Page 27 of 43 < 1 2 ... 25 26 27 28 29 ... 42 43 >
Topic Options
#1202326 - 04/07/2013 09:50 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Andrew Miskelly Offline
Weatherzone Webmaster

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 3149
Loc: Mittagong, NSW
I'd say that blob of cooler air at 850hPa is just a remnant from one of the previous weak cut-offs that's been hanging around western NSW and has been advected SE by the winds ahead of the approaching main front.

In line with that temps at 850hPa around these parts are dropping from above 10° at 12Z last night to 1-2° this morning before recovering overnight tonight as the blob passes and then falling below zero once again tomorrow as the main front slips past.

The thermal gradient over NSW at present is such that 850hPa temps over the MNC are over 15°! In line with this, winds at that level are forecast to reach up to 70 knots over the Illawarra and surrounds this morning. It will be interesting to see to what extent that mixes down. Currently 24 gusting 36 knots at Moss Vale AWS.

Top
#1202329 - 04/07/2013 10:04 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
It should still get cooler around the Katoomba area from this weekend but probably not much unseasonably so.

As for inversions ahead of cold fronts, they can be common as the the more northerly flow on the backside of retreating highs becomes warmer than the ground & the air immediately above, especially on clear nights at lower elevations during winter.


Edited by Ken Kato (04/07/2013 10:05)
Edit Reason: added stuff

Top
#1202337 - 04/07/2013 11:13 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
Thanks Andrew, GB and Ken,

Interesting stuff. The thermal gradient over NSW as AM mentioned could produce violent winds here, especially near the escarpment. We are actually coming up to the anniversary of the 140kph plus winds in July 2011 here.

Also, for those unaware, the towering pines are now largely gone from the Hydro Majestic area and the views to the west are astounding from the GWH, a bit distracting whilst driving actually. The winds coming off the escarpment mid morning felt notably stronger than Mt Boyce AWS readings.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1202338 - 04/07/2013 11:26 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Noticed a bit more activity around the Hydro of late. Hope it finally opens again soon after so many stutters.

Getting quite windy and very cloudy here now, like Aslaws said, it LOOKS to the eye that a significant change is coming, shame the models disagree.

The speckled cloud in the bight looks very nice.

Top
#1202343 - 04/07/2013 11:47 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Blair Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/06/2010
Posts: 171
Loc: Beresfield NSW (18m), During H...
Yes definitely looks like a winters day outside today here in Oberon, temp currently 9.5c, cloud cover here has noticeably increased here within the last hour or so with lots of low level cloud. The clouds are literally 'racing' in the sky today from the strong winds.

Cheers,
Blair

Top
#1202402 - 04/07/2013 16:53 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Looks like its just started snowing all the way down to the Dove Lake carpark in Tas.

http://www.parks.tas.gov.au/index.aspx?base=28485
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1202423 - 04/07/2013 18:38 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1323
Loc: toowoomba
Dave it looks like it's improving so i would'nt be surprised if gets further nth than the models show.As Blizz often says it's almost time to watch this in real time rather than rely on models.

Top
#1202440 - 04/07/2013 20:17 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1792
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
I'm hoping the same Pete. The appearance of a satpic would normally mean something icy on the CTs. Will be interesting to see what the cold air field does. Looks like the Snowys & Vic Alps will get some much needed snow.

Top
#1202476 - 05/07/2013 07:57 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
Sadly, I can't see any signs of strong cold fronts in July (at least up to about the 20th anyway) at this stage.

For the Central Tablelands of NSW, I can pretty much see temps being above average during this time as well. We may get some days around average.

I'm hoping for some strong fronts in late July and into August but that is hope more than confidence. Its been a bit of a shock, to be honest, to see optimal conditions over recent weeks, only to see very little result. It seems that its not so much the southern lattitudes unwilling to produce fronts but the northern lattitudes interfering with such dominant upper winds and temperature advection knocking the head off cold fronts.

For those unfamiliar with the upper charts, just head to the 300hPa charts and 500hPa charts on Weatherzone and have a look at the warm air advection there.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1202478 - 05/07/2013 08:32 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 58
Snow settled above about 1100m at the moment near Perisher, although its patchy down to 950-1000m. Easily 20-30cm of snow higher up. Its not looking bad.

Top
#1202483 - 05/07/2013 09:12 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2855
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Winter wonderland on the Dove Lake cam this morning!
_________________________
My Weather Network

Lane Cove - Dee Why - Wyoming

Top
#1202493 - 05/07/2013 11:59 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Snow to 200m or maybe lower in Tas tonight/tomorrow, all sorts of warnings out down there. A far cry from the mainland!!

