Page 1 of 24 1 2 3 ... 23 24 >
Topic Options
#1203312 - 13/07/2013 12:58 SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
They say a picture paints a thousand words!




Top
#1203351 - 13/07/2013 21:54 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7169
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
After looking at the 500-1000 mb thickness forecast, etc. (GFS), appears this system could be nasty.

Top
#1203422 - 14/07/2013 16:58 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: Seira]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Looks like an exact carbon copy of the windstorm we had in June 2011

Top
#1203587 - 16/07/2013 09:06 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Looks all on target with deep cold airmass and low now moving up towards SWWA rapidly, then likely to deepen in bight tommorow.
Very good cold air field likely, gales likely, heavy showers, storms and hail likely. SE jet exit over us, nice polar and sub tropical jet combination...lacking much NW cloud-moisture, but likely to pick up a little and local surface moisture to work with. Rainfalls are likely to be quite variable with coastal and range topography playing a big part, but local hills falls would be expected to be high 50 to 80mm PLUS, 20 to 40 to 50mm elsewhere likely, less in upper north and north EP, and Mallee where more 15 to 25mm likely imo.

Top
#1203601 - 16/07/2013 10:24 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ANGRE7 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2011
Posts: 222
Loc: Craigmore
so we talking photogenic weather or to wet/windy/nasty?

Top
#1203631 - 16/07/2013 14:33 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Naththo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/09/2001
Posts: 1474
Loc: West Lakes (Adelaide western s...
Yeah looks nasty indeed ahead for us. Gonna hatch it down surely!

Top
#1203647 - 16/07/2013 15:53 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
00z GFS has downgraded for Friday and weekend
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1203648 - 16/07/2013 15:53 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
But looks good before that
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1203666 - 16/07/2013 17:16 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
EC looks very strong still, slips away SE but strong secondary development up the back and continued unstable southerlies bode well for extended showery days after initial gales and likely damaging squalls and heavy rains in hills especially and decent rains eleswhere to boot!






Edited by bd bucketingdown (16/07/2013 17:16)

Top
#1203667 - 16/07/2013 17:22 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Ones things for sure the SE will get another spanking so keep an ear out for possible dare i say it 'tornado' damage down this way if its going to be as bad as everyone says it will be

Top
#1203682 - 16/07/2013 19:16 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
A quick look at things and I don't hold much for the initial rainband to give very good totals, prob 4-8mm for Adelaide and surrounds, isol 10-15mm but not much more than that. Most of the rain from this system will come on thursday evening till saturday evening I would think in the moist sw stream. Certain though some decent wind ahead and on the top of the low before things swing SW. It doesn't look as savage as it did a couple of days ago but I'd expect gusts in the wind hotspots such as Neptune Island for example to crack 58-60knots.

TS cool

Top
#1203689 - 16/07/2013 19:54 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17524
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
hrmmm.... I reckon a bit better than that from initial rainband. I'll suggest 10-15mm in most city areas. Higher totals further west esp. EP.
Won't get much at all thursday, could well be into the early hrs of Friday before we start seeing some decent shower activity from the SW.
Saturday looks to be the coldest of the days. Could be quite frigid with the 528 line getting up close, and a decent southerly stream by the looks with hail... but no, I don't think conditions will be quite conducive to snow.
EC actually has another burst of showers come up from the south late on Saturday. By Monday I think another 20mm to add to the initial rainfall would be about right. SO I'll go for about 30-35mm for me in total for system.

Top
#1203692 - 16/07/2013 20:15 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Naththo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/09/2001
Posts: 1474
Loc: West Lakes (Adelaide western s...
Yeah looks like a decent system to me either Tim. So I agreed with Ian as well. Friday Night to Sat morning is my favourite one coming looks stormy possible with coldies.

