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#1209730 - 10/09/2013 19:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2162
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Not good with property being lost and some RFS personal being injured with one having a heart attack and it is very possible someone has lit some of these fires, I will keep to myself what I would like to do to these fire bugs mad.

24.9c outside with the westerly blowing and smell of bushfire in the air but clear skies and not even the hint of a shower on the radar.

I hope this is not a precursor of things to come this warm season but could be likely.

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#1209736 - 10/09/2013 20:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Fireduck Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/01/2013
Posts: 22
Loc: Lake Munmorah
Big day for the NSWRFS and FRNSW. Today's conditions have not been seen in the Sydney Basin for a number of years, and more telling is that I would be surprised if todays conditions had occurred in September in recent memory.

To give some insight into the ingredients from today.

FDI: Sydney AP hit an FDI of 101, this would normally trigger a Catastrophic Fire Danger. Richmond hit pushing this into Extreme. Penrith hit 53 pushing into Severe. Anything of Very High and above produces fires of high intensity, combined with the strong winds this made containment impossible.

RH: Single digit RH in a number of areas. Anything below 15% has a significant impact on fire intensity. Anything below 35% will produce moving fires.

Winds: Hot, dry NW winds peaking into the 50km/hr produced a wind driven fire, spotting well ahead of itself.

Currently:

Marsden Park: Section 44 Bushfire Emergency, Going, 10 hectares, 70 Firefighters. Watch and Act in place

Castlereagh: Section 44 Bushfire Emergency, Going, 980 hectares, 200 firefighters, Watch and Act in place

Winmalee: Section 44 Bushfire Emergency, Going, 531 hectares, 145 firefighters. Watch and Act in Place

Richmond: Section 44 Bushfire Emergency, Going, 300 hectares, 126 Firefighters, Watch and Act in place.

Yarramalong: Being Controlled, 48 hectares, 38 firefighters.


There is more still going around the state, with condition tomorrow likely to still cause some issues.

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#1209740 - 10/09/2013 21:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Yep, it was an awful day fire wise.
What I'm more shocked about is that it was completely
not foreseen.
I knew today was going to be warm to very warm, with winds up to 30-40 km/h. Probably very high fire danger rating in September.
When I left for work this morning from Olympic Park, at 6.30 am, winds were already gusting to 50 km/h. Temp was 23.3!!!!!! Dew Point at 6.6. Mid 30's humidity.
Why were these conditions such a surprise for our highly qualified meteorologists? No warnings. No change to warnings during the morning. It was a classic Extreme to Catastrophic day as it unfolded. 30 days without rain.
God forbid what might have happened if a spark had set off anything in the bush to the west of Glenorie, Galston, Dural, Kenthurst, Annangrove, Arcadia, Berowra, Hornsby etc.....

I'm just shocked that today's conditions were as bad as they were, but no one at the BOM seemed to have any idea they would occur.
This morning's forecast was tame at best.
When do the BOM become liable?

Homer


Edited by Homer (10/09/2013 21:59)

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#1209744 - 10/09/2013 22:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Fireduck Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/01/2013
Posts: 22
Loc: Lake Munmorah
It's a tough one Homer. Unfortunately there was a few small difference that resulted in a far worse day.

The expected RH was about 15% lower than expected. This had a dramatic impact on the FDI, as did sustained wind about 15km/hr faster than expected. End result was a much higher FDI.

Total Fire Bans placed during the day are very ineffective and would not of prevented the outbreak of fire.

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#1209746 - 10/09/2013 23:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Fireduck]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Fireduck
It's a tough one Homer. Unfortunately there was a few small difference that resulted in a far worse day.

The expected RH was about 15% lower than expected. This had a dramatic impact on the FDI, as did sustained wind about 15km/hr faster than expected. End result was a much higher FDI.

Total Fire Bans placed during the day are very ineffective and would not of prevented the outbreak of fire.


LoL. Those are conditions that the BOM have been very good at predicting before.
We get these predictions every week when conditions like this are possible.
Someone dropped the ball today.
Seriously.
You know, it's funny, but sad.
Every time we see someone from the BOM interviewed on the news, they come across as the most clueless dorks. I know that, in general, the weather, as a hobby or daily subject, is considered dorky by the general public. But surely the BOM can employ someone who can at least display half an ounce of intelligence and personality when dealing with the media.
I'm so sick of hearing radio announcers saying "and now, we cross to ***********, from the BOM", and they sound like drop kicks, who give no more info than any of us can read on here.

Why is it that BOM employees all come across in the media as hopelessly inept nerds?

Govt department I suspect.

Homer

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#1209748 - 10/09/2013 23:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2162
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
On the subject of the BOM, I'm surprised at the forecast with " The chance of a shower along the coastal fringe later this evening" when we have SW winds predicted for tonight and tomorrow as well. There is activity with this usual setup over a 100km's out to sea like usual.
Might get the phantom 0.2mm by morning if we're lucky.

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#1209756 - 11/09/2013 08:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Marts]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Apparently Strathfield Golf Club officially recorded 1mm of rain in the last 24hrs, someone left the sprinklers on near the gauge no doubt.

