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#1205882 - 01/08/2013 05:48 Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Welcome to the 2013/2014 Annual Tropics Competition!!

So exactly what is the Tropics Competition??? For anyone new......the Tropics Competition is an annual event whereby everyone is invited to have a go at forecasting (basically guesstimating) a bunch of pre-determined questions associated with the upcoming North Australian Wet Season. Then as the season unfolds and results to various categories become known, each contestant will be awarded points based on how accurate their forecast was. At the end of the Wet Season when results from all categories are revealed, points earned by each contestant will be accumulated to determine the overall Tropics Competition winner.

To enter the competition, all you have to do is post your list of answers for each of the following categories:

1. The date the first rainfall (of 1mm+) falls at Port Hedland
2. The date the first thunderstorm is recorded in Darwin
3. The date the temperature first reaches 40°C at Marble Bar
4. The date the first Australian-named Tropical Cyclone forms
5. The region the first Australian-named Tropical Cyclone forms in
• Eastern
• Northern
• Western
• Far Western
(Click Here for a Map Outlining Each Region)
6. The lowest pressure attained by the first Australian named cyclone
7. The date Townsville records its first 50mm+ daily rainfall total
8. The date the monsoon arrives to the Australian mainland
9. The date the first land-falling Tropical Cyclone crosses the Australian mainland
10. The location the first land-falling Tropical Cyclone crosses the Australian mainland
11. The Severity Category (1-5) of the above cyclone as it makes landfall
12. The Southern Oscillation Index (S.O.I.) figure average over the 6 months of Spring & Summer
13. The highest maximum temperature recorded at Broome
14. The total number of Tropical Cyclones that occur within Australian waters this season
15. The total number of land-falling Tropical Cyclones this season
16. The name of the season’s most intense Australian-named Tropical Cyclone (Click Here for List)
17. The total rainfall recorded in Mackay this Wet Season (October – April)
18. The number of 25mm+ daily rainfall totals recorded at Cairns
19. From the list below, select the location that will record the highest daily rainfall total: (Click Here for a Map of Locations)
• Broome
• Cairns
• Darwin
• Gove
• Karratha
• Mackay
• Mornington Island
• Port Hedland
• Rockhampton
• Townsville
• Weipa
• Wyndham
20. The highest daily rainfall total (mm) recorded at the location you selected

(Results of all above listed categories are based on events that take place between 1st September 2013 & 30th April 2014 unless stated otherwise)

And if you’re not sure, or need a few tips, here are the winning answers based on occurrences during the 2012/2013 Wet Season:

1. Port Hedland Rainfall: November 13th
2. Darwin Storm: September 30th
3. Marble Bar 40°C: October 6th
4. First Cyclone: December 29th
5. Region Forms: Western
6. Lowest Pressure: 990hPa
7. Townsville 50mm: January 23rd
8. Monsoon Arrival: January 18th
9. First Landfall: January 22nd
10. Landfall Location: Near Kowanyama, Qld
11. Category at Landfall: Category 1
12. Southern Oscillation Index: –0.28
13. Broome Temp: 43.0°C
14. Total Cyclones: 10
15. Cyclone Landfalls: 3
16. Most Intense Cyclone: Narelle
17. Mackay Rainfall: 1737.2mm
18. Cairns 25mm+: 5 Days
19. Wettest Location: Weipa
20. Daily Rainfall: 356.0mm

Absolutely everyone is welcome to take part in the competition, no matter how little your meteorological knowledge or how bad you think your forecasting may be. It’s all about getting involved and having a go! So grab a drink, jot down some answers and be part of the fun!

Once again Weatherzone will be kindly donating 12 months FREE subscription to Weatherzone Pro for the Top 3 overall contestants!

Entries close strictly at 11:59pm AEST on 31st August 2013. Under no exceptions will late entries be accepted.
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#1205883 - 01/08/2013 05:49 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
And for those of you wanting to check out the competition rules, regulations and scoring system, feel free to click the link below:

Click to reveal..
Scoring System for the 2013/2014 Tropics Competition:
As mentioned previously, once the result of each category becomes known, contestants will be awarded points based on their forecast performance. The exact number of points a contestant is allocated (if any) will depend by how close their forecast was to the correct answer. The closer to the correct answer, the more points the contestant is awarded. Note that the scoring intervals will vary between individual categories to provide a reasonable scoring range relevant to the likelihood of that particular category occurring. Also note that no points are deducted for an incorrect guess. The overall winner is the contestant that accumulates the highest score at the end of the competition.