Top
#1203695 - 16/07/2013 20:47 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: Naththo]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Im going to be tying down my garden shed tomorrow as the BSCH windspeed/streamline at 850 shows that the nasty stuff will be smack bang over the LSE between 10pm tomorrow night and 4 am Thursday morning

Top
#1203701 - 16/07/2013 21:11 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1632
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Disappointing there is not a strong rainband with this system as I don't get much from showers usually and with below average for the month and year and only 2/3rds of the rain to the same point last year I need every system to deliver something useful though this one doesn't look that good for here.
_________________________
YTD-74mm AVE-260mm

Top
#1203704 - 16/07/2013 21:16 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17524
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer Roves, I'd suggest 4-7mm for you from the rain band and nothing afterwards.

Top
#1203734 - 16/07/2013 23:58 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
SUPER CELL Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2007
Posts: 944
Loc: ALBERT PARK
My prediction is rainband to hit Lincoln by 1.30-2pm and with it rapidly filling into Adelaide by sundown (5ish) wink
_________________________
**feel free to head on over to South Australian Weather facebook page http://www.facebook.com/SouthAustralianWeather **

Top
#1203744 - 17/07/2013 04:50 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
415am The current four-day BOM state forecast includes references to possible thunderstorms and possible hail:
For Thursday: "Possible thunderstorms in the south"
For Friday: "Possible small hail with heavier showers in the south"
For Saturday: "Possible morning thunderstorms with small hail, mainly about southern agricultural areas"
With south-west to southerly winds forecast for both Friday and Saturday I'm thinking particularly Friday night and Saturday morning there's a realistic chance of snow showers on the summit of Mt Lofty and maybe locally elsewhere on the highest ground.
Are your camera batteries fully charged? Lenses cleaned? Enough clothing out of storage for several hours in a temp around zero and a bracing windchill? A good hat for snow weather ready Markus poke

Top
#1203752 - 17/07/2013 08:18 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
ANGRE7 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2011
Posts: 222
Loc: Craigmore
pretty sure ive spotted some mammatus clouds this morning. smile

Top
#1203760 - 17/07/2013 09:37 Re: SA - strong low pressure & Cold blast - 17th-22nd July 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yes some nice mammatus about in the large chunks of Ac/As floating about, fairly high up atm. Nice sunrise too.

System steadily approaching, with a good old fashioned frontal band of rain to cross over us tonight. Should be about 4-5hours wide in terms of rain itself so I'll go for about 5-10mm from it generally with still only isol 10-15mm falls. I'll give my place about 8mm from the rainband atm... N to NW winds to freshen and become strong and then gale force over the coastal areas overnight and into tomrorow.

As the rainband clears there should be a general dry slot for a while before the winds turn more west to SW later tomorrow allowing showers to gradually increase again after a fairly dry although windy day. Winds should still be fresh to strong mostly though probably not gale force over the land, but possibly exposed coastal locations. The low doesn't quite squeeze and slam us as it looked like doing a day or so ago. But still quite windy and we should still see gusts up to 45 or so knots.

Friday maintains the onshores in a blustery SW flow with scattered showers, but a cold pool pivots up later and increases instability overnight and into saturday with convergent spokes setting up so could well see a very wet day on saturday with the best chance of small hail and thunder from the very early hours or even friday evening.

Things gradually ease into sunday and monday but still onshore southerlies to keep totals trickling over, another very solid system in the end. Just a lack of penetration for inland areas this time, however the intial rainband should provide up to 5mm or so for Riverland areas, but hopefully a bit more.

Some hills areas will easily see 70-80mm come monday next week, even areas in the western/nw Mid North/s flinders could see that such as Melrose for example.

TS cool

Top
Page 1 of 24 1 2 3 ... 23 24 >


Moderator:  Helen, Lindsay Knowles, Markus, teckert 
Who's Online
6 registered (jgcertified, Skysthelimit, Ronfishes, Wave Rider, Dr Philosophy, dknever), 352 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
avalon, philiphart, Ravenous2411, Sasho
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23735 Topics
1469527 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image