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#1191658 - 29/04/2013 10:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: MareebaWeather]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: MareebaWeather
Originally Posted By: boomer
Zaney is pretty much where it needs to be at -12.6 153.8 (if you are not sure exactly where it is and want to easily track it especially when/if it gets closer then go to the Willis Island radar at 512km and use the cursor to find the position).

Willis will only work to 256km to its north.
Looks like "insane zane' will enter the radar black hole between Cairns and Weipa.

Using the cursor allows people to easily locate its position and its relevant distance to where they may be... it doesn't matter if banding cannot be seen.... having said that it is my understanding that cloud tops should be able to be seen well beyond 256km (due to earths curvature) it is just that rain strength may not be identified.

On Zaney's track, crossing around Lockhart River, not much has changed on the multi's. Having said that the local BoM has indicated it may go to Cat 2.... if so I would imagine the track will push further south possibly to around Cooktown (for now).
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#1191659 - 29/04/2013 10:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Yeah, if it can get to a decent intensity it might try run down the coast a bit before crossing. Fingers crossed anyway.

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#1191664 - 29/04/2013 11:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Position now -12.5 153.5 with intensity up to 30kts.
It has been stationary for the last several hours and virtually unmoved for 18 as it sorts itself.
.... agree that Zaney will now probably get named this arvo or this evening.
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1191668 - 29/04/2013 12:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: boomer]
nooty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 497
Loc: Glenella, Mackay
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#1191676 - 29/04/2013 12:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
JTWC seem to have put it a fair way further East than it appears? Well, looks like that to me.

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#1191680 - 29/04/2013 12:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Possie is consistent with Rammb -12.5 153.5.
Visually that seems about right on the vapour loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.htmlisually
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1191681 - 29/04/2013 13:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
mm, I suppose, easy to lose track of the LLC under all that convection. He's looking great at the moment, will be surprised if he's not named this afternoon.

It's actually pretty windy here too, must be quite a pressure gradient.

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#1191687 - 29/04/2013 13:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 1652
Loc: Mt Stapylton, QLD
Where does Aussie AOR start up there? I thought BoM would of had a track map up even as a TL.

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#1191689 - 29/04/2013 13:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
160E, definitely within our AOR. Usually they just stay conservative to not freak people out early, and get as much data as they can before putting out a trackmap.

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#1191700 - 29/04/2013 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
You can see the LLC in the last few frames of the Vis sat image, looks to be heading directly W to me.

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html

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#1191702 - 29/04/2013 14:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13138
Loc: Cairns
I'd say SW in that last couple of frames.

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#1191713 - 29/04/2013 15:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Green n Lumpy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/11/2008
Posts: 733
Loc: Cardwell QLD
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:49pm EST on Monday the 29th of April 2013 and valid until end of
Thursday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 10am AEST Monday, a deepening tropical low was situated approximately 930
kilometres east-northeast of Cairns and 1,090 kilometres east of Lockhart River
and moving slowly in a west-southwest direction. The tropical low is expected to
continue to deepen while developing more of a westwards track as it approaches
the far northeast Queensland coast during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: High
Wednesday:High
Thursday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

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#1191715 - 29/04/2013 15:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Just noticed they've left out a possible crossing location this time. Most models seem to think it'll take a NW curve as it approaches the coast, but if it doesn't, looks like it's headed right for Cooktown.

Keen for the 5pm update to see if he gets a name smile

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#1191718 - 29/04/2013 16:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13138
Loc: Cairns
I'll be very surprised if they name it at 5.00.

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#1191724 - 29/04/2013 16:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 795
Loc: Redlynch
Apparently a track map is inniment, according to ABC Far North (via twitter)
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"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1191725 - 29/04/2013 16:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Well, not named yet, but there is an advice out for it now. Trackmap to follow presumably:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20023.txt

EDIT: Here we go. Crossing pretty far up North, won't get much down here if it goes up that far frown



Edited by Things (29/04/2013 16:44)

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#1191726 - 29/04/2013 16:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 795
Loc: Redlynch
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:38 pm EST on Monday 29 April 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Thursday Island to Cooktown.

At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
1030 kilometres east of Lockhart River and
890 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and
moving west at 6 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

A deepening Tropical Low situated over the northern Coral Sea is moving slowly
in a westwards direction and is expected to deepen further while continuing to
move in westwards direction tonight.

STRONG GALES may develop about coastal areas between Thursday Island and
Cooktown during Wednesday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop
across parts of far northern Queensland late Tuesday and during Wednesday as
the deepening Tropical Low approaches the coast.
People between Thursday Island and Cooktown should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 152.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday 29 April.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1191727 - 29/04/2013 16:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 795
Loc: Redlynch
Sorry Things! Posted for posterity though!
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1191728 - 29/04/2013 16:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 1652
Loc: Mt Stapylton, QLD
In regards to aus aor 160e yea but how far South. On the ol Wiki it says CS starts at 18S? I take it PNG is also a part of Aus?

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#1191731 - 29/04/2013 17:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 7021
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Don't think it covers PNG, this shows it well:



Hoping that track map may edge a bit further South with each update grin

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