1) First Port Hedland Rainfall:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 2 Days
7 Points – Within 4 Days
6 Points – Within 7 Days
5 Points – Within 10 Days
4 Points – Within 20 Days
3 Points – Within 30 Days
2 Points – Within 40 Days
1 Point – Within 50 Days

2) First Darwin Storm:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 2 Days
6 Points – Within 3 Days
5 Points – Within 5 Days
4 Points – Within 7 Days
3 Points – Within 10 Days
2 Points – Within 15 Days
1 Point – Within 20 Days

3) First Marble Bar 40°C Temperature:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 2 Days
6 Points – Within 3 Days
5 Points – Within 5 Days
4 Points – Within 7 Days
3 Points – Within 10 Days
2 Points – Within 15 Days
1 Point – Within 20 Days

4) Date First Australian Cyclone Forms:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 3 Days
6 Points – Within 5 Days
5 Points – Within 10 Days
4 Points – Within 15 Days
3 Points – Within 20 Days
2 Points – Within 30 Days
1 Point – Within 40 Days

5) Region First Cyclone Forms In:
5 Points – Correct Answer
2 Points – Selecting the second different region a cyclone forms within
1 Point – Selecting the third different region a cyclone forms within

6) The Lowest Pressure of First Cyclone:
5 Points – Within 5 hPa
4 Points – Within 10 hPa
3 Points – Within 15 hPa
2 Points – Within 20 hPa
1 Point – Within 30 hPa

7) Townsville’s First 50mm Daily Rainfall Total:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 2 Days
7 Points – Within 4 Days
6 Points – Within 7 Days
5 Points – Within 10 Days
4 Points – Within 20 Days
3 Points – Within 30 Days
2 Points – Within 40 Days
1 Point – Within 50 Days

8) Date the Monsoon Arrives:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 2 Days
6 Points – Within 3 Days
5 Points – Within 5 Days
4 Points – Within 7 Days
3 Points – Within 10 Days
2 Points – Within 15 Days
1 Point – Within 20 Days

9) First Cyclone Landfall:
10 Points – Exact Date
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 3 Days
6 Points – Within 5 Days
5 Points – Within 7 Days
4 Points – Within 10 Days
3 Points – Within 15 Days
2 Points – Within 20 Days
1 Point – Within 30 Days

10) Landfall Location:
10 Points – Within 100km
8 Points – Within 200km
7 Points – Within 300km
6 Points – Within 400km
5 Points – Within 600km
4 Points – Within 800km
3 Points – Within 1000km
2 Points – Within 1250km
1 Point – Within 1500km

11) Category at Landfall:
5 Points – Correct Answer
2 Points – Incorrect answer, however category forecasted correlates with cyclone being deemed severe or non severe

12)Southern Oscillation Index
10 Points – Within 0.5
8 Points – Within 1.0
7 Points – Within 2.0
6 Points – Within 3.0
5 Points – Within 4.0
4 Points – Within 5.0
3 Points – Within 6.0
2 Points – Within 8.0
1 Point – Within 10.0

13) Highest Broome Temperature:
10 Points – Exact Temperature
8 Points – Within 0.1 ºC
7 Points – Within 0.3 ºC
6 Points – Within 0.5 ºC
5 Points – Within 0.7 ºC
4 Points – Within 1.0 ºC
3 Points – Within 1.5 ºC
2 Points – Within 2.0 ºC
1 Point – Within 2.5 ºC

14) Number of Cyclones:
10 Points – Exact Number
6 Points – Within 1 Cyclone
4 Points – Within 2 Cyclones
2 Points – Within 3 Cyclones
1 Point – Within 4 Cyclones

15) Number of Landfalls:
10 Points – Exact Number
6 Points – Within 1 Landfall
4 Points – Within 2 Landfalls
2 Points – Within 3 Landfalls
1 Point – Within 4 Landfalls

