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#1201800 - 30/06/2013 07:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5189
Loc: Dural
Steady, sometimes heavy rain since the wee hours here.
32mm's since 9 yesterday. 34 mm for the previous 24 hrs.
Totals just keep climbing.

Homer

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#1201801 - 30/06/2013 08:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1250
Loc: Australia
Ken Ring,who is a long range weather forecaster, was on radio yesterday. He seems to think that July and August will be very dry for Sydney as the winter westerlies start to dominate the country from this week onwards , and no more significant rainfall until the storm season kicks in later in the year.
Not sure how accurate this person is, but apparently he predicted this recent rainfall for Sydney some months back.

He must be confidant there will be no more east coast lows for this year.
Interesting to see how it pans out.

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#1201803 - 30/06/2013 09:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
When you think about this year so far weather patterns have actually been fairly close to normal. Statistically Sydney/east coast does get more rain in June and also westerly's do normally begin in July and go through to first half of September when they peak in strength before easing very fast after the Equinox.

The thing more abnormal has been the fact that temps have been consistently higher than normal and by now we usually get one or 2 decent one off fronts. Other than that all else is as expected, that forecast is just following what is normal.

BOM are being really silly with that 19 for next Thursday, when it clearly has to be near 24 or so.

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#1201805 - 30/06/2013 09:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
The 1st Ben Offline
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Registered: 25/09/2001
Posts: 1191
Loc: Petersham Nth (H); Neutral Bay...
72.5mm to 9am here in Petersham. Final June figure 328mm. New all months record since site opened in Jan 2011.
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(H) Petersham (North), Inner West, Sydney. Rainfall YTD 474.5mm (2016: 1296.2mm)

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#1201808 - 30/06/2013 09:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 854
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Not sure what has been wrong with the Sydney radar these last two weeks or so but it has consistently had no/light rainfall over us when in fact it's raining quite steadily which also shows up on the Wollongong radar as dark blue/green.

Must be really undercooking the rainfall for these parts.


Edited by Perfect Storm (30/06/2013 09:34)
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#1201817 - 30/06/2013 11:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1405
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I dont think we have seen the last of the rain this week,if that low up north moves south,as predicted,I think the rain from it will make it down at least to the Hunter.no rain this morning as yet.

http://www.freewebs.com/supercell1/


Edited by Stormy3 (30/06/2013 11:19)
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#1201820 - 30/06/2013 12:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GrizzlyBear]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 815
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: GrizzlyBear
When you think about this year so far weather patterns have actually been fairly close to normal. Statistically Sydney/east coast does get more rain in June and also westerly's do normally begin in July and go through to first half of September when they peak in strength before easing very fast after the Equinox.

The thing more abnormal has been the fact that temps have been consistently higher than normal and by now we usually get one or 2 decent one off fronts. Other than that all else is as expected, that forecast is just following what is normal.

BOM are being really silly with that 19 for next Thursday, when it clearly has to be near 24 or so.


This would be almost a record for July, and definitely a record for early July.
A temp of 24C in the 1st half of July is an extremely remote possibility.
The peak cold days in Sydney are 8th-10th July, where record highs are never above 22C.

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#1201858 - 30/06/2013 19:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GrizzlyBear Offline
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Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
But still looks like at least 24, I would be unwilling to put money on less, if anything models keep ramping up the 850's and westerly wind. In fact it may even tie the July record on Wednesday up here. Then Thursday as the westerly gets stronger is Sydney's warmest day.

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#1201877 - 30/06/2013 22:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3505
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's a calm, cool, clear and pretty damp night here in Sydney. I spent most of today on the Central Coast where the weather was better than forecast, with a bit of what we've not seen much of lately, especially on weekends - blue sky:


Tuggerah Lake by Stevevii77, on Flickr

We've had more than enough rain. Sydney looks to finish June with over double the June rainfall, with maxima close to average and minima 1 to 2 degrees above average.

I'm looking forward to a dry spell, with what looks like a cold change at the end of this week.

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#1201879 - 01/07/2013 00:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Ben Offline
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Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Originally Posted By: GrizzlyBear
But still looks like at least 24, I would be unwilling to put money on less, if anything models keep ramping up the 850's and westerly wind. In fact it may even tie the July record on Wednesday up here. Then Thursday as the westerly gets stronger is Sydney's warmest day.


Agreed. BoM are being very silly with the forecast of 19 on Thursday. We have 12c 850s on the day and a moderate NW'ly wind. 24 at least you would think, but definitely potential for higher. I believe the July record in Sydney is 26.9c.. so has the potential to get close! 850 temps on Wednesday are also similar, although the winds are generally only light so probably only low 20's.


