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#1182408 - 10/03/2013 12:45 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Rainy Night Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Forecast track map (as posted by Steven) has Sandra missing New Caledonia, just to its west. With the expected weakening to Cat 2, it may not have too much impact on Noumea.

Also High Seas Warning from Fiji -
"HURRICANE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/0056 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH
160.4 EAST AT 100000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.9S 160.4E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
101800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 34 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.7S 161.2E AT 101200 UTC
AND NEAR 17.5S 161.8E AT 110000 UTC."

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#1182450 - 10/03/2013 15:39 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Steven Offline
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Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
New Caledonia will get heavy rain but hopefully the destructive core misses and spares the country.

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#1182523 - 10/03/2013 23:11 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Looking that way. They got a bath recently, would have dried out by now tho. However, its not over for the CS or South Pac... still some potential coming along the trough from the Gulf over the next week or two.
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#1182862 - 12/03/2013 17:10 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Looks like "Tim" the follower may follow a similar track to Sandy, but it stage it looks like it will be more west of New Cal and have little , if any, impact.
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#1183698 - 15/03/2013 20:22 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
From Fiji Met - two TD summaries. 19F is shown on their TC outlook map.
Bit more froth in the cappuccino or the early stirring of the "Vanatu thing"

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 15/0650 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F CENTER [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.9S 173.0E
AT 150600UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

ORGANISATION GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED TO THE NORTHWEST OF LLCC
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD WITH NO
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***********

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 19F CENTER [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S 170.2E
AT 142100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

ORGANISATION POOR. DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED SLIGHTLY NEAR LLCC PAST
12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES WEST OF A UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD WITHOUT
MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORCAST IN THE
AREA.

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#1183701 - 15/03/2013 20:51 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just looking at the equatorial wind streams.
Thought the monsoon trough forecast for Monday is looking very disorganized.( see map below)
Lack of cross equatorial flow is quite evident in both the equatorial Indian and pacific and even a tropical low appears to be forming in the Northern ! hemisphere
North new Guinea area. 5 deg N 150 E

Of note is the strong advection of tropical flow well into the mid latitudes but lacking strong organised synoptic features

Also of note is the trend to easterly windstreams across the entire Indian ocean

Even though there are a number of lows across the equatorial region . THey are not formed from the traditional N/west infeed and s /east inflow.
So l would be inclined to say that the monsoon trough is disintegrating into a non active period.
Those lows would be tropical lows although not situated on the monsoon trough.?
THe high pressure band has centred quite south atm.at 32 deg S

I would assume this changing surface pattern is largely a move toward autumn and an inactive phase of the trough.?



ACCESS also indicating TC TIM or EX ..landing just off the mid qld coast
Ha. THat forecast by this model is for Monday.
Seems a bit early?
How far away is TIM from MACKAY atm?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Edited by crikey (15/03/2013 20:55)
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#1183707 - 15/03/2013 21:41 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: crikey]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
crikey
from yr last post " even a tropical low appears to be forming in the Northern ! hemisphere North new Guinea area. 5 deg N 150 E

I see NRL Monterey have an invest for this area -97S
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Thanks for your chart analysis - always informative and interesting.


Edited by gawain (15/03/2013 21:43)

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#1183846 - 16/03/2013 15:56 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns


Edited by boomer (16/03/2013 15:56)
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#1183853 - 16/03/2013 16:29 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
The Vanuatu thingy is on the cards… and it should drift toward the OZ AOR as Timmy heads NW
Upper divergence… good
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Lower convergence… bit elongated but pretty good
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
Shear tendency
Not ideal but good if it drifts SW as progged.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
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#1183897 - 16/03/2013 21:03 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
gawain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2007
Posts: 448
Loc: kuranda, qld
Fiji Met losing interest in 19F for now. Victorian University of Wellington showing some groovy westwards action for end of next week

http://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.php?type=rain®ion=swp&tim=174

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/0850 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 19F CENTER [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 169.0E
AT 160600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM HOWEVER, NONE OF THE MODELS
ARE KEEN ON DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE
WEAK AND NOT SUPPORTING THE SPIN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ON TD19F UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORCAST IN THE
AREA.

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#1183947 - 16/03/2013 23:08 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
LoL re the groovey move
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#1184646 - 19/03/2013 22:51 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Might be some action out around New Cal. Convergence, divergence and vorticity starting to occur. Shear may be an issue.
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#1184752 - 20/03/2013 14:03 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4245
Loc: Brisbane
Yep shear certainly looks to be the issue. 30knts and increasing in the shorter term.

Mind you if it keeps heading west as it appears to be doing the GFS charts would seem to indicate in the longer term (about 48hrs and beyond) shear becomes much more favourable.

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#1184757 - 20/03/2013 14:25 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
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Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
I'm not overly hopeful... but the south Pac has had a bloody good year.
Having said that I'm mildly confident Rammb will throw an invest on it.
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#1184850 - 20/03/2013 19:15 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Should it head north it's not out of the question.
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#1188982 - 11/04/2013 21:43 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Fiji Met seem to be giving the mass to the NW of New CaL a low chance of spinning up in the next couple of days.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=4&element=0&mode=UTC


Edited by boomer (11/04/2013 21:43)
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#1191028 - 24/04/2013 21:28 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
EC deterministic is progging a low with a touch of potential around New Cal early next week.
Looks like it will head toward the graveyard should anything come of it.
But you never know.
GFS is thinking about a low nearby... no doubt the same thing... but have it crossing over Fiji without developing.... so far.


Edited by boomer (24/04/2013 21:32)
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#1191166 - 25/04/2013 18:10 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
As discussed Fiji Met are beginning to get interested. Methinks this is the back of New Cal thingy.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf


Edited by boomer (25/04/2013 18:11)
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#1191375 - 26/04/2013 23:10 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Low chance on the route earlier discussed.
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#1191458 - 27/04/2013 18:33 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Looks like (according to GFS) said thingy may skip across to Fiji as a deepening low before becoming a TC to the SE.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MO...C1=pmsl&C2=pmsl
Worth watching... that's a moveable feast.


Edited by boomer (27/04/2013 18:34)
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