16) Season’s Most Intense Cyclone:
Highest Category achieved by Cyclone selected by contestant:
5 Points – Category 5
4 Points – Category 4
3 Points – Category 3
2 Points – Category 2
0 Points – Category 1
Contestants will also be awarded points if the cyclone they selected makes landfall
Category at Landfall:
5 Points – Category 5
4 Points – Category 4
3 Points – Category 3
2 Points – Category 2
1 Point – Category 1
Note:
• A minimum 10 points will be awarded to the season’s most intense cyclone only if above accumulations fail to reach a double digit score.
• A maximum accumulation limit of 15 points will be set for all cyclones regardless of severity and number of coastal crossings (though such occurrences are rare)


17) Mackay Wet Season Rainfall:
10 Points – Within 25mm
8 Points – Within 50mm
7 Points – Within 100mm
6 Points – Within 150mm
5 Points – Within 200mm
4 Points – Within 300mm
3 Points – Within 400mm
2 Points – Within 500mm
1 Point – Within 600mm

18) Cairns 25mm+ Days:
10 Points – Exact Number
8 Points – Within 1 Day
7 Points – Within 2 Days
6 Points – Within 3 Days
5 Points – Within 4 Days
4 Points – Within 6 Days
3 Points – Within 8 Days
2 Points – Within 10 Days
1 Point – Within 15 Days

19) Wettest Location:
10 Points – Correct Answer
6 Points – If location selected records second highest daily total
4 Points – If location selected records third highest daily total
2 Points – If location selected records forth highest daily total
1 Point – If location selected records fifth highest daily total

20) Daily Rainfall:
10 Points – Within 5mm
8 Points – Within 10mm
7 Points – Within 20mm
6 Points – Within 30mm
5 Points – Within 40mm
4 Points – Within 50mm
3 Points – Within 75mm
2 Points – Within 100mm
1 Point – Within 150mm


Error Points and Average Error Rate:
Throughout the competition, contestants will also accumulate ‘error points’. Error points will be allocated to a contestant for each incorrect answer. The amount of error points allocated to a contestant depends on the inaccuracy of the contestant’s forecast. The less accurate, the more error points will be allocated. If a contestant’s answer is correct, no error points are allocated for that particular category. At the end of the competition each contestant’s error points from all categories will be combined and then divided by the total number of categories they participated in to calculate their overall ‘Average Error Rate’. Note the sole purpose of the ‘Average Error Rate’ is to separate contestants on the leader board that have accumulated identical scores.

Below is the list that will be used to determine how many error points a contestant will be allocated for each incorrect answer:

1) Port Hedland Rainfall: Half (0.5) an error point will be allocated for each day of inaccuracy.
2) Darwin Storm: 1 error point allocated for each day of inaccuracy
3) Marble Bar 40°C: 1 error point allocated for each day of inaccuracy
4) Date First Cyclone Forms: 1 error point allocated for each day of inaccuracy
5) Area Cyclone Forms in:
• 0 error points allocated for selecting the correct region the first cyclone forms
• 10 error points allocated for selecting second different region a cyclone forms
• 20 error points allocated for selecting third different region a cyclone forms
• 30 error points allocated for selecting last region a cyclone forms or if region selected produces no cyclones throughout season
6) Lowest Pressure: 1 error point allocated for each hPa inaccuracy
7) Townsville 50mm: Half (0.5) an error point will be allocated for each day of inaccuracy.
8) Monsoon Arrives: 1 error point allocated for each day of inaccuracy
9) Date First Landfall: 1 error point allocated for each day of inaccuracy
10) Landfall Location: The contestant’s miscalculation will be rounded to nearest 50km*, with 1 error point being allocated for every 50kms inaccuracy
11) Category at Landfall: 30 error points will be allocated for an incorrect forecast, however if a contestant’s incorrect forecast aligns with the cyclone being deemed severe or non severe, only 15 error points will be allocated
12) Spring/Summer S.O.I.: The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 0.2 figure, with 1 error point being allocated for every 0.2 increment
13) Broome Temperature: 1 error point will be allocated for each decimal degree inaccuracy
14) Number of Cyclones: 5 error points allocated for each cyclone inaccuracy
15) Cyclone Landfalls: 5 error points allocated for each landfall inaccuracy
16) Most Intense Cyclone:
• 30 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to attain severe status and fail to make landfall
• 20 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to attain severe status but make landfall
• 15 error points allocated for cyclones that fail to make landfall but attain severe status
• 10 error points allocated for cyclones that attain severe status and make landfall, but are not the season’s most intense cyclone
• 0 error points allocated for selecting the season’s most intense cyclone regardless of it making landfall or not
17) Mackay Rainfall: The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 25mm with 1 error point being allocated for each 25mm increment
18) Cairns 25mm+ Days: 3 error points allocated for each day of inaccuracy
19) Wettest Location:
• 0 error points for selecting wettest location
• 5 error points for selecting second wettest location
• 10 error points for selecting third wettest location
• 15 error points for selecting fourth wettest location
• 20 error points for selecting fifth wettest location
• 30 error points for selecting all remaining locations
20) Daily Rainfall: The contestant’s inaccuracy will be rounded to the nearest 5mms, with 1 Error Point being allocated for every 5mm increment

