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#1157677 - 11/01/2013 23:38 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Vinnie]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 9136
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Here are my wild guesses:

South West Rocks (Smoky Cape):
First 20C day: Already reached several times
First 25C: August 20th 2012
First 30C: October 3rd 2012
First 35C: December 9th 2012
First 40C: Will not be reached
Forgot all about this, lol.

Haven't broken 35C yet (in-fact haven't passed 32.2C), none of the hottest days in the region have been able to penetrate the sea breeze here. (First 25C day was Sept 6th. First 30C day was Oct 5th)

The temps on the days of my guesses in above quote were:
August 20th: 20.7C
October 3rd: 24.1C
December 9th: 26.0C
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2014 Rainfall: 14.0mm (Oct Avg. 92.6mm) // October 2014 Raindays: 5 (Oct Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 949.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1250.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 99 (Jan-Oct Avg. 113.2 raindays)
2013: 1746.8mm // 2012: 1429.0mm // 2011: 2008.6mm

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#1157684 - 12/01/2013 00:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: TheAnt]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1397
Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Melbourne
20c- September 30th
25c- October 14th
30c- November 4th
35c- November 29th
40c- 4th January

Way wrong
Way wrong
Way wrong
Spot on
Spot on
While the first three were eh...looking for a very cold spring I did get two of them right grin

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#1168585 - 29/01/2013 00:42 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Nerd65]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 202
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Nerd65
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 20
35 - October 31
40 - Probably won't happen


A temperature of 35 or higher has now occurred at Townsville this summer: a max of 38.0 on 27/1.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1203110 - 11/07/2013 21:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 1330
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here we are in the depths of Winter, although there's not much Wintry stuff happening or on the horizon. So I thought I would revive this thread, get out my crystal ball and look into the warmer months ahead.

I'll make predictions for Sydney, but I won't go for Observatory Hill. Between heat island effects and exposure to marginal seabreezes and weak Southerlies, that site is just too tricky after October. It can fail to reach 30 when the rest of the Metro area is baking in high 30's. On the other hand, Sydney Olympic Park is probably as good a guide as any to what most Sydneysiders experience.

So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

35c - November 15

37.8 (100F) November 30

40c - December 20


Last year, it turned out we needed another milestone, i.e. 45c, But I don't think we'll need it this year.

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#1203153 - 12/07/2013 08:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1419
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Your prediction of first 40 is on my birthday so I'll certainly hope for a 40+ as a nice b'day present. However, my hope is that it doesn't take that long to reach that magic marker.

I note that you seem to mark the summer year the same as the financial year. This is the same method I use playing with my database programs. Easy to search for financial year when toying with tricky SQL statements!

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#1203299 - 13/07/2013 11:41 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 871
Loc: Kingaroy
I don't mind 35 to 40 degree heat as long as it's followed by good storms.

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#1203721 - 16/07/2013 22:39 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
This is easy for Melbourne .
1st 20c 18th July . 21deg actually he he .

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#1203787 - 17/07/2013 12:24 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: apocalypse]
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Originally Posted By: apocalypse
Wagga Wagga:
20C - August 25th
25C - September 16th
30C - October 27th
35C - November 29th
40C - January 4th


Actual (Difference):
20C - August 22nd (-3 days)
25C - September 27th (11 days)
30C - October 19th (-8 days)
35C - November 25th (-4 days)
40C - January 5th (1 day)

Overall I think I did pretty well! grin


Edited by apocalypse (17/07/2013 12:25)
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#1203823 - 17/07/2013 16:01 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3809
Loc: Southern Sydney
With a negative IOD predicted for this spring, you'd think the upcoming warm season would be a little less severe than last year. But here we are in July and still getting record breaking warmth, so...

I will use Canterbury AWS for my predictions, however maxima at my exact location tend to be a little cooler.

25C: August 4 (who knows, could happen tomorrow)
27C/80F: August 20
30C: September 12
32C/90F: September 12 (in other words, the first 30C day will also hit or exceed 32C).
35C: October 15
37.8C: November 29
40C: January 5

I think we will surpass 25, 27, 30, 32 and possibly 35C quite early given the recent warmth, however my gut feel is that we'll have to wait a little longer for serious heat (>100F).

