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#1210315 - 16/09/2013 08:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Good to see some decent falls inland thanks to the associated trough. As crikey points out i dont think we will see much on the coast until much later today as the low moves further East, although some light rain looks likely at some point this morning/afternoon. Just crossing the SA coast as we speak (type). Charts look fantastic for some heavy falls this afternoon/tonight on the CT's and BM's smile

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#1210319 - 16/09/2013 09:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3090
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I note that the phantom 0.2 for August 14 at Observatory Hill has disappeared. The 0.2 for August 12 remains. On that day, a cold front passed through Sydney in the early afternoon (see posts for that date) so I thought that reading was plausible.

So the dry spell over the Sydney area finished at 33 to 35 days. with small amounts over the last few days. Hopefully there will be something significant today.


Edited by Steve777 (16/09/2013 09:55)
Edit Reason: Clarifiaction

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#1210327 - 16/09/2013 10:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9121
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Just nice light persistent rain since about 8 am this morning. Good old fashioned rainy day. This will soak the soil the best instead of rapid runoff.

Feels like it should go all day. Sat pic looks great.

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#1210330 - 16/09/2013 10:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1525
Loc: Orange, NSW
Something strange and foreign is falling from the sky!
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1210336 - 16/09/2013 11:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Calistob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2006
Posts: 222
Loc: Toongabbie NSW
2.1mm here in Gladesville so far this morning. It's a nice start but much more needed to penetrate the soil.

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#1210338 - 16/09/2013 11:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1817
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I note that the phantom 0.2 for August 14 at Observatory Hill has disappeared. The 0.2 for August 12 remains. On that day, a cold front passed through Sydney in the early afternoon (see posts for that date) so I thought that reading was plausible.


Definitely NOT plausible. The 0.2 was registered the day before on the 11th on a bright sunny day just as a sea breeze came in. August 11 shows the phantom attack. If you go to the next day you can see the front come through but it was dry.

Hopefully the BoM just need some time to work through the data and eliminate the 12th. Otherwise it would be a shame to mask the second longest dry spell in 150+ years due to a faulty reading.

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#1210339 - 16/09/2013 11:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4269
I wouldn't be surprised if some storms today/Tue tried to become severe due to the ample moisture, strong shear & forcing from the surface and upper levels.

Here's the latest outputs from my thunderstorm and tornado scripts for Mon & Tue. Note that for the tornado one, it's *not* a pure tornado probability map - it simply shows areas where there's an overlap in broadscale ingredients favourable for tornado formation. The rest is up to local storm-scale mechanisms as to whether one forms or not:






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#1210342 - 16/09/2013 11:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: kizz]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3090
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, Kizz, my mistake. The cold front came through early in the afternoon on the 12th and any rain it might have produced would have been recorded against the 13th. Daylight hours between 9:00 11th and 9:00 12th were bright and sunny and humidity was fairly low, so I agree, rain during those hours would seem to be very unlikely.

Steady light rain here on the lower North Shore for the last couple of hours.


Edited by Steve777 (16/09/2013 11:27)

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#1210356 - 16/09/2013 13:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Still waiting! Haha looks like some moderate falls moving across the ranges at present however so should see something, anything in the next hour or two.

Its been a long time between drinks. I just checked the Penrith AWS records and Saturday night was the first rainfall >1mm since 30/07/13, and even then it was only 2mm!

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#1210359 - 16/09/2013 13:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4903
Loc: Dural
davidg,

That rain band is taking ages to penetrate the basin. It's looked like that for hours, only slowly pressing forward before a drying trend as it moves south eastwards. No doubt it will push through, but it's taking its sweet damned time. Maybe Crikey's map will come to fruition, with the heaviest rain (and storms) later tonight.
That stream coming in from the north east is interesting, and giving a nice soaking to the east of the city.

Homer

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#1210368 - 16/09/2013 14:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9121
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Still raining persistently out here. Slowed off a little (but not stopped)an hour ago but back into it now with a bit heavier rain than this morning. Certainly feels like we should get a good ole fashioned inch out of this.

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#1210370 - 16/09/2013 14:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DaveM]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4903
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Still raining persistently out here. Slowed off a little (but not stopped)an hour ago but back into it now with a bit heavier rain than this morning. Certainly feels like we should get a good ole fashioned inch out of this.


Very happy for you Dave. Exactly what you were wishing for.

Homer

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#1210373 - 16/09/2013 14:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Hey guys started a new thread for this one NSW/ACT Rain - TROUGH + LOW 16/09/13-18/09/13

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#1210581 - 17/09/2013 10:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1817
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
I'm guessing by the winds and pressure that the low which has formed off the south coast between Nowra and Moruya is 'bombing'.

Some impressive winds (120 km/h) and pressure drops (993 hPa) observed at Montague Island.

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#1210583 - 17/09/2013 11:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: kizz]
aussielunix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2003
Posts: 784
Loc: Windellama, NSW @ 630m asl
Originally Posted By: kizz
I'm guessing by the winds and pressure that the low which has formed off the south coast between Nowra and Moruya is 'bombing'.

Some impressive winds (120 km/h) and pressure drops (993 hPa) observed at Montague Island.



Quote:
An extratropical cyclone (low) where the central pressure drops by at least 1hPa per hour for 24 hours.



Pressure drop for 1000 to 1000 (24hrs)

Pt Perpendicular 18 hPa
Moruya Ap 22 hPa
Ulladulla 20 hPa
Montague Is 20 hPa

Close enough I'd say. Last time I remember an ECL 'bombing' was June 2008.

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#1210629 - 17/09/2013 16:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2885
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Sydney and the Illawarra got skunked today in regard to missing thunderstorms. With high cloud once again invading, and possible light rain the chances are now close to ZERO.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1210861 - 20/09/2013 12:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 74
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Getting very windy here.

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#1210864 - 20/09/2013 14:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1817
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Some serious looking cloudage rolling into Sydney this afternoon. Impressive looking Cu from West to South to East.
Radar showing it spilling into the basin as I type.

I see a surface trough passing through on the charts but no precip in the BoM forecast for today.

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#1210865 - 20/09/2013 14:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 735
Loc: Cammeray
Storms now in the western suburbs. No mention of even a shower in the forecast. Just 'mostly sunny'. Strange

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#1210866 - 20/09/2013 14:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 427
Originally Posted By: matchstick guitar
Storms now in the western suburbs. No mention of even a shower in the forecast. Just 'mostly sunny'. Strange


Yep, light rain in my area of Sydney atm.

Good old BOM, their seaweed must have failed them for todays forecast.

now heavier rain coming down! Pretty wet now, **** usless BOM.

They have just insreted - with the chance of a brief shower. into their forecast for today, they aren't supposed to react to the radar for a days forecast and change it as they go along!


Edited by Jon77 (20/09/2013 14:47)

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