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#1207830 - 20/08/2013 20:00 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I found it after a long search thanks Crikey!

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#1207831 - 20/08/2013 20:01 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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#1207832 - 20/08/2013 20:04 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
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Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I cant seem to make anim run on my computer! what free program software do I need anyone please?

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#1207837 - 20/08/2013 20:26 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Looked back in time, crikey, some sort of connection between AAO and Ozone though hard to pin down just looking at both, looks good at times other times hard to see really!? Would need to look a lot longer to confirm or deny the connections.

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#1208133 - 23/08/2013 20:12 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The 10hpa has progressed into a strong meridonal or wavy formation
as seen on this fabulous !!! animation of this SWELL!! smile
THe animation below is hotlinked and will update
You can clearly see the waves developing like an ocean swell!


source
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

I am keeping track of
this on my blog and posted this in comments tonight

Probably worthwhile noting that 10 hPa is the approx. the QBO layer . Wonder if there is a phase change underway in the QBO?

west to east phase or vice versa?

19th August 2013 animation...
"The saga continues.. The 10hPa layer in the stratosphere appears to be developing quite a wavy pattern of peaks and troughs on the animation.
The 10hPa has developed a strong meridonal flow
Of note ..
The troughs appears to be warm and the ridges appear to be cool."

It will be interesting to see if this wave action transfers to the 200hPajetstream and then down to long wave meridonal troughing at the surface layer at some time soon?


http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/...re-august-2013/
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#1208139 - 23/08/2013 21:19 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Loc: Tweed Heads
Looking at the current 200hPa stratospheric anomalies. There does look to be a massive positive height anomaly right around the Antartic stratosphere
see snaps below

Wonder whats going on?

Warming is stratosphere.More height?

Warming in troposphere..or surface of Antartica?


Something is changing the dynamics here quite significantly

Here is the before (JULY 2013) and now (AUGUST 2013)snaps

Impressive change isn't it!



Spring could be interesting with disruptions to the Jetstream flow?
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#1208160 - 24/08/2013 08:43 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
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Looks like it went downwards quite quickly Locke lookin at 500hpa heights 60-90S anoms Thw whole warming I mean. Strange that as per the last time it only seems to affect the eastrn 2/3rds globe(as on the chart) and have a gap of reasonable size along the west longtitudes near south america. Maybe something to do with the standing wave over the s americian andes range which goes well south and disrupts the westerly flow?


Edited by bd bucketingdown (24/08/2013 08:47)

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#1208163 - 24/08/2013 09:00 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Howeever does not show up much further north at 45S to 60S
looks like Rossby Waves there at 45 to 60S!
PS By the way Crikey my computer does not work on those animations do you know of a software program that I may be missing to fix that?


Edited by bd bucketingdown (24/08/2013 09:07)

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#1208181 - 24/08/2013 15:35 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
what what it mean if we had disruptions to the jet stream flow in Spring?

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#1208194 - 24/08/2013 21:55 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
What the!!
A massive atmospheric sinkhole has developed at 10hPa over Antartica.
That means the upper air is collapsing down over Antartica.
THis would push air up around the 'well' ?

Atmospheric Height low over Antartica and high around southern ocean.?

Have a look at the this snap below . The symmetry is incredible. That really is a sink hole.

This is the QBO layer. The QBO is currently westerly and strengthened to 14.4 last month

What the!!!

Central height - 25000 at the sth pole
Outer closed height bar is 30800.
A difference in height of = 5800




Thanks for your interest and analysis tools BD. Good to have some archives

Chris my thoughts on the implications of this sinkhole.
The collapse of the air layer over the Antartic is a significant perturbation.

A possible suitable analogy might be if someone cooled the air drastically over the affected region. The air depth has shrunk

or

as if someone has dropped a weight in the centre and squashed and displaced the air ?

Either way there should be some changes in the vertical and horizontal wave patterns in the southern hemisphere.

Extreme geopotential height gradients.
This should affect all atmospheric layers

Some thoughts
SAM could swing wildly?
Extreme anomalies in atmospheric pressure. High and low pressure?
Jetstream anomalies
Increased winds?
Fast changing synoptic patterns
The mind boggles

Spring could be dynamic!!!?

If you find anything BD.. Please post..
Great weather watch this one.

or is this just a change of season phenomena?
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#1208196 - 24/08/2013 22:05 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
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Loc: Tweed Heads
BD.
Re: the animation
The file is a .gif

You may have change your browser settings to allow .gif's

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gif
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#1208205 - 25/08/2013 07:49 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
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I can read all gif files except the animationn does not work stays on first pic always and does not move. I think I need a software file that somehow got deleted from the computer as I used to be able to read them Crikey. Will have to ask to computer wizz son I think!