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#1203830 - 17/07/2013 16:32 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 7821
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
For Obs hill i'm going for

25C: September 2nd
30C: September 11th
35C: November 28th
40C: Won't happen

Shall be a colder and wetter spring overall given the current warm spells

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#1203971 - 18/07/2013 08:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 262
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart , considering we have had 5 cold days this Winter so far and today will get to 18 degrees , here we go . LOL

20C sometime before the end of this month
25C next month
30C September
35C October the 15th
40C December Xmas day
45C Australia Day 2014
45C PLUS February the 7th and very possible after last year
eek

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#1206374 - 06/08/2013 08:59 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3809
Loc: Southern Sydney
Obs Hill, Penrith and Richmond have a decent chance of 25C today if the cloud holds off. 925 hPa temps reach 14 deg this afternoon. For other locations though probably just short.

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#1206433 - 06/08/2013 16:09 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: GusO]
GusO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 583
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
My guesses from last year:
Originally Posted By: GusO
Kingaroy:
30C- Sep 21st
35C- Nov 6th
40C- Hasn't happened since 2002, but I recon some time around mid-December, say the 18th.

30C- September 23rd (only two days off!! grin )
35C- December 17th (42 days off)
40C- Didn't happen, closest was 38.0C January 19th

My guesses this year:
25C- August 12th
30C- September 15th
35C- November 20th
37.8C (100 F)- November 27th
40C- Won't happen this summer
_________________________
2013 Rainfall: 990.8mm
2014 Rainfall to date: 353.2mm
Jan: 34.5mm Feb: 2mm Mar: 131.5mm Apr: 71.5mm May: 15.9mm Jun: 37.9mm Jul: 11.8mm Aug: 48.1mm Sep: 3.4mm Oct: 6.8mm

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#1206456 - 06/08/2013 18:34 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 202
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville

20 - Already occurred
25 - Already occurred
30 - September 7
35 - October 15
40 - December 20
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1207930 - 21/08/2013 21:48 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 202
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Townsville reached and exceeded 30C yesterday 20/8. A maximum of 32.8C.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1208046 - 22/08/2013 21:51 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 2031
Loc: Melbourne, Corryong, Merimbula...
Thought I'd have a go for Melbourne, Corryong in Northeast Victoria, and Merimbula on the New South Wales South Coast:

Melbourne:
First 20C+ day (not including the record-breaking 23.3C on July 18th while I was in up north in Cairns and Far North Queensland): August 26th 2013
First 25C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 30C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 35C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 40C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 45C+ day: extremely rare but I'll guess for January 26th 2014 (just hope it doesn't reach or exceed the 46.4C record set on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)


Corryong, Northeast Victoria:
First 20C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 25C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 30C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 35C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 40C+ day: extremely rare (despite Corryong's inland location the town is in an elevated valley sheltered by mountains so it rarely tops 40C in summer, even though the average highs for both January and February are about 31C) but as a guess I'll try for January 6th 2014
First 45C+ day: unlikely (unless we get an extremely fierce, record-shattering heatwave across Victoria and NSW/ACT this summer; the all-time high for Corryong is 43.3C on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)


Merimbula, New South Wales South Coast:
First 20C+ day: already happened on quite a few occasions since July 1st and many more will sure follow, the next 20C+ high is forecast for Merimbula next Wednesday!
First 25C+ day: September 3rd 2013
First 30C+ day: difficult to say, considering that Merimbula's climate is very mild, due in large part to the moderating influence of the Tasman Sea to the east and Bass Strait to the south, as well as the effect of the Great Dividing Range (NSW Snowy Mountains and Southern Tablelands to the west and northwest), but I'll try for October 11th
First 35C+ day: same issues as before with the 30C+ temperatures, but I'll go for November 18th
First 40C+ day: very, very rare but not impossible, January 6th 2014 is my guess
First 45C+ day: unlikely

I was in Merimbula with my fiance and my family last summer when it hit a new all-time high of 44.2C on January 18th 2013 (thank goodness my fiance and I had left Sydney just days before, where it topped 45.8C that same day, also a record), and the heat was FIERCE, only made worse by hot, gusty northwest/northerly winds (it was simply too hot to even go swimming at the beach or in the pool) before a cool change arrived around mid-afternoon with more pleasant temperatures (initially in the 30s but later in the 20s) and showers and thunderstorms nearby. Unfortunately the heat, Outback winds, and cool change fanned a large, destructive bushfire just outside town frown



