Just looking at the equatorial wind streams.
Thought the monsoon trough forecast for Monday is looking very disorganized.( see map below)
Lack of cross equatorial flow is quite evident in both the equatorial Indian and pacific and even a tropical low appears to be forming in the Northern ! hemisphere
North new Guinea area. 5 deg N 150 E
Of note is the strong advection of tropical flow well into the mid latitudes but lacking strong organised synoptic features
Also of note is the trend to easterly windstreams across the entire Indian ocean
Even though there are a number of lows across the equatorial region . THey are not formed from the traditional N/west infeed and s /east inflow.
So l would be inclined to say that the monsoon trough is disintegrating into a non active period.
Those lows would be tropical lows although not situated on the monsoon trough.?
THe high pressure band has centred quite south atm.at 32 deg S
I would assume this changing surface pattern is largely a move toward autumn and an inactive phase of the trough.?
ACCESS also indicating TC TIM or EX ..landing just off the mid qld coast
Ha. THat forecast by this model is for Monday.
Seems a bit early?
How far away is TIM from MACKAY atm?
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