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#1190023 - 18/04/2013 09:07 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
snafu Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/06/2012
Posts: 1437
Loc: Belmont, Lake Macquarie, NSW
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
The fatal flaw with your reasoning Bill is that there has in fact been warming over the last 18 years. It is unscientific of you to ignore the huge amount of warming that has gone into the oceans.


And just how huge is that amount of heat that has gone into the oceans CeeBee? The graph you display from the NODC is based on data from Levitus et al 2012; World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010 - Full paper

From the abstract:

We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates are based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, and bathythermograph data corrected for instrumental biases. We have also used Argo data corrected by the Argo DAC if available and used uncorrected Argo data if no corrections were available at the time we downloaded the Argo data. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 10*22 J (±2S.E.) corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C.

So, according to Levitus et al 2012, the average temperature of the global oceans to depths of 2000 meters warmed a huge 0.09 deg C (or 0.16 deg F) from 1955 to 2010.... shocked

What's more is that Levitus et al also identifies the warming of the depths of 0 to 700 meters:

The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 10*22 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C.

The depths of 0-2000 meters warmed 0.09 deg C from 1955 to 2010, but the warming of the top 700 meters was twice that amount. That means the warming of the depths of 700 to 2000 meters, where the warming is said to continue, was miniscule in terms of deg C.

h/t to Bob Tisdale for the above information.

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#1190026 - 18/04/2013 09:28 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
As I keep saying it is the solar downturn that causes jetstream changes, the artic ice is just way of trying to somehow connect everything in weather that happens to AGW!
Also, incidently, those ocean temps have been questioned for accuracy by many!

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#1190028 - 18/04/2013 10:12 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: CeeBee]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
The fatal flaw with your reasoning Bill is that there has in fact been warming over the last 18 years. It is unscientific of you to ignore the huge amount of warming that has gone into the oceans.



http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/






Ceebee, you keep talking about the tiny ocean heat content increase without understanding what it means to have such a tiny ocean heat content increase.

It means there are indeed, very substantive negative feedbacks in effect.

Very substantive negative feedbacks means that global warming will be less than your backyard warms up between 10:00 am and 10:15 am.

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#1190032 - 18/04/2013 10:44 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637

And those negative feedbacks that you claim exist Bill resulted in the hottest land temps in the Southern Hemisphere last Summer on record and the record melting of Arctic sea ice and continued melting of glaciers worldwide, and the hottest temps globally in 2010 and continued warming of the oceans.

BD - are you able come up with some actual peer reviewed science that back up your claims that a solar downturn has caused the changes to the Arctic polar jet stream that we are now seeing.
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#1190038 - 18/04/2013 11:42 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: CeeBee]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: CeeBee



BD - are you able come up with some actual peer reviewed science that back up your claims that a solar downturn has caused the changes to the Arctic polar jet stream that we are now seeing.


I provided it for him, it explains 1 cold winter in every 11 years. It also does not claim that arctic sea ice has no effect, they don't mention that at all.


Originally Posted By: Bill Illis



Ceebee, you keep talking about the tiny ocean heat content increase without understanding what it means to have such a tiny ocean heat content increase.






Does anyone apart from the denialist crew think it's a tiny increase ? Show us some papers to say the increase is not historically significant.


IPCC calls it significant

"heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1°C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m–2, and conclude that the available heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in ocean heat content. "


Edited by Enrique (18/04/2013 11:47)

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#1190039 - 18/04/2013 12:21 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
You provided nothing that I can remember En I have tons of peer reviwed literature about solar-jetstream connections but am too busy atm will get back when less busy CB...plenty to choose from!

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#1190043 - 18/04/2013 12:54 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
I provided a peer reviewed paper, you probably ignored it because they believe AGW is real....

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#1190045 - 18/04/2013 14:11 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
We're talking specifically about the Arctic polar jetstream BD and how it has changed recently as shown in the video I posted. Any papers you have will need to address that link only.

Video Explains How Loss Of Arctic Ice Weakens Jet Stream, Amplifies Extreme Weather
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#1190046 - 18/04/2013 14:20 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
yes yes yes I know that!

