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#1192995 - 07/05/2013 13:09 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
The latest ENSO update from BOM today should be very interesting. Cooler SST's in the East and up to minus 4 sub-surface anomalies in the central Pacific.

If this does not translate to an coming La Nina I'll be very surprised.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1193002 - 07/05/2013 14:12 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Andy Double U Offline
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Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
Couldn't agree more Locke. It's going to take one heck of a WWB to drive a Kelvin wave through this setup!


Will need to watch the +2 anomaly in the west for propagation to the east but I doubt it would make it due to the -3/4 anomaly . The angle of the thermocline itself doesn't look supportive of a nino either. With cool anomalies at the surface in the east, trades aren't going to be that slack either in my opinion.

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#1193010 - 07/05/2013 15:22 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The prospects for winter to enter with a vengeance and last well into spring seem pretty good to me with the development of the -ve IOD. It is an all too familiar pattern when compared historically to similar seasons in the past. A good cropping (albeit a little late starting) season.

Also as is well documented on here, I'd pretty confident of another La Nina in the summer, although the strength of which is still a bit of a guessing game. But a final 'wet' wet season looks pretty likely and hopefully some decent rain events occur to keep the MDB topped up. Definitely a better season than 12/13.

TS cool

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#1193012 - 07/05/2013 16:38 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I'm also wondering whether an early La Nina this year won't lead to a major El-nino event in 2014.

I've been watching that +2 pool in the West its been there for the past month or so but hasn't shown any sign of strengthening or propogating East.

If anything over the past fortnight it may have weakened slightly. Looking at a 6 month loop of the global SST anomalies the overall impression I get is of cooling oceans at surface level.

It would be interesting to run a 2 or 3 year loop at a fairly quick speed.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1193015 - 07/05/2013 16:46 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
And the latest ENSO wrap up from BOM shows temps in the Nino 3 region having cooled 0.2C in the past month and 0.3C in the past week!.

Interesting to see that although models are split between warm and cool for the coming months, most of the models showing warm are changing on their most recent runs.

For example


Where blue shows the most recent run. Even BOM's POAMA is showing a tendency towards cool.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1193023 - 07/05/2013 17:12 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: Locke]
Andy Double U Offline
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Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
Originally Posted By: Locke
I'm also wondering whether an early La Nina this year won't lead to a major El-nino event in 2014.


I tend not to worry too much about the onset of a Nina, I tend to take cues from late season cyclones close to the Equator which could initiate a WWB and force warm water back east. Statistically El Ninos don't spawn immediately after La Ninas either, demonstrated recently by the past couple of seasons since the strong 2010/11 Nina.

^--- I think that's the generally accepted reasoning lol, had a late one last night!

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#1193075 - 07/05/2013 22:49 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
BOM sub surface chart as of May 5th and looks about the same close to -4c below normal underneath and the Western warm pool hasn't moved the past 4 months if anything its retreated back

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2013&month=05


Edited by _Johnno_ (07/05/2013 22:50)
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#1193089 - 08/05/2013 07:36 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Oops, wrong thread.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (08/05/2013 07:37)
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#1193190 - 08/05/2013 23:41 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
This is probably the wrong thread .

But many have been talking of it in here .

There is currently a late season Cyclone in the Mid Indian at about 5-10 Sth and roughly 85 E (well Sth of Sri Lanka ) ...

But interestingly it looks to feed much of its energy across the Equator and feed a new system that might take flight at similar longitude but 5-10 Nth Hem. into the Bay of Bengal come the weekend .

I hope for all SE farmers sake that this doesn't stop what was promising to be a fair chance of good winter rains form a Negative IOD event this winter spring . Fingers crossed it fizzes , for our sake and also the poor old Bangledeshi's in its possible path .


Edited by Southern Oracle (08/05/2013 23:44)
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#1193245 - 09/05/2013 13:59 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
I've been looking at EC for a number of days for Asia and it doesn't seem to have it anywhere near the Bay of Bengal and as you said looks weak anyway and moving away
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#1193408 - 11/05/2013 09:29 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Arnost Offline
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Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
Those Niño 1+2 regions are cooling strong and fast! And the cold tongue is now creeping into Niño 3. This is pretty early in the season for this to happen... Normally we wait till June/July for indications like these...

