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#1207996 - 22/08/2013 13:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Calistob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2006
Posts: 222
Loc: Toongabbie NSW

I agree. I prefer to base a change in seasonal trend on longer term (decades) trends rather than the amount of recent records falling.

I was trying to avoid a climate change discussion because that tends to cause disagreement on this forum. While I do have my opinions on climate change, I was only expressing my observations in my 25 years living in Gladesville.

I was overseas for that 2011 Sydney "summer" but I believe contrary to what Bokkey has said, many were in fact moaning about the lack of summer temperatures. Everyone I spoke to in Australia was commenting on the fact that Summer was basically non-existent.

It is true that we tend to have a short-term memory sometimes about weather conditions and trends. For myself - it is usually lack of thunder-storms. 2 weeks without a thunderstorm in Sydney and I'll probably be ranting about how it's been months since I so much as heard any thunder poke


Edited by Calistob (22/08/2013 13:36)

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#1207998 - 22/08/2013 13:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Calistob]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Originally Posted By: Calistob
Blue Tongue Lizards out of hibernation sunning themselves, my own pet Bearded Dragon has woken up as well.


The dogs started checking out my rock walls 3 weeks ago and I thought they were being silly, the Cunningham's Skinks would have still been asleep. These are big fat skinks, a bit like shinglebacks, lumpy fat lizards, some are huge.

But no, they were on the move. Staying in the wall mainly, and catching any sun they could, but they were mobile. In August! Near Canberra too.

I've got last summer's nasturtium seeds germinating, and some that never died down, flowering.

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#1208001 - 22/08/2013 13:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3666
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Actually thunder has been pretty rare in Sydney this past 12 months. While Last Summer was warm with some very hot days, there were few storms and those that I saw were pretty mediocre. Actually the non-Summer of 2011-2 was not a bad one for storms, averaging about one a week in December and January then tailing off, but with a spectacular storm to end the season on Easter Sunday.

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#1208002 - 22/08/2013 13:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Yes last years storm season was rubbish, Spring was very dry in most locations so any extra heat was wasted. we didn't get any decent rain between from August until December last year, not conductive for storms at all.

Late Summer and then into Autumn it normally just turns into rain events, with exceptions of course.


Edited by Enrique (22/08/2013 13:52)

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#1208013 - 22/08/2013 16:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9876
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cold line of showers just went through here. Cold night at Tennis coming up. smile

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#1208052 - 22/08/2013 23:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
We're getting the odd shower, and a bit of wind. Tad warm for anything interesting though. Earlier on I had hopes, it was trending colder with rain that sounded like it had aspirations, but I went outside a while back, and it felt thick and humid. 4.4c now, it was below 2c earlier in the evening. the clouds seem lower, hill-touchers.

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#1208055 - 23/08/2013 00:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
according to the radar, we are about to get utterly hammered by a giant rain thing. Well, that will be good.

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#1208075 - 23/08/2013 08:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9876
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Light misty showers here this morning and a bit overnight. Rain gauge not really showing anything much just damp. Looks like it may continue that way for a while at least.

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#1208098 - 23/08/2013 12:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I don't know what happened to our big rain thing, it was heading in from wagga, unless it was a mirage? Got a few spits and that was it. And before dawn, the delightful wind started up, again, with a damaging winds warning on the radio as I drove in. Just been sitting out in it, wishing I'd worn a jacket, still chilly.

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#1208170 - 24/08/2013 10:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
OCF going for 25-26C on the coast and 27.5C in penrith and richmond next friday.. yeehaa a chance to defrost by the looks. Should be a general warmup from then on

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#1208190 - 24/08/2013 19:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I happened to be eyeing the console today, around 2pm, when it hit the forecast max of 17c. Didn't last long, next time I looked, it was heading back down. Bloody wind arrived again, a northerly, but not damaging, just inconvenient. Lovely warm day.

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#1208211 - 25/08/2013 09:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3666
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looking at the average to date and the forecast, Sydney (Observatory Hill) is on track to fall just short of it's August maximum record (21.0 VS 21.3) but will beat the 'hot' August of 2009 (second warmest at 20.9). The average (15.7) will fall just short of the all time record (15.8 in 1995 and 2009).

The remarkable thing about this month has been the consistency of the warmth. If the forecast is correct, the highest maximum for the month will be 26 next Friday, which is nothing special. But the fact that the temperature consistently reached the low 20's on sunny days, about 3 to 5 above average, is what did it, more like September or early Octiober than August.

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#1208224 - 25/08/2013 15:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Steve777
it, more like September or early Octiober than August.


People have been wearing jumpers and this winter has been bitterly cold and soooo long.


Back to reality, this will be the 2nd-3rd warmest August on record here coming straight after the warmest ever July.

Warmest August was in 1995 at 21.9c with 2009 ranking second at 21.6c. If the forecast comes off we could average 21.7c so it could be close. There's little doubt now that August maximums will end up warmer than the long term September average.

1995 was actually not a warm year here, just a warm August and both of the top two followed a pretty ordinary July. 2009 was also a weak/moderate El Nino and This year is Neutral to borderline La Nina and negative IOD which has provided no rain for a lot of the continent.


Edited by Enrique (25/08/2013 15:11)

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#1208228 - 25/08/2013 17:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1141
Loc: Canberra
21C is almost record-breaking territory. Shocking. Prior to 1982 it actually was the record
_________________________
Stop the Hot

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#1208232 - 25/08/2013 18:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
2 days ago I was up on the tip of cape York drinkin and fishing in 33c heat. Back to reality here. Spending two weeks up there and coming back down to here makes you feel the coolness in the air.

The mins up the tip were 21-22c!
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1208347 - 27/08/2013 07:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Canberra's Weather]
Farmer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/06/2004
Posts: 556
Originally Posted By: Canberra's Weather
21C is almost record-breaking territory. Shocking. Prior to 1982 it actually was the record



Surprise, Surprise....It is going to hit 20 in Canberra and look who's back laugh
_________________________
-----------Near Sutton, NSW

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#1208365 - 27/08/2013 12:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 830
Loc: Cammeray
21 degrees NEVER AGAIN!!

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#1208379 - 27/08/2013 17:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Farmer]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5326
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Farmer
Originally Posted By: Canberra's Weather
21C is almost record-breaking territory. Shocking. Prior to 1982 it actually was the record



Surprise, Surprise....It is going to hit 20 in Canberra and look who's back laugh


lol.

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#1208390 - 27/08/2013 19:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Enrique said
"this year is Neutral to borderline La Nina and negative IOD which has provided no rain for a lot of the continent."

Evolution of negative IOD events
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/negative/index.shtml

It would appear it is a myth that a negative IOD gives good rain to much of OZ from June to August

Here is the expected rainfall distribution
... for June to August..
that is currently looking as expected

EXPECTED RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION FOR A NEG' IOD FROM JUNE TO AUGUST


AUGUST to OCTOBER




Edited by crikey (27/08/2013 19:02)
_________________________
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#1208395 - 27/08/2013 19:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
yet the BOM still forecast this and got it very wrong.



Temperature


Edited by Enrique (27/08/2013 19:29)

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