Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#1192855 - 06/05/2013 11:04 SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Interesting few days coming up with a frontal system likely to rapidly intensify (frontogenesis/cyclogenesis) southwest of WA before sweeping across the region with strong winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms and all the usual hazards that come with such systems. Wind speeds look impressive, even across parts of the state's interior, which might even try to cause some raised dust areas near areas which have enough loose dry surface dust. Pretty cool conditions also on the cards for western parts after the cold air comes up.

The 1st image below is an extremes anomalies map generated by an ensemble of models showing the extent of the strong winds and decent rain (compared to average for that area and time of year). The 2nd image is the EC's forecast sustained wind speeds in knots for 8pm Wed WST. Pretty strong:




Top
#1192864 - 06/05/2013 12:44 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14956
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
This one interests me quite a bit. The ones that bomb off this part of the coast are often very intense systems and this is no exception. Obs from the coastal sites will be very interesting indeed as will the storm surge. Also given the shear and instability on the front, the potential for a cold air tornado or two would certainly be there.

TS cool

Top
#1192885 - 06/05/2013 14:57 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
SST's are still nice and warm off the coast as well smile

Top
#1192907 - 06/05/2013 18:10 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Surf's up too...


Top
#1192916 - 06/05/2013 18:56 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
WOW. That's a decent 'touch up' for the south west of WA , KEN
What is the MSLP expected to be?

Here is the gradient winds for wednesday 8th may 2013 evening 10pm AEST

A very large area of rotation the size of about half of Australia!
and the centre appears to have a tight curl on the far s/west corner.

The highs are also looking massive from North to south and east to west.
The high in the Tasman and the Indian ocean look humungous!

Also of interest is the strong circulation flow at this level.
From sub polar to Tropics and from tropics back down to the sub polar.

This is good as it would imply the heat in the mid latitudes is no longer trapped and there is strong poleward returns and strong pole to equator flow.
So the 'air conditioner' is working finally.
Also some strong easterlies across the Gulf of Carpentaria

I marked with a big purple line. The line where the cold moist air from the south meet the warmer dry air from the interior as a point of interest.
Kalgoorlie along that line?

The winds on the coast look nasty as you have suggested
This looks nastier than any ECL you would see on the east coast?

I noticed it takes a steep dive south east on thursday into the southern ocean.

Wednesday looks a shocker for the s/west WA. Thanks for the heads up re: severe weather event



http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1192980 - 07/05/2013 11:25 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14956
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I'm disappointed about the blocking high in the Tasman which will limit the impact of the system into SA but there does appear to be a weakening rainband pushing across...and then some models go for a weak low filling in as it passes below SA, but now EC has cut out that possibility altogether.

But certainly a very nasty event for the SW of WA, the nasty convergent westerly flow above the top of that low will cause some serious winds, 140km/hr is quite possible. Note the forecast of destructive winds well in advance. Combine that with the low pressure and near new moon, the surge at high tide is going to be fairly significant and I'd expect some serious coastal erosion to take place.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (07/05/2013 11:25)

Top
#1192987 - 07/05/2013 12:02 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
sillyduffa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 90
Loc: Port Kennedy, WA
Hi all, I have just moved from Townsville to Rockingham. I don't have a lot of experience with this kind of weather. What can I expect from this setup? Should I prepare as one would for a cyclone? Cheers.

Top
#1192994 - 07/05/2013 13:02 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah it sounds like you should probably do a bit of a check of your property and put away anything that might be blown around. Rockingham always seems to cop a hiding from these systems.
Interesting to read everyones comments on the potential for this sytem. I wonder if it will deliver or be a bit of a let down. By the looks it will deliver. I would love to see a big weather event dumping a bucket load of rain in the Swest. Get the rivers up a flowing with a pre winter flush and start the big dam fill up of 2013. Fingers crossed for a gnarley event but hopefully without any injuries or major damage etc.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1193008 - 07/05/2013 14:30 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
sillyduffa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 90
Loc: Port Kennedy, WA
Thanks Popeye. A nice welcome to WA. It will be great to see something come out of this, as long as my roof and windows stay intact.

Top
#1193022 - 07/05/2013 17:05 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: sillyduffa]
B-Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 169
Loc: Perth WA.
First big system for the season and what a beauty it looks to be.
Large swell forcasts all up the coast that will result in some major errossion over a long period of time as the system moves very slowly.
Would be great to get them dams for once off to a good start with some 100ml + falls.
Interesting few days ahead.