* The distance of inaccuracy will be measured in a straight line (as the crow flies) from the location the centre of the cyclone made landfall to the location forecasted by the contestant. If the location submitted by the contestant is not specific enough, the measurement will be taken from a rough central point within the region the contestant has specified.


How The Answers Will Be Decided:
The correct answer for each category will be based on the following criteria (Number corresponds to Category):
1. Port Hedland Rainfall: The date the first rainfall (of 1.0mm or more) is recorded at the Port Hedland Airport (Site # 004032). Winning day will be the date the rain commenced falling (of 0.2mm or more), rather than recorded against due to the 9am carry over.
2. Darwin Storm: The date that the first thunderstorm is recorded at the Darwin Airport M.O.*¹ (Site #014015).
3. Marble Bar 40ºC: The date the temperature first reaches or exceeds 40.0ºC at Marble Bar (Site # 004106). If the temperature fails to reach 40.0ºC throughout the entire season, the answer will be based on the date of the highest temperature recorded at the site between September 1st and April 30th.
4. First Australian Cyclone: The date that the first Australian named Tropical Cyclone forms within Australia’s ‘area of responsibility’ verified by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)*¹ If the first cyclone is later found to have never reached cyclone status as a result of a post analysis, it will not be eligible for this category. However, if a Tropical Low that was never named is deemed to have achieved cyclone status as a result of a post analysis, it will be eligible for this category. Tropical Cyclones named by international warning centres that travel into Australia’s ‘area of responsibility’ will not be eligible for this category.
5. Co-ordinates provided by the BoM will be used to determine which region the centre of the cyclone was located within when first deemed to have reached cyclone status.
6. Lowest Pressure: The lowest pressure achieved during the lifetime of the above mentioned cyclone as stated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Please be aware this figure is generally the BoM’s best estimate).
7. Townsville 50mm: The date a daily rainfall total at the Townsville Airport M.O. (Site # 32040) is first recorded as reaching or exceeding 50.0mm*² (Bearing in mind that any rain that falls after 9am is always added to the next day’s total). In the unlikely occurrence whereby at the end of the season all daily totals failed to reach 50.0mm, not only will the Weatherzone members in Townsville be severely disappointed, but the date selected for the answer will be based on the highest daily rainfall total recorded between September 1st and April 30th.
8. Monsoon Arrival: Deemed present once a deep Monsoonal flow (with a westerly wind component) has been established over the Northern Australian mainland between the surface and at least 500hPa supported by extensive deep convection evident on satellite imagery.
9. Date of First Landfall: The date the first land-falling tropical cyclone (regardless of Area of Formation) makes its initial landfall on the Australian mainland (islands not included) as verified by the BoM.*¹ The cyclone must also make landfall as a category 1 or higher system while crossing the coastline; i.e. cyclones that make landfall as a ‘Tropical Low’ are not included in this category. If a post analysis finds that a ‘Tropical Low’ which was never officially named had actually achieved Tropical Cyclone status while making landfall, it will be eligible for this category. If no cyclones make landfall during the season, the answer used will be the date a cyclone made the closest approach to the Australian mainland. Due to the format of the competition, it is possible (though unlikely) for the date of the first land-falling cyclone to be earlier than date the first Australian named cyclone forms.
10. Location of First Landfall: The location the eye/centre of the above mentioned cyclone first makes landfall on the Australian mainland as verified by the Bureau of Meteorology with the aid of satellite and radar imagery (if available) for precise crossing details. If no cyclones make landfall during the entire season, the location selected will be an over-ocean position where the centre of the above mention cyclone was located while at its closest proximity to the Australian mainland.
11. Category at Landfall: The severity category (verified by the BoM) the first land-falling tropical cyclone is rated while making its initial landfall on Australian mainland.
12. 6 Month S.O.I.: This figure will be the average S.O.I. for the 6 months of Spring and Summer combined using data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology’s Southern Oscillation Index monthly summary table (Found Here), which is based on means and standard deviations calculated over the period of 1933 to 1992.
