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#1195057 - 22/05/2013 12:07 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Arnost Offline
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There is a lot of quick cooling occuring at the moment - see for example:



I originally was of the opinion that there would be some warming this year based on the Pacific Ocean / Atmomsphere interactions (GWO etc). I am fast changing my mind. A good example is the procession of Kelvin Waves across the Pacific. The most recent ones, showing a lot more strength than for example the one we talked about in Sept last year, have not propagated across the basin. This may be a feature this year.

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#1195090 - 22/05/2013 14:17 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: Arnost]
Andy Double U Offline
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Originally Posted By: Arnost
There is a lot of quick cooling occuring at the moment - see for example:

...

I originally was of the opinion that there would be some warming this year based on the Pacific Ocean / Atmomsphere interactions (GWO etc). I am fast changing my mind. A good example is the procession of Kelvin Waves across the Pacific. The most recent ones, showing a lot more strength than for example the one we talked about in Sept last year, have not propagated across the basin. This may be a feature this year.


I think the chart below shows just how much cooling is going on. The strong cool anomalies across the central and eastern areas coupled with the strong warm anomaly in the west show just how firmly entrenched this setup is. Interestingly, the wind anomalies don't really reflect this... yet.


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#1195108 - 22/05/2013 15:10 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
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Loc: Brisbane
Whats the significance of the building warm pool in the North East Pacific? It seems like the only place that isnt cooling at the moment.
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#1195116 - 22/05/2013 16:04 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
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That area typically warms in the onset of a lanina Locke and then typically spreads west and amplifies .How far west depends on the strength of the event. In some weaker events some warming remains near the west coast of North America. It's not the only area warming though. The area east of New Caledonia is also warming this is typical of the onset of a lanina episode.

Nothing is set in concrete however and we saw a full reversal in June 2011 after a forecast nino. It is too early still for an certainty as the SPB (northern hemisphere) is more useful this early in the year with an elnino emergence than a lanina.

It does appear though at this early stage that the warm water pool in the western pacific is heading to depth rather than pushing east via a kelvin wave. Another sign of a shift towards lanina. We'll know a lot more in 6 weeks or so.
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#1195189 - 22/05/2013 20:50 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Interesting the model that always had a tendancy to always being warm is now going for cool neutral for the rest of this Year (POAMA) since it was fixed/adjusted it has been much better. Latest JAMSTEC which updated Yesterday is now also going for the same thing only 2 models that are going for decent cool neutral, makes sense giving whats happening at the moment, be interesting to see if the other models follow.
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#1195209 - 22/05/2013 22:14 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
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What do you mean only two models are going for "decent cool neutral"?
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#1195227 - 22/05/2013 23:45 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Last time I checked which was last week CF NOAA, NASA, EC and UK had neutral (if anything a touch on the warm side) by late Winter and Spring where these 2 models extend this "Cool phase" until the end of the Year just about
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#1195228 - 22/05/2013 23:52 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Not sure if this link will work

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

Press on the August and October dot and you will notice more models go on the warm side than the cool side CF by end of winter and early-mid spring, UK stays on the cool side its JMA, EC, METEO, NOAA & NASA that is on the warmer side but POAMA stays entreched in cool all Year and now JAMSTEC follows the exact same track.


Edited by _Johnno_ (22/05/2013 23:54)
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#1195229 - 22/05/2013 23:57 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
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It wasn't the quantity of models I was interested in but rather what you meant by "decent cool neutral". Away from centre but still neutral?

Models overall can be taken with a grain of salt at the end of May unless they are all in agreement on a developing nino (SPB being more reliable for warming trends than cooling in Northern Hemisphere Spring)

Even then they are sometimes ALL wrong as proved to be the case in June 2011 with the forecast onset of elnino ocean indicators before it swung the other way in July and developed a pattern more consistant with nina. Though the atmosphere played to a different tune that summer. When cooling is the trend (like now) it is wise to push the PD back a month or more.

I have also found that some of those models you listed seem to respond rather than lead. In other words a slight unforecast cooling now will lead to an adjustment towards cool in their next run.
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#1195231 - 23/05/2013 01:04 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Mate I wasn't having an opinion about it was just putting up a link. Decent cool to me means Cool Neutral but not quite La Nina thresholds. I know most models (not all) are reactive hence why I now will put my opinion out there now and say were possibily heading into a Cool period withot reaching La nina thresholds ignoring most the models and actually thinking BOM/POAMA are actually onto something here given whats actually happening right now smile


Edited by _Johnno_ (23/05/2013 01:07)
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#1195232 - 23/05/2013 01:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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"Decent cool" -0.3c to -0.5c below normal temps in 3.4 NINO thats my definition of it others may look at it differently
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#1195239 - 23/05/2013 05:02 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Andy Double U Offline
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Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
"Decent cool" -0.3c to -0.5c below normal temps in 3.4 NINO thats my definition of it others may look at it differently


Whilst not strictly scientific Johnno, which you weren't claiming in any case, I think it's a reasonable descriptor given the context of these forums. smile Before you posted the above, I also envisaged that a decent cool neutral was indicative of an index value approaching Nina thresholds, but not surpassing it.

