, it moves very fast once it begins. The descent back down into the troposphere may lag weeks.

With the sun near a solar max (not a great one) and the winds westerly throughout the stratosphere, one might expect one to occur this winter. The other solar max year in a relatively weak cycle with a similar west QBO was 1969/70.

Much more to come.

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#1223381 - 02/12/2013 20:53 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
A cold event always follows a warm event(SSW)I note In NH where they really get them SH events are fairly weak in comparison!
last years NH event follows...

About best I can find for SH is here 2002 below...

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