Not expecting to be correct, this is simply for fun haha smile more than happy to be proven wrong but I'll be very surprised if I'm right for even just one of these dates at any of these locations! lol grin
_________________________
Top storms: 03 (8/1 & 2-3/12); 04 (21/1); 05 (20/1); 06 (26/1 & 23/7); 07 (27/9 & 20/12); 08 (11-12/1 & 27/11); 09 (01/22/09 & 26/11/09); 10 (11/2, 6/3, 4/12 & 8/12/10); 11 (21-22/1, 4-5/2, 28/9/, 9/11 & 24-25/12); 12 (11/1, 16/2, 22/4, & 1/12)

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#1208214 - 25/08/2013 09:44 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: ...TOMMY...]
-Stranger- Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 30
Loc: Hobart, TAS
Hobart, Tasmania
August has been the coldest month of winter here, we had our coldest morning since 2007 recently.

20c - September 11th
25c - September 26th
30c - October 31st
35c - December 23rd
38c - January 2nd
40c - January 20th

Last summer we had our hottest day on record (41.8) it will be interesting to see if we can top that.

Also last summer we had 10 days of 30c or higher, i think normally the average was only 4-5 days.


Edited by -Stranger- (25/08/2013 09:52)

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#1208654 - 30/08/2013 16:37 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 1330
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777

...
here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21
...


Today (August 30) was the first 25 degree day of the season at Sydney Olympic Park, with a max of 28.8. That was over 3 weeks later than I expected. It fell just short on August 12, although several sites around Sydney, including Sydney Airport and Bankstown, reached 25 on that day.

Since my initial prediction on July 11, more than half of all days have reached 20 degrees at Sydney Olympic Park (26 / 50).


Edited by Steve777 (30/08/2013 16:41)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1208659 - 30/08/2013 18:28 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 2031
Loc: Melbourne, Corryong, Merimbula...

Melbourne:
First 20C+ day (not including the record-breaking 23.3C on July 18th while I was in up north in Cairns and Far North Queensland): August 26th 2013
First 25C+ day: September 13th 2013
First 30C+ day: October 10th 2013
First 35C+ day: November 17th 2013
First 40C+ day: December 12th 2013
First 45C+ day: extremely rare but I'll guess for January 26th 2014 (just hope it doesn't reach or exceed the 46.4C record set on February 7th 2009 aka Black Saturday)

Let's see, the first 20C+ day for Melbourne (not including July 18th) was very, very close, only 24 hours later than I expected! It was actually August 27th (20.6C in the CBD, 21.2C at my house), not bad! smile

The first 25C+ day looks set for Father's Day (Sunday September 1st), but I cannot help wondering whether it'll reach that threshold tomorrow instead? Hmmm, just have to wait and see... smile
_________________________
Top storms: 03 (8/1 & 2-3/12); 04 (21/1); 05 (20/1); 06 (26/1 & 23/7); 07 (27/9 & 20/12); 08 (11-12/1 & 27/11); 09 (01/22/09 & 26/11/09); 10 (11/2, 6/3, 4/12 & 8/12/10); 11 (21-22/1, 4-5/2, 28/9/, 9/11 & 24-25/12); 12 (11/1, 16/2, 22/4, & 1/12)

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#1209423 - 07/09/2013 13:09 Re: Predict/guess the dates that you think certaint temps will be reached. [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 1330
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Steve777

...
So, based upon some local knowledge, gut feel, guesswork, expectation of a warm winter and warm early Spring, but not much expertise, here are my predictions for Sydney Olympic Park:

Code:
20c - not an issue in Sydney - already reached July 4. 
      Expect about 5 more times in July and 10+ times in
      August.

25c - August 6 - Spring seems to start in August these days.

30c - September 21

32.2 (90F) - October 8

....


It is now 30.8 at Sydney Olympic Park, so the 30 degree milestone was reached two weeks earlier than my prognostication. It even got to 30.5 at Observatory Hill, so that's one more 30+ day at that site for September (so far) than for all of February.

It may yet reach 32.2 at Olympic Park, although a sea breeze is now working it's way through Sydney (or perhaps a weak Summer-style SE change).

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