13. Highest Broome Temperature: The highest temperature recorded at the Broome Airport (Site #003003) between September 1st and April 30th.
14. Total Number of Cyclones: The total number of Tropical Cyclones that both form within Australia’s ‘area of responsibility’, and those named by international warning centres that travel into Australia’s ‘area of responsibility’ between September 1st and April 30th.*¹ Cyclones later deemed to have never reached cyclone status during a post analysis will not be included in the overall total, however Tropical Lows later deemed cyclonic will. Cyclones that weaken into tropical lows and later redevelop into tropical cyclones will only account as 1 cyclone.
15. Total land-falling Cyclones: The total number of Tropical Cyclone mainland landfalls (islands not included) that take place between September 1st and April 30th*¹. For cyclones to be eligible for this category, they must make landfall as a category 1 or higher system i.e. Cyclones that make landfall as Tropical Lows are not included in the overall total, however if during a post analysis a Tropical Low is found to have made landfall as a Tropical Cyclone, it will be included in the overall total. Also, because a single cyclone is capable of making more than one landfall, if this occurs all landfalls will be added to the overall total. However, ‘dillydallying land-falling cyclones’ i.e. Cyclones that make several landfalls in a small area due to weak steering influences and cyclones that track parallel to the mainland whereby the eye ‘brushes’ jagged parts of coastline (rather than making a convincing landfall) will only account for 1 landfall unless there is sufficient evidence to suggest otherwise.
16. Most Intense Cyclone: Determined by the Australian named cyclone that achieves the strongest wind gusts (as stated by the Bureau of Meteorology) whilst within Australia’s ‘Area of Responsibility’ between September 1st and April 30th. If two cyclones are deemed to have equal highest intensities, the cyclone with the larger radius of maximum winds will rank highest. Internationally named cyclones are not eligible for this category. If an upcoming name is skipped during the season (reasons being because it was deemed inappropriate at the time or to avoid confusion will another cyclone that has a similar name), to be fair, contestants that had selected that name will be automatically allocated the very next name on the list. Information provided by the BoM will be used to determine a cyclone’s maximum severity category and the severity category at landfall (if applicable) when crossing the Australian mainland (islands not included). If a cyclone makes more than one landfall, points will be allocated for each occasion this takes place. (Example: Cyclone Monica in 2006 was the season’s most intense cyclone at category 5, which also happened to make landfall twice, once in Qld as a category 3 system, and also in the N.T. as a category 5. Therefore a contestant that had of selected this cyclone would have been awarded a total of 15 points….. 5 Points for it achieving category 5 severity, 2 points for it also being the season’s most intense cyclone, 3 points for making landfall as a category 3 system in Qld, and another 5 points for making landfall as a category 5 system in the N.T.) A maximum limit of 15 points will be allocated to contestants for this category regardless of how many severe coastal impact a particular cyclone may achieve. Although such instances are extremely rare.
17. Mackay Rainfall: Based on the total rainfall recorded at the Mackay Meteorological Office located at Mt Bassett ( Site #033119) during the wet season months (October to April).*²
18. Cairns 25mm+ Days: The total number of days the Cairns Meteorological Office located at the Airport (Site # 31011) records daily totals above 25mm. *²
19. Location with Highest Daily Rainfall: Determined by the location that records the highest daily rainfall total between September 1st and April 30th *². Measurements for each location will be taken from the following Bureau of Meteorology sites: Karratha Aero (Site #004083), Port Hedland Airport (Site #004032), Broome Airport (Site #003003), Wyndham (Site # 001013), Darwin Airport (Site #014015), Gove Airport (Site #014508), Mornington Island (Site #029039), Weipa Aero (Site #027045), Cairns Aero (Site #031011), Townsville Aero (Site #032040), Mackay M.O. (Site #033119), Rockhampton Aero (Site #039083).
20. Daily Rainfall Total: Based on the highest daily rainfall total recorded at the site that claims victory in the above listed category.*²

*¹ Due to some categories having the remote possibility of occurring near midnight where the potential situation arises that WA, the NT, or Qld are on separate dates as a result of time zones; the date selected for the answer will be based on Local Time relevant to the corresponding region the event took place.

