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#1210348 - 16/09/2013 11:52 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Link to JMA (STS Man-Yi)
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/131824c.html

(Landfall has already occurred. Man-Yi continues moving NE and is west of Tokyo)

STS 1318 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 01:45 UTC, 16 September 2013
Analyses at 16/01 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N3530'(35.5) E13800'(138.0)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE170km(90NM) NW110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE650km(350NM) NW460km(250NM)

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#1210433 - 16/09/2013 18:57 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
BBC News link to (Typhoon) Man-Yi
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24105292

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#1210760 - 18/09/2013 21:57 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 40
Loc: Cairns
Keeping an eye on Usagi as I'm flying to Hong Kong on Friday morning! My first northern hemisphere Tropical Storm grin

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#1210762 - 18/09/2013 23:28 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
link to JMA 3-day: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1319c.html
Typhoon Usagi
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 September 2013

Analyses at 18/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N1720'(17.3)
E12935'(129.6)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more

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#1210763 - 18/09/2013 23:36 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
the latest JMA 5-day track suggests Signal 8 will be required from HKO during Mon 23/9 and Tue 24/9 (probably overnight).

Signal 1 is likely to start on Saturday 21/9 with Signal 3 during Sunday 22/9.

Usagi is a big system with gale force winds extending 440km in all directions from the centre. It will affect Taiwan, Philippines, Hong Kong and Guangdong province (China)

HKO will issue public warnings (no warnings at this time)
These are at: http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/tcWarninge.htm

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#1210764 - 18/09/2013 23:52 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
can someone please post the JTWC track/threat map in this thread.
The JTWC website is too difficult to view in China

I have seen the GFS model run and assume JTWC forecast is similar

Thanks
Steven

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#1210770 - 19/09/2013 07:07 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Steven
can someone please post the JTWC track/threat map in this thread.
The JTWC website is too difficult to view in China

I have seen the GFS model run and assume JTWC forecast is similar

Thanks
Steven


_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1210779 - 19/09/2013 10:19 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 40
Loc: Cairns
Looking to be a very few interesting days ahead. I leave for Hong Kong tomorrow morning and am looking forward to seeing what I get to experience!

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#1210780 - 19/09/2013 10:22 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
955HPa and likely to intensify further

TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 18 September 2013

Analyses at 18/21 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N1700'(17.0) E12825'(128.4)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

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#1210781 - 19/09/2013 10:25 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Kelmac: If signal 8 is issued by HKO take note that the stock market, all banks, schools, embassies and any other govt run facilities (including public transport) will be shutdown.

I managed to get to Shenzhen during August just before signal 8 was issued and rode out last months typhoon there, but this could be much worse if JTWC is correct

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#1210782 - 19/09/2013 10:30 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
kelmac Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2010
Posts: 40
Loc: Cairns
Thanks for the heads up, Steven. Very handy to know what comes with what particular signal. We'll be keeping a close eye on things as it looks closer to making landfall and making sure we are prepared as best we can. If possible, I will get any footage/photos (safely).

Will consider moving to other locations if it starts to look a bit dicey. We are staying in TST.

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#1210784 - 19/09/2013 11:16 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4586
Here's the latest multi-model track and intensity spread for Usagi from a system run by the US Navy. Reasonable consensus in tracks out to around Sun before some divergence creeps in. Note that the thresholds in the intensity graph aren't based on Australian criteria:




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#1210795 - 19/09/2013 14:20 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...

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#1210800 - 19/09/2013 17:06 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA link is http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1319c.html

Category 4 Typhoon and has increased in size this afternoon.
JMA forecasts more intensification

This system is dangerous and a threat to Taiwan, Philippines, Hong Kong and Guangdong province (China).

TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 19 September 2013
Analyses at 19/06 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N1730'(17.5) E12800'(128.0)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)

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#1210803 - 19/09/2013 17:49 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
(Interesting, now I can view JTWC at Shanghai, China. Never been able to do that before. Anyway, I assume I won't be able to look at it for long...)

The destructive core of Typhoon Usagi is small (110km radius), the compact core could cause a lot of damage in the area of landfall when it finally reaches the southern Chinese coastline early next week. Landfall is not expected in Taiwan or the Philippines.

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#1210827 - 19/09/2013 21:07 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
MTSAT IR West Colorized Loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

Typhoon Usagi is definitely intensifying more, it is clearly visible on the false color IR loop

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#1210831 - 19/09/2013 21:54 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
HKO link is http://www.hko.gov.hk/sweather_tips.html

Special Weather Tips

Tropical cyclone Usagi will edge closer to the coast of Guangdong on Sunday, posing a threat to Hong Kong. Weather will deteriorate significantly with strengthening winds and rough seas. If you are planning to travel out of Hong Kong or having other activities, changes in weather may affect your plans.

Issued at 18:30 HKT 19/Sep/2013

(I have never seen HKO issue this type of statement before signal 1. Repeating earlier posts, this system is extremely dangerous and the centre has been forecast to hit HK by JTWC, ECMWF and JMA. Theoretically, 3-sec gusts exceeding 200km/hr could occur in downtown HK during Monday)

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#1210835 - 19/09/2013 22:54 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA central pressure 915HPa
Looks very impressive on satellite and forecast to intensify a bit more and to hold this intensify for 24 hours.
The destructive core has increased in size and now has a diameter of 300km (it was 220km)

TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 19 September 2013
Analyses at 19/12 UTC
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N1805'(18.1) E12720'(127.3)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)

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#1210837 - 19/09/2013 23:17 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA has shifted landfall slightly east of HK, this would definitely be at least signal 8 (100km away is not far enough to avoid the effects of a severe typhoon)

It is important that the eye of a severe typhoon does NOT hit HK.
Severe damage could occur in the city from a direct hit.
This happened in 1937 and killed more than 11,000 people - granted today HK is very different

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#1210838 - 20/09/2013 01:20 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Both JTWC and JMA have shifted landfall slightly east of HK.
JTWC forecast from 1500Z has 90KT 1-min sustained and 110KT 10-sec gusts east of HK. this transates to 3-sec gusts of more than 200km/hr and would be a signal 10

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