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#1209757 - 11/09/2013 08:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hoping for showers or rain on Fri and possibly Sun/Mon. I think we will get some precip, not as much as would be nice but we should see something. If we can scrape up 15 to 20mm over a few days it would be a good temporary booster for most people atm.

Weather much nicer here today, not so windy, air clear and pleasantly coolish (not cold). Dropped to about 4 overnight but warmed rapidly as soon as the sun got going.

Currently our maxes (avg) mtd are November averages.

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#1209766 - 11/09/2013 10:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
perrywinkle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 431
Loc: Warrawee Valley
The BOM does not make bushfire weather. If they overblow forecasts routinely no-one will pay attention when it really matters.

I'd like the RFS to REVISE the fire danger ratings if they increase as a day progresses. No one should be embarrassed by providing better information as it comes to hand!

BOM forecasts and RFS Fire Danger Ratings are just information, and they don't change the day, or replace good management. The tools of management are town planners, firefighters, and the public.

Management is where we slip up.... How many people reading this have a fire plan (even a verbal one), and have discussed it with their family? How many have cleared out their garden, trimmed overhanging branches, and moved obstructions from round their houses?

People out walking yesterday morning were asking me why I was up at 5am clearing leaves. Even when complaining about the hot winds, they had no idea what was unfolding. They would not believe me because they hadn't heard it on the news. FDRs have a clear role, but they are next to useless if not reported, and if no one acts to manage their own property.

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#1209770 - 11/09/2013 10:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Blair Trewin]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Like a good cartoon such as Family Guy this thread has a few plots running side by side.

I see this Addams Family lee cloud over Sydney is just getting thicker and thicker despite the forecast of mostly sunny. This cloud is growing and spreading its gloom down the coast now.

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I'm assuming, although I don't know for sure, that the main reason why Observatory Hill doesn't have a manual rain gauge (and hasn't had since 1990) is because of the distance between the observing site and the Bureau office (which is near Central Station), especially as the Sydney CBD near 9am is not exactly the easiest place to get around in a hurry. There are still manual gauges at places like Melbourne and Adelaide where the logistics are a bit more practical.

I got an email from a BoM rep in 2006 or thereabouts clearly stating that there were manual rainfall readings at Obs Hill (as well as automated readings). Someone was telling me pork pies if Blair is correct in declaring that OH rain readings have been solely automated since 1990.

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#1209801 - 11/09/2013 18:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I saw the 'Addams Family' cloud on the satellite picture - a small blob over Eastern Sydney. I thought it would clear quickly but instead is grew and followed me to the Central Coast. It looked like today would be our first sub-20 day for a while. However, the cloud drifted Eastwards around lunch time, with the temperature shooting up by 4 degrees in an hour once the distinct clearing edge passed over.


Lee Cloud Clearing Edge by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

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#1209837 - 12/09/2013 08:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Looks like this dry spell should come to an end on Monday next week at the latest I would think.

Not big amounts but should be some light rain around Sydney.

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#1209838 - 12/09/2013 08:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Fingers crossed for some rain here. Hope we get 15mm or so.

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#1209842 - 12/09/2013 09:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
-1 here this morning, nice and cool, warmed rapidly though since then, now about 12.

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#1209858 - 12/09/2013 14:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
wilderwood Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/06/2009
Posts: 100
Loc: Southern Highlands
I can't believe they have rain forecast for Friday and Monday in Bowral, about time. #senditdownhughie

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#1209888 - 12/09/2013 19:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2162
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Well the southerly has moved through here now with some decent gusts. Radar is showing some nice cells off the coast as well.
Doesn't look like any shower activity in the basin yet but the satellite images looks ok.
We all really need some rain.

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#1209895 - 12/09/2013 20:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A very blustery Southerly change passed through here a bit before 7:00 PM. I note that there were wind gusts up to 80 km/h at coastal locations near Sydney, e.g. Sydney Airport. Temperature has dropped by about 6 or 7 degrees in about an hour.

I note that a gale warning was issued for Sydney closed waters at 8:07 PM but I don't remember one from earlier today. The forecast has just been updated but I think that's a 'retrospective' forecast. Before it was indicating wind turning Southerly and picking up a bit but no gales. I think this might be a BOM fail.

The NZ Met chart of the Tasman Sea @ 6:00 PM NZ time shows a cold front near Sydney, BOM's map just shows a trough line.


Edited by Steve777 (12/09/2013 20:40)
Edit Reason: Clarification

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#1209898 - 12/09/2013 20:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Another fail is correct.
Nerds/public servants.

Homer.

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#1209911 - 12/09/2013 21:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2162
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Well the first lot of scud cloud has been moving over head for an hour or so, plenty more to come this season!
A couple of showers in the basin on radar atm, moving quick as expected with the southerly like this, some good gust have been moving through.

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#1209948 - 13/09/2013 08:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We've actually had to light the fire again the last 2 nights, seems like ages since I last lit it (prob only 2 weeks really)

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