*² The rainfall totals used to calculate competition results will be the official ‘quality controlled’ figures recorded in the site’s manually-read standard rain gauge and not the site's automatic gauge (Karratha Aero and Mornington Island are the only exception to this rule as they have no manual gauge). Please be aware that the rainfall totals displayed on the BoM’s observation page are initially the amount recorded at the site’s automatic gauge before being updated with the official figures usually within 1 month (by a total that is often very similar).

Other Factors Influencing the Outcome of the Competition:
a) If a contestant provides more than one answer for any category, they must specify which answer is to be used for the competition, otherwise only the first answer provided will be used when tallying the results.
b) If a contestant wishes to alter their already submitted forecast, they may do so only up until the date entries close.
c) The outcome of all categories are based on occurrences between September 1st, and April 30th unless stated otherwise. Any occurrences relevant to a category that take place either before or after this period are excluded from the competition tally/results.
d) Because the results of some categories are subject to change with the receipt of later information, for competition purposes the final answers to all categories will be based on the latest information available in May 2014.
e) If for any reason data from a specified site is unavailable on a day that had the potential to influence the competition result, data for that day will be sourced from the next nearest official Bureau of Meteorology site.
f) Results to all categories will be decided based on the above mentioned criteria. Even after this process if any results are still dubious or disputed, the final ruling will be made by the competition judge (Wet Wet Wet).
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#1205885 - 01/08/2013 06:14 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Firepac Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 1179
Loc: Proserpine
Wow, that has come around quickly!! Looking forward to getting my entries in shortly and a huge thanks for running it once more WWW.

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#1205889 - 01/08/2013 07:45 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Willow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 857
Loc: Whitsunday
1. Oct 12
2. Sep 12
3. Oct 1
4. Dec20
5. Northern
6. 980Hpa
7. Dec 18
8. Dec 20
9. Jan 1
10. Groote Eylandt
11. Cat 2
12. +2
13. 44
14. 9
15. 4
16. Edna
17. 1670
18. 8
19. Weipa
20. 299
Good luck to everyone. Thanks WWW.
_________________________


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#1205903 - 01/08/2013 09:14 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Moonstruck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Posts: 755
I've just spent way too long procrastinating over this. So here we go again. Good Luck Everyone!!

1. 29 October
2. 7th November
3. 6th October
4. 22 January
5. Eastern
6. 989hpa
7. 8th February
8. 9th January
9. 11th February
10. Mitchell Falls
11. Cat 1
12. +3.4
13. 39.3
14. 8
15. 3
16. Fletcher
17. 1987mm
18. 12 days
19. Wyndham
20. 237mm


Edited by Wettish (01/08/2013 09:15)
_________________________
W


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#1205911 - 01/08/2013 10:27 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Thanks again WWW, good luck everyone grin

1: Nov 1st
2: Sept 20th
3: 30th Sept
4: Jan 1st
5: Northern
6: 996hPa
7: Jan 28th
8: Jan 25th
9: Jan 3rd
10: Swipes Darwin
11: 2
12: +7
13: 44C
14: 11
15: 4
16: Ita
17: 1300mm
18: 8
19: Weipa
20: 270mm

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#1205912 - 01/08/2013 10:29 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Jesus I better get to it! Ill submit mine tonight WWW

Top stuff bro
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1205913 - 01/08/2013 10:50 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 943
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
1. November 18th
2. September 16th
3. October 2nd
4. December 21st
5. Far Western
6. 990hpa
7. December 20th
8. January 15th
9. January 3rd
10. Karumba, Qld
11. Category 2
12. +2.4
13. 43.3
14. 9
15. 4
16. Edna
17. 1645mm
18. 21 days
19. Cairns
20. 275mm
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1205918 - 01/08/2013 11:11 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1271
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
1. November 2nd
2. September 23rd
3. Novenber 12th
4. December 30th
5. Western
6. 987hpa
7. December 12th
8. January 20th
9. January 5th
10. Exmouth
11. 2
12. +3.1
13. 46.7
14. 8
15. 3
16. Bruce
17. 1587mm
18. 16
19. Gove
20. 452mm

Can not wait for the storm/wet season to begin. My outlook though seems a little bleak.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1205919 - 01/08/2013 11:20 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
1. October 29
2. September 28
3. October 10
4. December 25
5. Eastern
6. 977Hpa
7. December 29
8. January 18
9. January 23
10. Pardoo, WA
11. 3
12. +0.03
13. 44.1C
14. 6
15. 3
16. Christine
17. 1839.60mm
18. 9
19. Townsville
20. 180mm
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1205926 - 01/08/2013 11:38 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1470
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
On time this time !