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#1195241 - 23/05/2013 06:05 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Bill Illis Offline
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#1195255 - 23/05/2013 08:44 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
"Decent cool" -0.3c to -0.5c below normal temps in 3.4 NINO thats my definition of it others may look at it differently


Cheers. That's all I was looking for was some context and yeah your link is interesting given current setup that defies the large swing forecast by EC and UKmet. Both going for a reasonably big warming trend in August. UKmet interestingly reverses it back to cooling and approaching nina by October.
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#1195266 - 23/05/2013 09:16 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Locke Offline
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Loc: Brisbane
Getting close to that -0.5C Nina threshold already. I wonder what this could mean for global temps.

Given a demonstrated 3 month lag between the Nino 3.4 values and UAH values, its hard not to envisage the UAH values heading into negative territory before winter is done and its liekly to be at least another 6 months before they start to climb.
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#1195294 - 23/05/2013 11:55 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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No probs CF smile
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#1195723 - 26/05/2013 18:48 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
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Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
ENSO and a 3-year temperature-rainfall-humidity record

These graphs show how temperature, rainfall and humidity at a particular site in NSW have gone through cycles related to ENSO during the last three years.
It also shows the problems related to such a record, and tricks to deal with them.

Data
The data are monthly total rainfall recorded at Manilla Post Office and the monthly mean daily maximum temperature and early morning dew point in the Gill screen at my house.
From each monthly value, I find an anomaly value by subtracting the mean for that month of the year. The rainfall mean is a 125-year mean, and the temperature and dew point means are for a ten year reference period beginning March 1999.

Smoothing
If I plot raw monthly anomaly values, the graph shows total chaos. If I plot running means, they still show chaos.
Smooth curves, as shown here, result from smoothing with a gaussian function of half-width six months. The convention is explained in Note 1. below. The smoothing is described here.

The ENSO record
The ENSO record for the last few years is plotted on a web-page of the Bureau of Meteorology.
(The BoM graph is copied lower down the page.)

A little smoothing highlights the following events:
1. November 2009: a high peak (El Nino)
2. October 2010(approx): a deep trough (La Nina)
3. June 2011: a very low peak (Neutral)
4. December 2011(approx): a moderate trough (La Nina)
5. August 2012: a moderate peak (El Nino)
6. February 2013: a shallow trough (La Nina?)

(If clicking this does not give a larger image, click again until it does.)
The Manilla graphs
Each of the numbered ENSO events appears on both graphs.
1. The November 2009 El Nino high peak pre-dates the plotted curve, but it appears as a record high temperature anomaly. Rainfall at that time was very low, but dew point was normal.
2. The extreme La Nina of October 2010 was marked at Manilla by a very sharp reversal of trend in temperature, rainfall and dew point in that month. Temperature was very low and dew point very high, but rainfall was not high.
3. The return of ENSO to neutral in June 2011 was reflected in a maximal value of temperature anomaly in that month that was still slightly below neutral. Rainfall reached a lowest anomaly value just below zero a month earlier, in May 2011. Dew point reached a lowest anomaly value a month later, in July 2011.
4. The moderate trough in ENSO of December 2011 was marked by record-breaking (in this time frame) values of rainfall and temperature anomaly. Rainfall anomaly (smoothed) peaked at 43.8 mm in November, and daily maximum temperature anomaly peaked (negative) at minus 2.03 degrees in January 2012. Dew point anomaly also peaked in November-December 2011, without going positive.
5. The moderate ENSO (El Nino?) peak of August 2012 had a delayed response at Manilla. Rainfall and dew point anomalies were minimal in September, the dew point anomaly being a record low value. Temperature may have peaked in November, but that is the last month of fully smoothed data.
6. The shallow trough in ENSO (La Nina?) of February 2013 falls after the last fully-smoothed data point at Manilla. Partly-smoothed rainfall anomaly values were a little high in January, February, and March. Temperature was low in March, and dew point was less negative in January and February. The precise relation of Manilla's climate to this event will require data up to September 2013.

