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#1209045 - 03/09/2013 23:07 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8525
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
That must be for a positive PDO not a negative one.

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#1209059 - 04/09/2013 08:56 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
The temps seem right but the precips opposite .

Even if it was NH centric , its wrong as Western United states sees droughts in -PDO ....
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#1209741 - 10/09/2013 22:02 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Adele Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Somerset TAS
Thought I would post the latest update from BOM.

Tropical Pacific and Indian oceans both neutral
Issued on Tuesday 10 September 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with virtually all indicators at near-normal levels. Only cloudiness near the Date Line shows a weak La Nia-like signal. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of 2013. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Nia-like cooling of the tropical Pacific.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has weakened considerably over the past month and a half, with IOD-neutral values prevailing since early August. The consensus of climate models is for the IOD to remain neutral for the remainder of the year, suggesting that the 2013 negative IOD is most likely at an end.

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#1211094 - 22/09/2013 13:33 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Vinnie Offline
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Registered: 17/05/2006
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Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
So we are not likely to see an El Nino this year ?
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#1211097 - 22/09/2013 13:37 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
SBT Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14222
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
In a word no.

Weak La Nina by all accounts. That doesn't mean no rainfall but it could see a pretty poor rainfall total.
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#1211124 - 22/09/2013 17:21 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: SBT]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: SBT
In a word no.

Weak La Nina by all accounts. That doesn't mean no rainfall but it could see a pretty poor rainfall total.


Based on what exactly?


For those interested in the actual probabilities here's BoM's latest outlook which is a pretty good reflection of current conditions.






About as neutral as it gets. The cooling on the surface off South America is all but washed out now. There is a slightly better than even money chance of further warming.

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#1211144 - 22/09/2013 20:11 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
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Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Based on the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and its influence on ENSO, I am confident in continuing to state that I believe we will see further warming until about mid 2014, probably reaching moderate El Nino thresholds, with a moderate-strong La Nina developing by summer 2014-2015. This excites me as it backs up some work that I was looking at looking at a relationship between ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation, which provided a long lead time for predicting ENSO trends, though unfortunately, not specific with regard to temperature anomalies.
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#1211377 - 25/09/2013 07:38 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 49
Loc: lennox head
That'll be interesting to observe.

Chances of greater than median rainfall for NENSW 60% eh?

So far we've had 43mm for Sep......

I guess there are signs of a more troughy pattern forming but it still feels like last year....which was a quasi Nino state before a quasi Nina pattern developed.

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#1211402 - 25/09/2013 13:11 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
The new seasonal forecast is out from the BOM Today Oct to Dec and not surprisingly the BOM have now reverted to most of eastern OZ possibly being drier than normal apart from Tasmania and SW Vic, I'm guessing the negative SAM will continue which means stronger than normal westerlies and front after front pattern will continue which means that eastern inland OZ and most of the east coast will continue to see drier than normal weather

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml?link=1
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#1211403 - 25/09/2013 13:12 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
From the BOM

With the main climate influences forecast to remain neutral, secondary influences may have higher impact. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures currently surround much of southern and western Australia, potentially adding more moisture to the atmosphere and hence partially explaining the higher chance of wetter weather over Tasmania. They may also influence some broad scale atmospheric circulation patterns. POAMA suggests below normal pressures over the southeastern parts of the continent, particularly during October. This may result in drier continental air flowing into Queensland from the west.
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#1211703 - 28/09/2013 03:19 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: MAFILI]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: So Paulo/Brazil
PDO INDEX = -1.04
Reasonable....expected slightly negative
Originally Posted By: MAFILI
Very negative ~ -2,2

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#1211713 - 28/09/2013 07:11 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
record high SOI today on long paddock!!!
SOI values for 26 Sep 2013
Average for last 30 days
69.4
Average for last 90 days
25.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation
1927.7
LOL!

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#1211727 - 28/09/2013 10:43 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: So Paulo/Brazil
Originally Posted By: bd bucketingdown
record high SOI today on long paddock!!!
SOI values for 26 Sep 2013
Average for last 30 days
69.4
Average for last 90 days
25.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation
1927.7
LOL!


I thought this forum was serious .... sorry

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#1211758 - 28/09/2013 14:26 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
He was having a laugh about an error. Get over yourself. By the way your avatar is far too big. It's certainly appropriate though.

They've since amended the error.
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#1211806 - 28/09/2013 21:50 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: So Paulo/Brazil
Okay,

October month is interesting,

The correlation Nio 3.4 x LTT (UAH)

Shows surprising results as the anti correlation Nio 3.4 x PDO region.



Edited by MAFILI (28/09/2013 21:57)

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#1212636 - 05/10/2013 15:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Still the warm water out east is struggling to have an influence on the surface. The thermocline is flattening out slightly though in the past couple of weeks near Sth America. I don't see much change from neutral though now. it's too late in the year imo.

What is interesting is the IOD. The waters around the nth east coast are cooler than average for the first time in many months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
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#1212709 - 07/10/2013 09:17 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Should read nth west coast. My mistake.
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#1212826 - 08/10/2013 19:13 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7150
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
So from the above am I correct in interpreting average rains for Aust's E for the next 6 weeks then tending dry for summer?

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#1212883 - 09/10/2013 11:25 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18424
Loc: Burnett Heads
Global models are pointing that way Petros. I'm not so convinced. I think it could go either way this summer.
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#1212900 - 09/10/2013 14:24 Re: ENSO Discussion 2013 [Re: _Johnno_]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1802
Loc: Kingaroy
I hope we don't get a dry summer this year, with most of Queensland already crippled by drought, a dry summer would be the last thing farmers need.

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