Top
#1202495 - 05/07/2013 12:20 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 209
Loc: Newcastle
15-20cm is still pretty good for the NSW resorts, with another 5 or 10cm to come.

Should let them open up some more terrain.

Top
#1202510 - 05/07/2013 15:57 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Andrew Miskelly Offline
Weatherzone Webmaster

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 3149
Loc: Mittagong, NSW
This ACCESS 300hPa wind chart describes the situation reasonably succinctly - Tas is enjoying the influence of the polar jet while the much more ho-hum sub-tropical jet has a firm grip on the mainland.


00Z run, 06Z forecast

Top
#1202518 - 05/07/2013 16:22 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice chart AM smile

Mt Wellington currently -2.6, blowing like a banshee and snowing.

Top
#1202541 - 05/07/2013 22:11 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I'm ready for that horrible wind to be GONE. Figured it was snowing up there today, there was a dark, menacing lot of cloud over the ranges to the SSW, and my goodness it was cold. A few splots of random rain, but I guess it was falling where it was most needed.

Top
#1202554 - 06/07/2013 00:12 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1241
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
man this season has been fairly thin.....I'm waiting to go on a snow hunt just the the dandenongs but seems like this year I may need to wait until next year. frown

Don't really want to head to the big mountains because I don't know a thing about chains hahah typical north queenslander
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1202562 - 06/07/2013 07:54 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
With record warm Sea Surface Temperatures in southern Australia this autumn/winter, its hard for fronts to get far beyond Tassie. Add to that the sub tropical jets influence (related to the IOD?) and you have a setup that doesn't help us.

One consolation we may have is that as the jet stream weakens, there is growing evidence that the amplitude of the loops in the polar jet may lengthen and give sustained cold (and heat) but this does relate more to the NH.

An interesting article on Catalyst this week, well worth reading/watching:


http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3796205.htm
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1202569 - 06/07/2013 08:50 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: Blizzard
With record warm Sea Surface Temperatures in southern Australia this autumn/winter, its hard for fronts to get far beyond Tassie. Add to that the sub tropical jets influence (related to the IOD?) and you have a setup that doesn't help us.

One consolation we may have is that as the jet stream weakens, there is growing evidence that the amplitude of the loops in the polar jet may lengthen and give sustained cold (and heat) but this does relate more to the NH.

An interesting article on Catalyst this week, well worth reading/watching:


http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3796205.htm


Yes I watched that the other night, very interesting and very shocking too. The weather really hangs in the balance between high and low latitude temperature gradients that is measured by the SAM and AO. Disrupt that and you disrupt the jetstreams and the effects of a small warming are huge because its unbalanced.

Our problem in the SH because Antarctica is cut off by cold ocean is that the warming is more in lower latitudes than the far southern. This has the effect of cutting us off from cold fronts forever. While in the NH the warmth and cold spread over the whole hemisphere in more unpredictable ways because the jetstream warps and bends in the huge loops. This is due to the warming high latitudes that weakens the gradient and lets the jetstream loose to make more unpredictable warps.

Then the water cycle is becoming more dynamic and extreme because more water evaporates and more must come down, this also off course cannot be even and makes it either too dry or too wet with more extreme events. And this was proven by the ocean boys (argos) around the world.

Just the events of the short few years of this century alone have more than demonstrated the huge acceleration in the changes in the jetstream and water cycle. That is an astronomically massive acceleration of man made climate change. This is just so beyond any doubt its shocked me.

Blizz, I hope we can get some of those warps in the jetstream in the SH from a weakening gradient, but I am not sure what it will take to happen, perhaps weaker IOD will help like in 2008. But I have to wonder how if the geography of the SH will ever allow this. We really needed the cold fronts disappearing thread for this discussion but that is now considered heresy. Still the 2013 snow season does seem to be a tipping point for the true beginning of the end for Australian snow, I feel there is a line that has been crossed.

Top
#1202580 - 06/07/2013 09:48 Re: 2013 Snow Season [Re: Cheers]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10140
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hobart had 25mm of rain overnight, almost certainly Mt wellington would have had even more which would have all been snow. When it clears it will look fantastic on the rose bay web cam.

Top
Page 27 of 43 < 1 2 ... 25 26 27 28 29 ... 42 43 >


Who's Online
5 registered (LonnyDave, pete28, gberg, Perfect Storm, scott12), 83 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1502900 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image