Bears close watching.
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#1193430 - 11/05/2013 11:38 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Arnost it was also this time last Year that +ssts anomalies were trying to develop in that same region, also notice the cold upwelling -ssts anomalies forming North and NW of Australia? Which ended up being our +IOD in Winter and Spring, there was no moisture at all from April til October from that region, already this Year the signs are different

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120513.gif


Edited by _Johnno_ (11/05/2013 11:41)
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#1193579 - 12/05/2013 11:45 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
-IOD anyone? Starting to really take shape now. Watch the NW infeeds over the coming weeks will really start to crank up

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta
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#1193619 - 12/05/2013 18:45 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Predict weather from ENSO?

(Someone asked me to set down my thoughts about this.)

The climates of places in Australia cycle from hot, arid and dry, to cold, humid and wet every couple of years. This is a kind of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). (Dorothea McKellar said she loved a sunburnt country "of droughts and flooding rains".) The cycles come and go, and sometimes take about one year, sometimes three or more.
The climate of the Pacific Ocean has similar cycles, called the Southern Oscillation, discovered by Gilbert Walker a century ago. The pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti oscillates in a way that reflects other widespread changes in climate. This is now called the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and it is monitored by sea-surface temperature in the Pacific, called NINO3.4.
Now that we have up-to-date data on NINO3.4, the public has been led to believe that the data can be used to forecast Australian weather. It really can't.
Problem No.1: Weather varies from place to place.
Every district in Australia has different weather, so one size does not fit all. Wasyl Drosdowsky made a map defining the regions that have consistent relationships to ENSO and other indices, but nobody has taken up the idea. (I would if I was boss of BoM!)
See this post, and links.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea..._var#Post863801
Problem No.2: Forecast is too late.
The ENSO cycle does not predict a cycle in any part of Australia because it happens at about the same time, and it takes a month or more to collate the data. Weather prediction from ENSO is always late. Consequently, there is a business to predict ENSO some months ahead. These predictions are very unreliable. Then the predictions of ENSO values are used to predict Australian weather, with vague statements of which regions will be affected.
To make matters worse, my Manilla data for the last 14 years shows that my weather happens in advance of the ENSO changes. If the same happens at other sites, this makes prediction from ENSO even less likely to work.
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#1193622 - 12/05/2013 20:49 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: Surly Bond]
Andy Double U Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond
Every district in Australia has different weather, so one size does not fit all. Wasyl Drosdowsky made a map defining the regions that have consistent relationships to ENSO and other indices, but nobody has taken up the idea. (I would if I was boss of BoM!)


If my recollection is correct, I'm pretty sure I have seen a map of Australia with percentage correlations according to different SST/ENSO states? Can't remember where I might have seen it and it would have to be three or four years ago when I last looked. It could've even been buried in some research paper that I read but I'm pretty sure some chart does exist.

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#1193647 - 12/05/2013 23:09 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I have found the Drosdowsky regional map of Australia that I mentioned. Unfortunately, it is in a pdf file that was sent to me (by Keith Barnett) attached to an e-mail. This is the paper:
An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950–1987. I: Spatial patterns

Figure 4 of the paper has nine maps of Australia, showing the country divided into regions that are relatively uniform in climate as it responds to ENSO etc. The first map has only two regions. The others have more, up to a maximum of ten regions. Drosdowsky seems to have found the eight-region map the most useful.
The eight regions are roughly as follows:
1. NSW and far southern QLD
2. VIC and SA
3. The rest of QLD
4. NT and Kimberley
5. Most of WA
6. SW of WA
7. Gippsland and TAS
8. Sunshine and Gold Coasts


Here is a BoM report that refers to the Drosdowsky regions.
The eight regions previously produced by Dostrowsky are shown in Fig. 2., linked in the section "(a) Rainfall Principal Components". This is BMRC Research Report No 65: Near Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as Predictors of Australian Seasonal Rainfall, by Wasyl Drosdowsky and Lynda E Chambers, January 1998.
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#1193723 - 13/05/2013 14:45 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
-IOD anyone? Starting to really take shape now. Watch the NW infeeds over the coming weeks will really start to crank up

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta


Not sure we'll even have to wait that long, Johnno! Both GFS/EC showing a rainband spilling down through the centre of the country as soon as next week! Now we just the SAM to go negative and most people should be pretty satisfied.
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#1193732 - 13/05/2013 15:54 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Gee a look at the SOI on a 12 mth running average since 1900 provides for very interesting viewing.

It is clear that what transpired from about 1970 through to early this century was radically different from what transpired in the first 70 years of the 20th century. And it certainly doesn't appear as a gradual build up but rather a regime shift.