That looks like a meteorological black hole there will have to look and see, never really looked at 10hpa charts previously to this?!

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#1208206 - 25/08/2013 08:01 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Looking at the 10hpa temps and thinking maybe this is what they look like every early spring crikey, strong temp gradients, strong westerly jets, fast moving fronts? IE may be quite normal in reality, just we have not looked up that high ussually. Just thinking aloud! cheers


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#1208210 - 25/08/2013 09:02 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
It will be interesting to see this will affect our storm season, this could also why we've been having big changes in temperature lately, a week or so ago it felt like late September and within a day or so the temperature dropped like a rock.


Edited by Chris Stumer (25/08/2013 09:08)
Edit Reason: more infro

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#1208215 - 25/08/2013 10:07 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2748
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Earlier posts suggest SSW happening a few months ago, would that have caused all that nasty cold weather in Tassie & N.Z early august?
If so, would this extreme depression herald another bad cold snap end of next month for Tassie & N.Z? I'll be in Auckland end sept with son#2 playing league, hopefully NOT in snow!

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#1208242 - 25/08/2013 19:00 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hey BD. That's a nice symmetric temperature pattern of the 100hPa temp you have snapped there.
That warm donut area anomaly is at the Jetstream level ...Interesting to see how this will pan out..

The temperature pattern is as you would intuitively expect.
The air sinks in the centre of hole
The sinking air has to go some where so radially pushes air up around the periphery of the hole.
Warm air from surface pushed up to higher layers at the 100hPa layer around the southern ocean in a donut shape . If strong enough the uplift penetrates up into the upper stratosphere to create some stratospheric warming spots.

This warmer air has entered the Jetstream layer
The effect may be surprising as jetstreams are formed from strong temperature differentials between sub tropical and sub polar 200hPa air.
If the temperature gradient increases as it currently appears
In theory the jet should increase speed and become more zonal.
THat would cause less fronts? As the Jetstream is straighter.

However the complex dynamics of waves , horizontal or vertical in this situation may create a mixed response?

Not sureMad elf re: the consequences. As BD says we rarely monitor the upper stratosphere . So some new territory in some respects

I will say BD. I have had some discussions with REN on Tallbloke blog who seems to believe this is quite extraordinary.


BD do you have a map of MSLP over the SH atm
With air descending strongly. The pressure over the Arctic should be anomalously high and the pressure over southern ocean rising should be anomalously low..

Maybe cold air from the Antarctic will be pushed northward as the air descends?
--------------------------

I have been updating my notes on my research blog daily on this event
Here are some notes from your post l posted tonight in the comments section

----------------------------------
Some continuing developments. Thanks to BD at weatherzone for his observations and snaps which will include below.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...min#Post1208215

AUGUST 24th 2013
Some strong crests and troughs circulating around the south pole. A SSW appears to be orbiting the sth pole currently and on the 24th Aug 2013 is located of the southern African post as seen in snap below

10hP temperature
Central cold spot is minus - 85 deg C
Centre of hot spot (SWW) is minus 30 deg c

The temperature difference along that line is a massive 55 deg C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_sh_f00.gif

----------------------------------------------------------------

The 100hPa layer on the 24th August 2013
-Cold core around the south pole
-warm anomaly in a donut configuration around the southern pole at southern ocean latitudes. The warmer and cooler patches around this donut shape are suggestive of a wave pattern within the donut shape

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_sh_f00.gif


EDIT
Also note .. There was a strong solar storm recently that sent the cosmic ray flux dropping drastically.
Some sought of pressure collapse ?
REN seems to see a top down response


Edited by crikey (25/08/2013 19:02)
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#1208245 - 25/08/2013 19:30 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2748
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Interesting stuff crikey! Anyone have any historical facts of the lowest measured mslp depression marching past tassie & N.Z. ?
Keep up the good work crikey.

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#1208247 - 25/08/2013 21:13 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
you really are a diligent researcher Crickey - pls keep up the good work, the concepts of this thread (esp the warm area down S uppers) is hard for this ole dummy to keep up with!

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#1208251 - 25/08/2013 21:27 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
"BD do you have a map of MSLP over the SH atm
With air descending strongly. The pressure over the Arctic should be anomalously high and the pressure over southern ocean rising should be anomalously low.."(Crikey)
The BOM CHARTS below give a good idea at what is going on at the surface...strong lows in the westerlies, yes, and high over Antartic area, though this is what normally occurs at this near early Spring time of year, though would not be sure of whether they are normally this low, the low pressure centres I mean.


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#1208253 - 25/08/2013 21:30 Re: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) [Re: crikey]
bd bucketingdown Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
This is the 1000-500 thickness southern hemp view, comments same as previous post...

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