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#1212364 - 03/10/2013 12:22 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Machans Beach Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/10/2013
Posts: 1
It seems to be heating up in Cairns earlier than what it did last year. Will this mean we might be in for more action this season ????

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#1212463 - 03/10/2013 18:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Too early to tell yet but it could mean a better than expected season. Not counting chickens before they hatch though.
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#1212593 - 04/10/2013 22:13 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Machans Beach]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Machans Beach
It seems to be heating up in Cairns earlier than what it did last year. Will this mean we might be in for more action this season ????


http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/outlooks/seasonal/qld.shtml
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#1212609 - 05/10/2013 10:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4171
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Article in the Cairn Post Re the Upcoming Cyclone season.

Cairns Post: http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2013/10/05/248833_local-news.html
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#1212702 - 06/10/2013 23:46 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
The BoM likes to hedge it's bets with the seasonal cyclone outlook. Anyone want to bet that it will say something along the lines of "Average season with 12 to 14 cyclones in our AOR" in other words almost exactly what they have said for the last couple of years.

3 to 4 is normal for us .... just a pity that we haven't had a 'normal' amount since Yasi.
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#1212805 - 08/10/2013 15:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: SBT]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2364
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: SBT
The BoM likes to hedge it's bets with the seasonal cyclone outlook. Anyone want to bet that it will say something along the lines of "Average season with 12 to 14 cyclones in our AOR" in other words almost exactly what they have said for the last couple of years.

3 to 4 is normal for us .... just a pity that we haven't had a 'normal' amount since Yasi.


LOL, like that comment about BOM
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#1212819 - 08/10/2013 18:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: SBT
The BoM likes to hedge it's bets


Wrong ,they use science. It is a neutral year and this means average. Average means 13 cyclones. Or between 12-14 wink

Originally Posted By: SBT

3 to 4 is normal for us ....


We average 0.8 coastal crossings a year in Queensland and this includes crossings from western Cape York. Yasi, Anthony and Oswald all crossed the Queensland coast in the last 3 seasons. We are above average for the past 3 seasons. Now if you check the number of cyclones that occurred within the AOR last season you'll see we achieved our "average" of 3-4 in our neck of the woods .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2012-2013_Australian_region_cyclone_season_summary.png





They were within one or two systems of being bang on the money last year. Poor buggers can't take a break.
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#1212887 - 09/10/2013 11:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14219
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
What I meant was that that they deliberately word their seaonal outlooks and long range forecasts in such a manner so that they can't be pinned down for forecasting something that doesn't happen or not forecasting something that does.

That is an obsevation - not an attack on the BoM.

Meanwhile the Townsville region hasn't seen any cyclonic activity since Yasi.
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#1212893 - 09/10/2013 13:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
There's a big difference between hedging bets and wording things to protect themselves from dickheads that sue them rather than take some responsibility for their own actions, and they have been sued in the past.

The forecasts are based on historical averages. Townsville has been missed for several years in a row at times according to historical tracks. After an active (by CS standards) few years leading up to Yasi there seems to be an expectation by some that it must continue. The CS is one of the quietest basins on earth for cyclone development. It just happens to be the most erratic also.
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#1212894 - 09/10/2013 13:25 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: SBT]
T_D_S Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2013
Posts: 102
Originally Posted By: SBT
What I meant was that that they deliberately word their seaonal outlooks and long range forecasts in such a manner so that they can't be pinned down for forecasting something that doesn't happen or not forecasting something that does.

That is an obsevation - not an attack on the BoM.

Meanwhile the Townsville region hasn't seen any cyclonic activity since Yasi.


Observation??? Be it that, a quip, attack or whatever else, It's wrong! wink
The BOM's "seasonal" outlook is based on climatic factors and therefore will always read as such. They don't deliberately word it that way for the reasons you have suggested, they word it that way because that is how seasonal forecasting works.
They take the broad scale climatic factors and produce a "most likely" scenario from it, no hedging and no dismissing the facts on their behalf to avoid being “pinned down”, they have in the past and will again in the future give a numerical value of expected systems within the AOR based on climate drivers and previous histories.
It will apply only to the broad scale as long range forecasting an impact in any singular location is beyond human-kinds current abilities and will likely remain as such for the foreseeable future.

And you initially suggested that the lack of "cyclonic activity" affecting the Townsville region was abnormal, wrong again... it’s not. And let Yasi be stricken from the record and to most it would look even sadder but it is the way the basin works, 50 years of TC’s passing within 50km of the 'Ville paints one ugly picture if you think we get cyclones here.
Click to reveal..

Granted systems passing beyond this radius do have an effect on us both as cyclones(recently:Yasi) and as weakened rain depressions(recently:Oswald).
If you think this is an attack on you, it isn’t. Read your own signature as it applies to me also, despite some suggesting I am arrogant(laugh) I just have a swift and assertive reaction to bulldust.
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#1213025 - 10/10/2013 13:21 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
GFS models showing a possible low approaching the qld coast in their 16 day forecast.

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#1213113 - 10/10/2013 23:10 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
2nd day in a row its forecast a low out there, has it stalling along way out though.
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#1213125 - 11/10/2013 00:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Let's hope it doesn't eventuate and cross Mick wink

BoM will most likely go for 1 coastal crossing for Qld, 2 up the Top End and 3 out west this season with a total of 14 in the Australian AOR for the season meaning if this one crosses that will be it for the season for QLD ( even if it starts in November) laugh

5 days to go for their forecast but that's my take on a season based on current conditions and BoM playing it safe. grin
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#1213129 - 11/10/2013 00:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7016
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC has a very weak / elongated disturbance moving west towards the end of its run as well. What's also interesting to me is the enormous blocking high (and associated ridge) over the Tasman/Coral Sea that EC has on its outlook charts - I'm sure the cyclone lovers / chasers would kill for that sort of setup towards the heart of the season - but probably not during their supposed storm season lol.

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#1213137 - 11/10/2013 06:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
GFS also has a series of upper troughs effecting that area,I wonder if that will have any effect on it not developing.

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#1213145 - 11/10/2013 09:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Andy Double U]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4135
Loc: El Arish
We had Ergon around our area yesterday trimming trees in preparation for the upcoming season...apparently they already have the word from the BOM that there will be 5 cyclones (by their outlook) form in the Coral sea this year.
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#1213146 - 11/10/2013 10:00 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
And as usual, GFS has dropped the low grin

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#1213163 - 11/10/2013 13:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I think this season will be fairly boring for cyclones. We may get to our average but don't expect anything above that number.
And doubt any will affect anywhere south of mackay.
The main emphasis this year will be on storms. A below average monsoon will occurr to i think.
first Cyclone - I wouldn't expect anything before january.


Edited by paulcirrus (11/10/2013 13:41)
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#1213202 - 11/10/2013 18:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Things]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Things
And as usual, GFS has dropped the low grin

gfs has weakened the low into a westward moving trough system, while ext gfs backs up with another low that follows and stalls. thats too far out though.
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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1213314 - 12/10/2013 13:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2013/14 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
All in allthough it's not a bad sign to see potential lows and washy troughs forming out there on the models this early though. it is only mid Oct after all.

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