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#1190143 - 19/04/2013 17:12 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Should l be concerned CB that Professor Francis from the you tubelink you posted,reckons the jet-stream is flowing at quote " something like 500mb"?
( re:at 4 min 12 sec on the video)

I think she means 200mb ( 200hPa)?

Forgotten some basic 1st year meteorology perhaps

Also .. The explanations do not distinguish the mid-latitude pattern of the jetstream ( sub-tropical jet) and the polar jet stream.
----------
There is considerable variation in the cause of jetstream patterns in the research literature and is quite a young research area.


The IPCC report2007 ,has the jetstream heading in the opposite direction compared to Prof Fraser's explanation?
with CO2 induced warming?

quote from IPCC's forecast jet-stream behaviour..


Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations

David J. Lorenz,
Eric T. DeWeaver

Article first published online: 26 MAY 2007

DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008087
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008087/abstract

"The change in the extra-tropical circulation under global warming is studied using the climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report.
The IPCC models predict a strengthening and a poleward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets in response to global warming. cry

( Prof 'francis says the jets are weakening and meandering well south??. )

The change in zonal jets is also accompanied by a strengthening and a poleward and upward shift of transient kinetic energy and momentum flux. Similar changes in circulation are simulated by a simple dry general circulation model (GCM) when the height of the tropopause is raised. The similarity between the simple GCM and the IPCC models suggests that
the changes in mid-latitude circulation are predominantly driven by a rise in the height of the tropopause,
and that other factors such as increased moisture content and the change in the low-level pole-to-equator temperature gradient, play a secondary role.
In addition, the variability about the ensemble-mean of the zonal wind response is significantly correlated with the variability of the tropopause height response over the polar cap, especially in the Southern Hemisphere."

---
There is considerable variation in peer reviewed research on the response to the jet-stream toCO2 induced global warming
You can read peer reviewed research of the jet-stream heading poleward or south..

Peer reviewed research is not unanimous on this topic

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=958


This is also peer reviewed research on the Ozone concentration to the jet-stream patterns

and there is also per reviewed research on the how solar max and min affect stratospheric temps and ozone concentration and jetstream patterms

I fear there is another fad' taking off..

Lets all get on the C02 induced jetstream meanders bandwagon!!


Have l got something wrong here CB?
Why is the new theory on jet-stream position for C02 induced warming, different from the position of the IPCC 2007 report?
Ch 3

I think it would be fair to say the jetstream strengthened and contracted poleward in the 90's and weakened and meandered southward in the 2000's?

The contention for C02 as the forcing factor for this decadal change in jetstream pattern looks weak?
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#1190144 - 19/04/2013 17:19 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The varied and often complely oppisite predictions made by the AGW crowed are their biggest friend. It means their will always be a correct prediction. At the time they push the one they think will cause the most hyseria and after the event they refer back to the ones that were closer to the mark.


Edited by Brett Guy (19/04/2013 17:21)

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#1190149 - 19/04/2013 18:05 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: crikey]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Originally Posted By: crikey
Should l be concerned CB that Professor Francis from the you tubelink you posted,reckons the jet-stream is flowing at quote " something like 500mb"?
( re:at 4 min 12 sec on the video)

I think she means 200mb ( 200hPa)?

Forgotten some basic 1st year meteorology perhaps

Also .. The explanations do not distinguish the mid-latitude pattern of the jetstream ( sub-tropical jet) and the polar jet stream.
----------
There is considerable variation in the cause of jetstream patterns in the research literature and is quite a young research area.


The IPCC report2007 ,has the jetstream heading in the opposite direction compared to Prof Fraser's explanation?
with CO2 induced warming?

quote from IPCC's forecast jet-stream behaviour..


Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations

David J. Lorenz,
Eric T. DeWeaver

Article first published online: 26 MAY 2007

DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008087
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008087/abstract

"The change in the extra-tropical circulation under global warming is studied using the climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report.
The IPCC models predict a strengthening and a poleward shift of the tropospheric zonal jets in response to global warming. cry

( Prof 'francis says the jets are weakening and meandering well south??. )

The change in zonal jets is also accompanied by a strengthening and a poleward and upward shift of transient kinetic energy and momentum flux. Similar changes in circulation are simulated by a simple dry general circulation model (GCM) when the height of the tropopause is raised. The similarity between the simple GCM and the IPCC models suggests that
the changes in mid-latitude circulation are predominantly driven by a rise in the height of the tropopause,
and that other factors such as increased moisture content and the change in the low-level pole-to-equator temperature gradient, play a secondary role.
In addition, the variability about the ensemble-mean of the zonal wind response is significantly correlated with the variability of the tropopause height response over the polar cap, especially in the Southern Hemisphere."

---
There is considerable variation in peer reviewed research on the response to the jet-stream toCO2 induced global warming
You can read peer reviewed research of the jet-stream heading poleward or south..

Peer reviewed research is not unanimous on this topic

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=958


This is also peer reviewed research on the Ozone concentration to the jet-stream patterns

and there is also per reviewed research on the how solar max and min affect stratospheric temps and ozone concentration and jetstream patterms

I fear there is another fad' taking off..

Lets all get on the C02 induced jetstream meanders bandwagon!!


Have l got something wrong here CB?
Why is the new theory on jet-stream position for C02 induced warming, different from the position of the IPCC 2007 report?
Ch 3

I think it would be fair to say the jetstream strengthened and contracted poleward in the 90's and weakened and meandered southward in the 2000's?

The contention for C02 as the forcing factor for this decadal change in jetstream pattern looks weak?



Did you not understand that I am talking about the recent record Summer Arctic sea ice melt and the effect that is having on the polar jetstream?

Unusual winter jet stream patterns tied to Arctic sea ice loss

Unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, according to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss". They found a mathematical relationship between wintertime Arctic sea ice loss and the increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia, typical of what one sees during a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the mid-latitudes.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2370
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#1190175 - 19/04/2013 21:06 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmm. Jeff Masters is usually on the ball and l would trust his viewpoint but tonight l think that has changed!. .

Just read the research paper that Jeff Masters reckons he has read?
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036/article

and l fail to find the word jet-stream appear in the research paper AT ALL!

This means that the introduction to his blog article which says

quote.. J Masters
"Unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, according to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss". ( RUBBISH Tang et al said no such thing!!. J Masters said Jetstreams but Tang et al didn't!)


Master's blog article is a misrepresentation of tang et al's research!

Tang et al's findings were observations of MSLP ( surface pressure)
and Blocking patterns.

THere is NO mention of the stratosphere or jetstreams at all!!

Proof!
LOad the research paper in google

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036/article

select FIND.. from the file menu at the top of the browser and select find
enter the word..jetstream..in the search box FIND: jetstream

and.. bingo..
Nothing.

Phrase NOT found. Computer goes sound..dong!..error
Phrase not found.


How can you take someones research and add your own conclusions with no basis?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2370
Jeff masters needs his' bum' smacked for shoddy reporting!
Have l missed something here?

Maybe his junior understudy is writing his blogs these days?

Tang et al 2013 make one comment re CO2 induced global warming which is the last sentence of their open access commons research paper.

QUOTE
"
If the association between Arctic sea ice and cold winter extremes demonstrated in this study is robust, we would expect to see a continuation and expansion of cold winter extremes as the sea ice cover continues to decline in response to ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.


Tang et al (2013) looks to be a Chinese study available at NO cost to read.
Does that mean the paper is not peer reviewed if it is free to read?

Tang et al provided NO evidence of how there very interesting work was related to levels of C02?
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#1190210 - 20/04/2013 07:10 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Crikey,

This is from the study that Jeff Masters has based his article on.

Winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favors the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.

Note the underlined words above.

atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes - or in other words the jet stream.





