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#1198258 - 10/06/2013 09:09 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: CeeBee]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Hah! classic one snafu - you just demonstrated very well your utter lack of comprehension of how CO2 works in the atmosphere! It's time for you to read and understand some science hey!

http://scienceofdoom.com/2013/01/13/visualizing-atmospheric-radiation-part-seven-co2-increases/



Thanks for this link CeeBee, that is really interesting and brings home the fact that this subject is far more complex than most people realize. That made me have to re-think how CO2 is affecting the climate. When you consider how differently CO2 affects the atmosphere depending on temperature and pressure through the various layers it makes things far more complex than I ever realized.

By changing heat transfer between various layers of the atmosphere, it becomes very conceivable how that could affect behavior of cold fronts and storms. More CO2 could well be the cause of weaker less regular cold fronts because of that changing dynamic. Cold pools that develop over land in winter like in the NH behave very differently to cold fronts passing over oceans like in the SH so you could still get some winter in NH while loosing winter in Australia.

Winter in Australia is far more dependant on the progression of colder 500mb temps from the deep south than in the NH where cold pools often travel lower to the ground. This is something that has clearly been noted by many people that upper cold temps are lacking more than the slighter increase in surface temperatures. This is the engine room for winter and snow in Australia which has been getting weaker and could well be more sensitive to CO2.

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#1198263 - 10/06/2013 09:51 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1249
Loc: toowoomba
GB i would'nt get exited about anything CB posts.

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#1198268 - 10/06/2013 10:26 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia [Re: Blizzard]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2637
Heh - the sciency stuff doing your head in hey petethemoskeet!

I suggest reading all 12 parts if you want to really understand the role CO2 plays in the atmosphere.
_________________________

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#1198275 - 10/06/2013 11:03 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia [Re: Blizzard]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Do you understand the role of CO2 in the atmosphere, Ceebee?
Or do you just think you understand the complete role of CO2 in the atmosphere?

If you do believe you understand the complete role of CO2 in the atmosphere after reading all that stuff and are qualified to give a very firm opinion on the role of CO2 in the atmosphere then you are way ahead of every other scientist on this planet.

Congratulatiions!

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#1198293 - 10/06/2013 13:57 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: GrizzlyBear
By changing heat transfer between various layers of the atmosphere, it becomes very conceivable how that could affect behavior of cold fronts and storms.

My Bold - I believe that is accurate; very insightful smile !


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/06/2013 13:58)

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#1198294 - 10/06/2013 14:11 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Why not just accept the completely natural variations in weather and climate that have ruled for the last few hundred millions of years as the reason for the percieved [ but completely unproven ] claim that cold fronts are dissapearing instead of invoking the unproven but very fashionable cause in some climate warming circles, that the quite minor increase in CO2 in relative atmospheric gas terms over the last 30 or 40 years is responsible?

Cold fronts dissapearing in this case being a theory running around looking for a reason to exist.

It's weather!

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#1198306 - 10/06/2013 18:55 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Look out the window SE Aus - there is one of those dissapearing cold fronts to arrive big time in less than 2 days???

Surely this couldnt create flooding? - not with CO2 at 400ppm - with the dams never to fill again as the Warmistas (esp. the front man - Flannery) have told us time and again over the last 10 years or more!!

And as the warmista's sooth those flooded out with "its climate variability etc." - another system is looming as well.


All foretold by models that are PROVEN to work!

[edit] - attempt to correct speeing


Edited by Petros (10/06/2013 18:58)

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#1198652 - 12/06/2013 15:57 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: ROM]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ROM
Cold fronts dissapearing in this case being a theory running around looking for a reason to exist.

To be quite blunt, it’s like saying “Cold fronts increasing across the SE of Australia..” without providing observational / historical evidence (in whatever form that might be) to support the idea smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/06/2013 15:59)

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#1198665 - 12/06/2013 16:29 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Re: #1198293 - 10-06-2013 01:57 PM:
Could be any greenhouse gas.

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#1198679 - 12/06/2013 18:26 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Seira]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
To be quite blunt, it’s like saying “Cold fronts increasing across the SE of Australia..” without providing observational / historical evidence (in whatever form that might be) to support the idea smile .


To also be blunt we would not be saying that cold fronts are loosing their potency if they were not. We would not be complaining if in fact cold fronts were increasing, it does not take much observation to see the blatantly obvious. And if you want observations they do in fact show that anyway.

This has nothing to do with rivers drying up but with snowfall and temperatures during snowfalls. Rain will always come from somewhere however the distributions and sources of moisture are changing as are the temperatures during cold fronts.

