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#1191898 - 30/04/2013 13:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: Popeye]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Trav Dog
Definatly not a 998hpa cat 1 popeye poke


Yeah hope it cranks up to a 990hp CAT 2 wink
Are any Oz Cyclone Chasers heading up for a chase. I noticed most flights into the region are cancelled for tommorow but today still was good. Be nice to sit out a remote crossing on Cape York. That would look nice on your TC CV.
Or is it a armchair chase again?


OOOH you are on fire lately Pops LOL
TC withdrawal is bitch hey


Edited by boomer (30/04/2013 13:58)
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#1191899 - 30/04/2013 13:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6914
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Latest map has him getting up to cat 3, and budged slightly South again!



Surely if he gets up to cat 3, higher level steering will well and truely take over?

Both BoM and JTWC confirm he is still heading WSW, I wasn't just seeing things grin

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#1191901 - 30/04/2013 13:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Cybermouse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Redlynch, Cairns
I,m amazed at how quickly Zane has developed over the last 24 hours. Def underestimated him! Nice feeder bands, I think we'll see an eye by tomorrow morning.
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#1191902 - 30/04/2013 14:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Shear is no longer a problem if Zaney goes south (toward Cooktown and Cairns).... it's now about steering.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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#1191903 - 30/04/2013 14:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6914
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
He's already a 2, it's crazy! Watch out Pops, we're out to beat your strongest cyclone for the year grin

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#1191905 - 30/04/2013 14:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
I think this is the right steering range.... if so it could easily go further south methinks
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=
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#1191906 - 30/04/2013 14:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6914
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
Looking at those charts, I can't really see what's gonna make him go North at all? Seems the closest he could get is going directly W, steering at all layers is either W, WSW or SW according to that chart.

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#1191907 - 30/04/2013 14:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 22537
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
the stronger he gets the more he will errode into the ridge. didnt think he stood a chance of reaching severe status.
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#1191908 - 30/04/2013 14:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
That Airport at Bamaga/Injinoo (Cape York) looks like a sealed runway. I reckon with a little push/nudge further to the NW over the next 36hrs and that area would be in the direct firing line. Time will tell I guess but it would have been a wicked chase. Cape York TC, the scenery, the water, the islands, the swell, tropical vegetation. Bugger to miss it. Hopefully someone on the ground up there gets some footage of Zane.

Maybe Lockhart River now. CAT 3. QLD Severe System in MAY. YOUCH.


Edited by Popeye (30/04/2013 14:14)
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#1191910 - 30/04/2013 14:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Adele Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2010
Posts: 333
Loc: Middlemount Qld
Latest bulletin from BOM has it as a cat 2.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 1:49 pm EST on Tuesday 30 April 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Cape
Tribulation.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to Cape Grenville,
including the Torres Strait Islands.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Zane, Category 2 was estimated to be
730 kilometres east of Lockhart River and
530 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and
moving west at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZANE, CATEGORY 2, with wind gusts up to 130km/h is expected to
develop a west-northwest track tonight and cross the far northern Queensland
coast between Orford Ness and Lockhart River late Wednesday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 150 km/hr may develop between Cape Grenville and
Cape Sidmouth late Wednesday. GALES are expected to develop about coastal areas
between Cape Grenville and Cape Tribulation during Wednesday morning and may
extend further north and west to the Torres Strait Islands and the western side
of Cape York, north of Mapoon, later on Wednesday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cape
Grenville and Cape Sidmouth. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the
foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop
across parts of far northern Queensland later today and during Wednesday as the
system approaches the coast.

People between Cape Grenville and Cape Tribulation should immediately commence
or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

People between Mapoon and Cape Grenville, including the Torres Strait Islands,
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Zane at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 149.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Tuesday 30 April.

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#1191911 - 30/04/2013 14:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Trav dawwggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 21415
Loc: Parramatta
It's to hard to organize a chase this quickly and this late anyway popeye. The intensity of this system came out of nowhere.

Even if I was home, logistically...it would be too late to do it. Warnings and watches are in place.

We wouldn't have known until 2 hours ago that this was even going to be half decent.

Hindsight is a great thing.
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#1191912 - 30/04/2013 14:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
TESHUB Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 1338
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld Aus
Go Zane, you are a late starter but full of energy - the one who catch's out all those who go home from the show early haha
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#1191913 - 30/04/2013 14:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I wonder whether Zane could end up being one of these late season Midget cyclones that just happens to sit in the right place and bombs away.

Originally Posted By: Things
He's already a 2, it's crazy! Watch out Pops, we're out to beat your strongest cyclone for the year grin


Maybe a CAT 5 910Hpa? Still a chance lol.

Nahh awesome to see. Just when settling back into Blue sky and no weather up pops this little surprise. Bring it on. I hope it just gets better and better and stronger and stronger. I love the unpredictability of cyclones.


Edited by Popeye (30/04/2013 14:26)
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#1191914 - 30/04/2013 14:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 13035
Loc: Cairns
LoL Popeye.

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#1191915 - 30/04/2013 14:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6914
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
If he reaches Cat 5, can pretty much guarantee he's gonna head SW, and I don't want that anywhere near here thank you, you can keep your Cat 5's grin

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#1191917 - 30/04/2013 14:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 4765
Loc: Diamond Valley
It's just inzane isn't it?
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#1191919 - 30/04/2013 14:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 6914
Loc: Bohle Plains NQ
LOL, damn, was just about to post that!

How he has bombed in the last few hours is crazy, basically none of the models expected this. I kind of expect dramatic changes in the next few runs.

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#1191921 - 30/04/2013 14:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 347
Loc: Edmonton QLD
Can someone explain in very basic simple laymans term to this very amateur weather watcher why the stronger it gets the more chance of it moving less north is. What is it about the steering influences and the higher cat that could make it swing south

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#1191922 - 30/04/2013 14:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
LonglifeMilk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Edmonton
OK - so goin by the comments the general consensus seems to be the more Zane intensifies,the more southerly his track. I am then not understanding why, since he seems to be intensifying at a cracking pace, have BOM not changed the watch/warning locations to reflect a more southerly crossing? Is the swing in a more southerly direction expected to be too insignificant to worry about? What is supposed to be causing this push north? I am not seeing it. Sorry if this is a series of silly questions...but really trying to wrap my brain around it...

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#1191923 - 30/04/2013 14:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Zane (Coral Sea) April 2013 [Re: ColdFront]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5875
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon he looks awesome on latest sat images. Definately cranking up big time. What steering infuences will come into play if Zane intensifies and climbs the notches up to a CAT 4. Different steering influences with a deeper system. Midgets can get bounced around alot easier than big solid systems. I am not even sure if Zane is a Midget so I guess a bit of specualtion there on my behalf.
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