Edited by Ben (01/07/2013 00:09)

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#1201884 - 01/07/2013 01:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1405
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looks like some more showers coming on shore now moving slowly inland from the Hunter coast north,could get a bit heavier tomorrow, all on the movement of the low in north east NSW.
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#1201888 - 01/07/2013 07:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Ben]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 815
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Ben
Originally Posted By: GrizzlyBear
But still looks like at least 24, I would be unwilling to put money on less, if anything models keep ramping up the 850's and westerly wind. In fact it may even tie the July record on Wednesday up here. Then Thursday as the westerly gets stronger is Sydney's warmest day.


Agreed. BoM are being very silly with the forecast of 19 on Thursday. We have 12c 850s on the day and a moderate NW'ly wind. 24 at least you would think, but definitely potential for higher. I believe the July record in Sydney is 26.9c.. so has the potential to get close! 850 temps on Wednesday are also similar, although the winds are generally only light so probably only low 20's.


It is actually 25.9C, in late July 1990.
A number of places in the north of the state and heading to SEQ have July record highs early in the month, as winter takes a lot longer to set in, and late June-early July can have a late surge of warmth.
This does not seem to happen the further south you go.

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#1201898 - 01/07/2013 09:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
It really has not stopped raining down there since I left 3 weeks ago. You guys had a crazy June starting from the first weekend of June.
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#1201899 - 01/07/2013 09:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9747
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We headed from Bathurst to Quirindi via Mudgee, Gulgong, Coolah on Saturday arvo. We were basically skirting the western edge of rain all the way till just after Coolah. Mostly we only had light stuff but we could see some very heavy cellular structure and heavy rain just nearby a number of times.

The area immediately east of say Coolah and around the Liverpool Ranges had clearly copped some heavy rain and the big storm was still only moving on very slowly.

Between Tambar Springs and Caroona etc are a number of gullies & creeks that flood when the Liverpool Ranges cop it. Most of them had brown muddy flow through them, paddocks were soaked and pooled.

We were behind that big cell by then and only had a few spits later on.

The country up that way looks good, many paddocks on the Liverpool Plains won't be able to be driven on for a while - too wet and black soil.

Came home yesterday via Scone, Bunnan, Merriwa, Ulan. There was a lot of shower/rain activity once we hit the coastal side of Murrurundi (Nowlands) Gap. We had plenty of showers till just before Merriwa. Then nothing until south of Mudgee. No precip after Ilford.

All the streams coming off both sides of the Liverpool Ranges running and looking lovely.

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#1201900 - 01/07/2013 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4333
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Some really heavy showers yesterday afternoon and overnight 63.7mm in the 24hrs to 9am.
Should get a couple more showers this morning, then hopefully we get a bit of drying trend happening!!!

231.1mm for the month of June.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 15.9mm
YTD 1110.3mm
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YNWA

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#1201904 - 01/07/2013 10:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 435
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
At last, SUN! It has been a while smile

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#1201909 - 01/07/2013 11:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1405
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Only 66 mms here for June,A long way be hind other places Ha.
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http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1201915 - 01/07/2013 11:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 74
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Finally, some sunshine!


Edited by Ben K (01/07/2013 11:53)

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#1201918 - 01/07/2013 12:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DerekHV]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5297
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Originally Posted By: DerekHV

It is actually 25.9C, in late July 1990.
A number of places in the north of the state and heading to SEQ have July record highs early in the month, as winter takes a lot longer to set in, and late June-early July can have a late surge of warmth.
This does not seem to happen the further south you go.


Yes you are right, must have been getting mixed up with June.

Yeah statistically speaking that is normally the scenario, however we have had a couple of warmish days in early July, even this century (24c on July 4th 2004, 23.3 on July 3rd 2007). With the setup as models are showing it now, you would think these figures are certainly a possibility, while with 12c 850s (and even 13c on latish GFS) coupled with a 10-15 knot average NW'er 25-26c would certainly be a chance. The day is looking very dry though.

Shall be an interesting to see how the day turns out. Models like OCF are only picking 20cish.


Edited by Ben (01/07/2013 12:16)

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#1201945 - 01/07/2013 16:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9747
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Stunning day out here after a frosty start (-1.5) and heaps of fog until about 10 am. Day got to about 15 but felt much warmer with full sunshine all day. Should be a frost tonight too.

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