The past 30 years bear a resemblamce to what transpired during the early part of the 20th century. By and large the SOI started the century in negative territory and built up to a peak in the 1930's which it sustained for about 40 years.

I wonder whether we have now reached a point similar to the 1930-1970 era when the SOI was consistently positive. If the same occurs for the next 40 years what does this mean for global temps given what occurred between 1930 and 1970. Keeping mind that was a period of exceptionally high solar activity also.

Not sure how this fits with AGW theory. You could argue that its for another thread but this is the climate change section and when looking at links between ENSO conditions and global temperatures its hard not to draw some conclusions on AGW as well.

For me its the disconnect between what I see happening with ENSO conditions and where AGW theory currenly lies that changed my view from supporter to skeptic. I'll link the SOI chart when I get home.

Take a very close look at it and think to your self what you might have expected to see if AGW theory is accurate. Ask yourself how increasing temps from AGW would be expected to impact the SOI on a running average and whether what you would expect is what your actually seeing.

Our oceans transport vast amounts of energy via winds and ocean currents. This transport can be very slow, is not yet fully mapped and understood and becuase of this I don't think we've yet come close to understanding the true ramifications of this for our climate system.

This doesn't negate AGW theory but it certainly has an impact on interpreting its influence on our climate.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1193772 - 13/05/2013 19:30 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
SB.. Has your dew point in Manila NSW records reached its lowest point..2013?
It looks like the inflection point upward is WELL overdue.!!?
I think there is a lot to be said of your viewpoints.
One of which
Changes occur on the mainland first.


From your dewpoint graph you would expect the change to a more humid/wet climate is due right now.
I suspect that is happening now?
I agree with you . We often see the changes in rainfall/moisture on parts of the mainland before the indicators start registering.
The rainfall dropped of last year on the mainland as the first indicator of an impending El Nino or dry neutral last year.

Note : changes to date whilst ENSO neutral include

- There has been a substantial increase in cloud cover globally over the past month..Reduced areas of clear air from surface to upper layer.

- The IOD going negative.?. warm waters off the N/west coast of OZ.

As Johnno has suggested we expect to see cloud bands arrive from the NW.. This will provide moisture for Manilla as the weeks go by.Your dew point should increase and the inflection points of your weather variables should change abruptly ..as it usually does.

and Nino 3.4 follows 3 months later you say.
La nina by August /September then?

Not out of the question

IOD neg and la Nina are a typical duo.
Is it typical that IOD always leads and Nino 3.4 follows?

I found drodowsky's paper too hard!!
Is there another with simple pictures?

-----------
CS22
La Nina ..
Neg IOD and
neg SAM.
NW in-feed bands..
warm sst around OZ
...................THe mind boggles!
--------------------
Look forward to your link LOCKE

the year 2000 did herald in a new climate regime from the perspective of cycle frequency analysis.
It is a downward cycle..
So you would think cold PDO, cold AMO, cold positive SOI ( the IPO)..'The works'
etc

From oscillation frequency analysis. This regime shift should be the biggest since the maunder minimum ..some say Dalton.

Regime shifts as SB will tell you occur as sharp inflection points on weather parameters, step up/down phase shifts, on/off switch like change.
The saw tooth wave describes these shifts well.
The change is steep and dramatic until a new reset point is reached. For some reason the upward phase is slower.

BILL said the net effect of ENSO is zero or neutral over time.
So ENSO should not cause the globe to cool? in the longer term.
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#1193773 - 13/05/2013 19:30 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
-IOD anyone? Starting to really take shape now. Watch the NW infeeds over the coming weeks will really start to crank up

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta


Not sure we'll even have to wait that long, Johnno! Both GFS/EC showing a rainband spilling down through the centre of the country as soon as next week! Now we just the SAM to go negative and most people should be pretty satisfied.


It's looking classic to me, textbook -ve IOD and La Nina combo seems to be developing very quickly. I doubt it will be as strong as the last one but with the two states occurring together and the very high SST warm anomalies that built up from the summer, it could be a very wet winter/spring period through inland AUS and SE Aus.

Definitely signs of the atmosphere responding already with a long term NW cloud band and moisture feed scenario. Excellent rain in western and central VIC overnight, and in many places that have been exceptionally dry for the last year or so. It looks like a major turn around, especially if the big rain event models are showing for much of central and inland Aus comes off in around 7-8 days time.

Also interesting to see the southern Ocean rapidly cooling atm whilst the tropical oceans stay very warm. Could be a pretty decent winter ahead (for once) in the south and east.

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