At Manilla, extreme values of temperature anomaly lagged up to three months behind extreme values of rainfall anomaly. This appears on the first graph as clock-wise curves.
For events 3 and 4, the rainfall event came a month earlier than the ENSO event.
What could explain the fact that the deep ENSO trough of October 2010 (2.) and the moderate ENSO peak of August 2012 (5.) had extreme dew point anomalies, while the moderate ENSO trough of December 2011 (4.) had an extreme rainfall anomaly?
On these graphs, most of the variation is along the diagonal axis from hot dry/arid "droughts" to cold wet/humid "flooding rains". On the rainfall graph there is hardly any variation on the other diagonal from cold dry "glacial" to hot wet "interglacial". On the dew point graph there was a drift towards cold arid "glacial" from winter 2010 to winter 2011, so that dew point values in the last 24 months have been three degrees lower than expected from the reference period data.

I present graphs like these each month in the thread "General weather/Observations of climate variation."

Note 1.
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
Note 2.
Values for May 2013 are provisional.


ENSO values:
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#1195735 - 26/05/2013 19:30 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: Locke]
Anthony Violi Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Originally Posted By: Locke
Getting close to that -0.5C Nina threshold already. I wonder what this could mean for global temps.

Given a demonstrated 3 month lag between the Nino 3.4 values and UAH values, its hard not to envisage the UAH values heading into negative territory before winter is done and its liekly to be at least another 6 months before they start to climb.


The only thing about theory Locke is that July is usually the warmest month in a La Nina year, and January the coldest. So it could cool to negative slowly by Christmas.

Also on a side note, im starting to think the cool neutral call might be the wrong one. Its looking awfully like a 2010/11 repeat to me all of a sudden. The next 6 weeks will be crucial to see if the trades strengthen, and also how much of the warmth in the west Pacific gets chewed.
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#1195891 - 27/05/2013 16:06 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ROM Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
One for the ENSO watchers to get their teeth into. ;

From Nature Geoscience

A combination mode of the annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Abstract
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by two main states: El Niño events defined by positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and La Niña events marked by cooler surface temperatures in the same region. ENSO is broadly considered to be an oscillatory instability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 that shows a tight interaction with the seasonal cycle. El Niño events typically peak in the boreal winter, but the mechanism governing this phase synchronization7 is unclear. Here we show, using observational data and climate model experiments, that the nonlinear atmospheric response to combined seasonal and inter-annual sea surface temperature changes gives rise to a near-annual combination climate mode with periods of 10 and 15 months. Specifically, we find that the associated southward shift of westerly wind anomalies during boreal winter and spring triggers the termination8 of large El Niño events. We conclude that combination mode dynamics and related shifts in western tropical Pacific rainfall patterns occur most prominently during strong El Niño events.<<<

Further from WUWT on the same paper;

New El Niño causal pattern discovered

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#1195963 - 27/05/2013 23:09 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
SB
Thanks for posting your research. Interesting as usual.

You asked
"What could explain the fact that the deep ENSO trough of October 2010 (2.) and the moderate ENSO peak of August 2012 (5.) had extreme dew point anomalies, while the moderate ENSO trough of December 2011 (4.) had an extreme rainfall anomaly?

My first thought on this .
I would suggest the first port of call in investigating the anomaly within ENSO ,would be to cross correlate the IOD index with Nino 3.4 and your manilla data
Permutations and combinations

IOD neg and Nino cold 3.4
IOD neutral and nino cold
IOD positive and Nino 3.4 cold

IOD pos and nino 3.4 cold
etc
etc
etc


and then do the same with the PDO, AMO etc
---------------

I was interested in the no of months between your noted peaks and troughs in ENSO..
Some 9 months between peak and trough and some phases shorter.
Maybe another climate variable (like the IOD or PDO ?)modulates the length of these phases or more importantly the nature of the phase ,which can modify the ENSO response in regional areas like Manilla
Being on the eastern seaboard you would be influenced by subtropical and mid latitude climate interacting
A more complex set up perhaps
You get the ECL thing happening, Length of cold fronts, N/west -I have seen on long paddock rainfall maps, the poor correlation between Nino 3.4 and rainfall spatial distribution

During a la nina in VIC we don't always get good rain it depends on other factors

Neg IOD and La nina believe is a good combination for VIC.. l believe

How do you fair in Manilla with a neg IOD?

Not insurmountable to determine/resolve with a bit of meticulous research

------------

THanks for the post on the new research ROM
Shame it Is costly to read them
I was enjoying the comments section where people make suggestions and give links
I followed some of those tonight and lead to some amazingstuf on harmonics and cycles

I was interested that they use the analogy of the harmonics of violin strings

I think this research is not new but it is papers like this that lift up the cause of studying climate by cycles and harmonics
and whether people like it or not. The power frequency bands are consistently being linked to external factors in our solar system.
This study did not link their results to resonance with the solar system but the experts in signal analysis are 'on to it" at WUWT.
The authors gave no cause of the anomalous high over the Philippines and anomalous winds terminating the El Nino.

No doubt another piece of the jig saw has ben pulled out of the box
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