Up until the mid 90's there was never a winter at my location without 2-3 snowfalls that fell at a temperature of at least -2 or less, with some as low as -4. Many winters this would happen at least 1/2 a dozen times. Since the famous warm year 1998, this has all but ceased with the exception of one in 2000, with any winter barely now able to produce a snowfall at anything less than 0.

Its a struggle just to get a -0.3 now and very obvious in the marginal nature of all recent snowfalls that just are not falling to the lower levels where they use to. All the records of the Snowy Mountains show this also, back in the 50's 60's it was normal for Sponars Chalet to have good snow cover the likes of which even Perisher does not get anymore. This list of locations that have changed like this all over Australia's high country from mainland to Tasmania is endless and blatantly obvious.

This simple and very obvious explanation is that 500mb temps just are not getting as low as they did regularly prior to the mid 90's, a level at which CO2 absorption of heat energy is more sensitive than at the surface.

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#1198725 - 12/06/2013 21:36 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: GrizzlyBear
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
To be quite blunt, it’s like saying “Cold fronts increasing across the SE of Australia..” without providing observational / historical evidence (in whatever form that might be) to support the idea smile .


To also be blunt we would not be saying that cold fronts are loosing their potency if they were not. We would not be complaining if in fact cold fronts were increasing, it does not take much observation to see the blatantly obvious. And if you want observations they do in fact show that anyway.

This has nothing to do with rivers drying up but with snowfall and temperatures during snowfalls. Rain will always come from somewhere however the distributions and sources of moisture are changing as are the temperatures during cold fronts.

Up until the mid 90's there was never a winter at my location without 2-3 snowfalls that fell at a temperature of at least -2 or less, with some as low as -4. Many winters this would happen at least 1/2 a dozen times. Since the famous warm year 1998, this has all but ceased with the exception of one in 2000, with any winter barely now able to produce a snowfall at anything less than 0.

Its a struggle just to get a -0.3 now and very obvious in the marginal nature of all recent snowfalls that just are not falling to the lower levels where they use to. All the records of the Snowy Mountains show this also, back in the 50's 60's it was normal for Sponars Chalet to have good snow cover the likes of which even Perisher does not get anymore. This list of locations that have changed like this all over Australia's high country from mainland to Tasmania is endless and blatantly obvious.

This simple and very obvious explanation is that 500mb temps just are not getting as low as they did regularly prior to the mid 90's, a level at which CO2 absorption of heat energy is more sensitive than at the surface.

I was thinking of the opening post for this topic when I wrote it; I meant it as relevant not dismissive.

Bold - While I don't fully understand the dynamic / mechanism re: 500 mb temps and CO2 absorption more sensitive, I guess it makes sense in some way. What level (roughly) is 500 mb in metres (say average)? And what makes it unique compared to other levels?

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#1198756 - 13/06/2013 07:22 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
500mb is at the geopotential height of the weather models, eg last night ECMWF showed geopotential of 558, that actually means 5580m above sea level where you would find the 500mb of pressure.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013061212!!/

The reason that is mainly used is because it is close to half way through the atmosphere in terms of mass. That is 1/2 the mass of the atmosphere is above that level and half below, that is why the pressure is 1/2 that of sea level. Because the mid point of all the atmosphere is being measured its a good indicator of the major controlling dynamic of the atmosphere. If you like this is the building block of all weather that needs to fit into this big picture.

Because Australian snow needs to arrive across so much southern ocean we cannot get the cold low level airmass's that arrive hugging the land. That is why our snow is driven much more by forcing from the colder 500mb temps embedded with cold fronts that push down our 850's temps and provide the required instability. If the atmosphere is more sensitive to CO2 changes at lower pressures and lower temperatures then to me its conceivable that those colder upper temps are becoming more fragmented before they can reach Australia from the south than was the case a few decades ago.

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#1198822 - 13/06/2013 13:14 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Interesting theory GB, i recall in the NSW thread someone posted that the low max temperatures in Sydney have been increasing for some time now. That and the lack of cool air over the mountains is a sign that times are changing, cold front activity is getting weaker plus particularly in the east, Winter is getting shorter. Im not sure if you keep historical data, but it would interesting to see if there has been a marked change in 500mb temps.

We do still get the odd ripper of a front, but i find that some of the strongest fronts occur in mid spring.


Edited by Enrique (13/06/2013 13:15)

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#1199825 - 19/06/2013 18:18 Re: Cold fronts disappearing across the SE of Australia.. [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Well we are now nearly mid point through 2013 and there still has not been one cold front this year. Hopefully a ripper in latter winter, would be nice if all the oomph was being saved up for the one cold front when it arrives.

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