Top
#1193024 - 07/05/2013 17:19 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: B-Bill]
B-Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 169
Loc: Perth WA.
Cape naturaliest gusting to 50 kph and Rottnest 52 kph at 3pm data.
Some action west of Jurrien Bay on radar looks to be heading N/E ?

Top
#1193025 - 07/05/2013 17:32 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Some pretty big rain totals progged on the coast. Wonderful looking satellite atm. Almost makes me miss Perth. Almost... wink
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1193026 - 07/05/2013 17:35 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5300
Already starting to look nice on satpics with the typical speckled cold air field coming up behind the developing system. Also some hints of a baroclinic leaf developing as well as some transverse banding in the cirrus cloud on the southeastern flank of the system... both typical signatures of a system that's likely to intensify rapidly and significantly.

Below is the output from my thunderstorm script for 1am Wed to 1am Fri which shows where GFS is developing strong updraft speeds in association with convective rain. For this frontal system, the colour probability scale is a bit misleading - much of those widespread high probabilities is caused by strong synoptic scale uplift from the fronts... not necessarily severe thunderstorms everywhere within the red areas. But still, the sheer extent of that signal is testament to how strong this system is and there should be at least some thunderstorms in the mix, some possibly severe:


Top
#1193032 - 07/05/2013 18:44 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I wonder what the tornado potential will be with this system. I would imagine pretty good. I guess we will find out over the next 24-48hrs about any trails of destruction being left behind. I have a feeling there will be a big news event out of this system. WA is becoming more and more populated. Big target for a tornado to cut through somewhere.

Also news from ABC

Severe weather predicted for parts of WA

Severe weather is predicted to hit Perth and many parts of the state from tonight. - ABC

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning severe weather conditions could cause widespread damage in parts of WA as two fronts approach the state.

The bureau is predicting winds similar to a category two cyclone from Perth through to Albany tomorrow.

The storm is expected to bring conditions seen only seen every four or five years in the south-west.

A separate system is forecast to hit the state's north-west tonight.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast for between Exmouth and Geraldton and will move to the Gascoyne and Goldfields tomorrow.

Emergency services are urging people to prepare their homes for the severe weather.

- ABC
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1193036 - 07/05/2013 19:07 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Really wish there was a radar down around the capes..
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1193042 - 07/05/2013 19:46 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Posts: 744
Yep, I often think the same thing Ruckle, when these hefty lows cross down there.

Thunder and lightning is just starting near Kalbarri, plus a few spots of rain and a dark and chunky looking river flowing through the sky heading Perthwards.
Bring it on.

Top
#1193051 - 07/05/2013 20:14 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
B-Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 169
Loc: Perth WA.
Just passed by the beach on way home from work. Northley drift with about 2 mtr swell running but looks to be on the way up.
Actually quite calm with light winds and a few surfers out
Recon that may change soon !

Top
#1193077 - 07/05/2013 23:29 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The national loop indicating the rain band / front has arrived on the WA coastline. It is long and looks exactly like ACCESS R suggested at 10 pm AEST!! Tick.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml

The isobars look good on the BOM synoptic
Haven't seen that for awhile in the s/west?



ACCESS R has that CAT 1/2 mid latitude cyclone with a central pressure at 992 hPa tonight at 10 pm AEST
and at 982 hpa in 24hrs time . A drop of 12 hpa in 24 hrs
Getting to 977 hPa in the Southern 0cean as it drops south.
Not confident that access R is much good at getting the central pressure correct though.


Currently 997 hpa at cape leuwinn with 40mm of rain fallng between 7pm and 9pm.
http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/observations/waall.shtml?ref=hdr
Not much wind as yet?
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1193078 - 08/05/2013 00:26 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Fine Elsewhere Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/09/2002
Posts: 1876
Loc: Albany.W.A.
Hi All, calm b4 the storm here -lovely day today, beautiful evening, working on tractor til 8pm vr pleasant. looking at the radar i recon we r about an hour away from the rain. See Witchcliffe & Capes had fairly heavy drop between 5pm till now. Cape had 2 inches in about 4 hrs! heavy rain for the west...
cheers FE

Top
#1193131 - 08/05/2013 14:48 Re: SW WA - Vigorous frontal system - 7th to 10th May [Re: Ken Kato]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5092
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Rottnest island recording wind to 65km/h with gust to 83. Fairly solid

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
7 registered (Steve O, Teddy, Mcbobbings, Mike Hauber, Kino, Eigerwand, 1 invisible), 52 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
CraigA74, Ken, Maarten Brandt, wing tip vortex
Forum Stats
29654 Members
32 Forums
23962 Topics
1497862 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image