1.November 8th
2.October 10th
3.September 30th
4.December 20th
5.Far Western
6.985Hpa
7.December 27th
8.January 10th
9.January 12th
10.Karatha WA
11.Cat 3
12.+0.01
13. 44
14. 9
15. 4
16. Fletcher
17.1931mm
18. 15
19. Weipa
20. 297mm

Good luck everyone, may the best of you come SECOND! LOL.

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#1205931 - 01/08/2013 11:56 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Hmmm contemplating just ripping off TSVweathernerds predictions from last year :-P

I didn't recall seeing a copyright on them anywhere.


Edited by Locke (01/08/2013 11:56)
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1205932 - 01/08/2013 11:58 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Or I could just copy all the correct answers from last year that WWW so kidly posted.

I mean its not as if the answers could change this year could they?
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1205936 - 01/08/2013 12:34 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 943
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
1. November 18th
2. September 16th
3. October 2nd
4. December 21st
5. Far Western
6. 990hpa
7. December 20th
8. January 15th
9. January 3rd
10. Karumba, Qld
11. Category 2
12. +2.4
13. 43.3
14. 9
15. 4
16. Edna
17. 1645mm
18. 21 days
19. Cairns
20. 275mm


Copyright 2013 All Rights Reserved.

(BTW...copy if you want to, but I figure even if these picks won (which I seriously doubt), I would win because I got it in first).
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1205937 - 01/08/2013 12:35 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Locke]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 943
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Originally Posted By: Locke
Or I could just copy all the correct answers from last year that WWW so kidly posted.

I mean its not as if the answers could change this year could they?


So true. Every year is the same, right? poke
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1205939 - 01/08/2013 12:54 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
1. October 10
2. September 19
3. October 12
4. December 15
5. Northern
6. 985hPa
7. November 17
8. December 17
9. December 19
10. Kuri Bay
11. Cat 2
12. +12
13. 43.4C
14. 13
15. 5
16. Gillian
17. 2100mm
18. 24 days
19. Darwin
20. 275mm
_________________________
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#1205960 - 01/08/2013 17:33 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Originally Posted By: TSVWeatherNerd
Originally Posted By: Locke
Or I could just copy all the correct answers from last year that WWW so kidly posted.

I mean its not as if the answers could change this year could they?


So true. Every year is the same, right? poke


Haha!! If only it were that easy!! laugh Oddly enough selecting answers based on results from the previous season hasn't even been good enough to make it into the Top 30 for the past 2 competitions! shocked That'll make ya think twice before submitting your forecasts! poke
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#1205969 - 01/08/2013 19:08 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Haha!! If only it were that easy!! laugh Oddly enough selecting answers based on results from the previous season hasn't even been good enough to make it into the Top 30 for the past 2 competitions! shocked That'll make ya think twice before submitting your forecasts! poke

It would probably result in an improvement for me though. The previous year's answers finished on a higher position than I did last year, lol. laugh
I think I'll wait a couple of days and decide whether I'll go with a random approach or a more thoughtful approach. Thoughtful hasn't worked for me in past competitions, so I'm leaning towards random for this year's competition.
Good to see the thunderstorm category has been moved from Townsville to Darwin instead. wink poke

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#1205971 - 01/08/2013 19:16 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Ok Here we go again
1. Oct 21
2.Oct 4
3.Oct 6
4.Dec 18
5. Western
6. 982
7.jan 4
8. Dec 29
9. Jan 14
10. Gove
11.Cat 2
12. +9
13. 41.9deg
14. 12
15. 5
16. Edna
17. 1834mm
18. 11
19. Mackay
20. 321mm

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#1205973 - 01/08/2013 19:17 Re: Annual Tropics Competition 2013/2014 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Just wait till the very end and get an average of everyone elses answers grin

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