Edited by Seabreeze (20/04/2013 13:35)
Edit Reason: baiting
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#1190240 - 20/04/2013 10:54 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14151
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
No CB atmospheric circulation means all winds from ground level to the highest possible. It does not specify Jet Stream but rather ALL winds.
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#1190282 - 20/04/2013 14:36 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
CB said
"BD - are you able come up with some actual peer reviewed science that back up your claims that a solar downturn has caused the changes to the Arctic polar jet stream that we are now seeing."

Here is one such research paper published in 2010 . A combined effort by some UK , German and Korean researchers

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

M Lockwood1,2, R G Harrison1, T Woollings1 and S K Solanki3,4

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/fulltext/

quotes
"We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. ...
..
The observed increasing trend in the NAO between 1965 and 1995 may have contributed considerably to the warming trend in European regional temperatures (including CET) in winter [9] and solar modulation of the NAO has been suggested as a cause of the cold European winters experienced during the Maunder minimum [3].
Recent studies of solar influence on the phenomenon of jet stream `blocking' [7] are consistent with these ideas....
...
The current solar minimum has seen an unprecedented maximum in cosmic rays detected by high-latitude neutron monitors...
..
( My comment)Image shows an inverse relation between galactic cosmic index and and solar flux index



...

The results presented in section 4 allow rejection of the null hypothesis, and hence colder UK winters (relative to the longer-term trend) can therefore be associated with lower open solar flux (and hence with lower solar irradiance and higher cosmic ray flux)..
..
For example, enhanced cooling through an increase in maritime clouds may have resulted from the cosmic ray flux increase [25]
Alternatively, tropospheric jet streams have been shown to be sensitive to the solar forcing of stratospheric temperatures [26]. This could occur through disturbances to the stratospheric polar vortex [27] which can propagate downwards to affect the tropospheric jets, or through the effects of tropical stratospheric temperature changes on the refraction of tropospheric eddies [28]...
..
Interestingly, early instrumental records from the end of the 17th century indicate an increased frequency of easterly winds influencing the UK temperatures [29]. This has also been deduced from indirect proxies [30, 31], including the spatial patterns of changes in recorded harvest dates [32]. This suggests a link with the incidence of long-lived winter blocking events in the eastern Atlantic at low solar activity

These extensive and quasi-stationary anticyclones are characterized by a reversed meridional gradient of geopotential height and easterly winds [7, 33, 35]. Blocking episodes can persist for several weeks, leading to extended cold periods in winter as the mild maritime westerly winds are replaced by continental north-easterlies and the land surface cools under cloudless skies. In particular, long-lived Atlantic blocking events at more eastward locations have been found to be more prevalent at sunspot minimum than at higher solar activity, an asymmetry that is enhanced by the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, and this leads to colder winters in Europe [7].
This evidence suggests that changes in the occurrence of blocking could be acting to amplify the solar-induced perturbations to the tropospheric jet stream [26]. Blocking events have been shown to modulate the stratosphere via upward propagating planetary wave disturbances, but the magnitude, extent and lag of the correlations over Europe strongly suggest that the perturbation to the stratospheric wind pattern can, in turn, influence the blocking [35]. This feedback may be the mechanism by which solar-induced changes to the stratosphere influence European blocking events.
Other evidence supports this idea. For example, changed position and frequency of blocking events may be seen as a manifestation of modes of low-frequency circulation variability which have been found to respond to solar activity [36]
giving increased/decreased frequencies of easterly/westerly circulation patterns over Europe under conditions of low solar activity

Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and ask `Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the climatological mean)?' Our results strongly suggest that it does, which has implications for seasonal predictions.

------------


Edited by crikey (20/04/2013 14:40)
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#1190304 - 20/04/2013 17:03 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Thanks crikey! Just so.
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#1190306 - 20/04/2013 17:24 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637

The paper you are quoting from crikey is all to do with what could happen in the future if there is a downturn in solar similar to the maunder minimum, which of course hasn't happened yet, so the paper does not explain what is happening now in Europe, the UK, parts of the U.S, etc.
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#1190311 - 20/04/2013 19:35 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Seabreeze]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
No different really to the AGW extremist papers that hasn't happened yet? Giggle

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#1190314 - 20/04/2013 20:34 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Simmosturf]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Giggle seconded wink

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