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#1214027 - 17/10/2013 21:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G giving NSW a significant rain event next Tuesday 22nd / 23rd Wednesday

Looks promising on viewing tonight
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1214031 - 17/10/2013 21:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Here is the T +150 hrs forecasat for next Wednesday 23rd Oct 2013
Looks like this moisture pool develops from a tropical infeed into NSW from all that activity from the NT lows curently
Going to notice the change in air moisture if this comes off..!


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#1214033 - 17/10/2013 22:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Fingers crossed for next week's rain event. All this wind has been sucking the ground dry. another shocker today, ripping the trees with savagry. even got a sudden and short blast of rain early afternoon.

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#1214039 - 17/10/2013 22:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: crikey]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: crikey
Here is the T +150 hrs forecasat for next Wednesday 23rd Oct 2013
Looks like this moisture pool develops from a tropical infeed into NSW from all that activity from the NT lows curently
Going to notice the change in air moisture if this comes off..!




Looking better for the southern half of NSW than the Sydney area. Hopefully moves it a little further north over time.

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#1214044 - 17/10/2013 23:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1290
Loc: Australia
Can some enlighten me as to why the highs have been pushed south next week compared to the last 3 or so months? Generally that means a wet spell for the east. Maybe the NW win has finished for the season.

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#1214055 - 18/10/2013 08:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Would suggest the AAO a lot to do with it. Worth checking out the thread in General Weather. AAO seems to be in the +ve for now and no sign of heading down again so that combined with the southerly movement you would normally see at this time of year could explain it.

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#1214057 - 18/10/2013 08:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1290
Loc: Australia
Fair enough thankyou, well hopefully this pattern will change with highs down south and we get easterly winds for 3-4 months and rain so the fires don't start up again.

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#1214060 - 18/10/2013 09:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
GFS the only model going for good rain far enough north and coastal enough for the fires, EC and Access seem to like it further south. GFS amounts look very high too BUT - I hope GFS is the closest model to what eventuates. Would save a lot of fire heartache.

The northerly aspect winds over the coming days MAY only push the "Lithgow" fire closer to habitation, ie Bilpin, Berambing, Kurrajong etc. I was heading down the Central Coast this weekend but probably won't now, we usually travel Bells Line.

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#1214063 - 18/10/2013 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: gleno71]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Can some enlighten me as to why the highs have been pushed south next week compared to the last 3 or so months? Generally that means a wet spell for the east. Maybe the NW win has finished for the season.


It is a normal movement around this time of the year and should result in more onshore flows for Sydney from then on.

There is a chance that the temps we have seen around Sydney over the last 4 - 6 weeks could be the highest until next Spring, not impossible and considering the events of yesterday would be most welcome.

Would still like to see the rain trend north mind, still a bit too far south. But it seems the flip in the weather to more normal patterns is coming.

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#1214076 - 18/10/2013 11:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 328
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Canberra AP recorded minus 3.4 at 5:59 this morning. Is that a record for October ?

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#1214079 - 18/10/2013 11:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
danG01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/10/2011
Posts: 138
Yup long term indications are the usual CRAP storm season for Sydney, NOTHING in OCT at all!

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#1214083 - 18/10/2013 12:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice little frost here in Bathurst as well this morning. Not sure the official temp but it would be a negative number once it is officially recorded.

Young had a min of -4.3, Goulburn, Cooma and heaps of other places also strong negative temps overnight.

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#1214084 - 18/10/2013 12:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Dipole]
Teddy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2010
Posts: 339
Loc: Monash, Canberra 625m
Originally Posted By: Dipole
Canberra AP recorded minus 3.4 at 5:59 this morning. Is that a record for October ?


Ross Solly on 666 this morning seemed to think so..
somebody quoted the previous record was back in the 50's

Teddy

Edit Previous record 4th October 1957 it was -3.3C...


Edited by Teddy (18/10/2013 12:14)
Edit Reason: added record details

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#1214091 - 18/10/2013 13:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Both roads across Blue Mountains now closed on Western end. Highway closed between Mt Vic and Hartley, Bells Road closed at Bell to Lithgow plus Darling Causeway (Bell to Mt Vic closed). So no going from here to the coast today. Trains also not running. Line closed between Lithgow & Mt Vic.

Very smoky here now with NE wind.

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#1214098 - 18/10/2013 13:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Dipole]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 213
Was surprised that that was a record for Canberra, would have though Oct would've had a colder morn than that. Especially given the insane minus 8.1 in Cooma...

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#1214099 - 18/10/2013 14:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3696
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Quite a lot of the October records in the Canberra region (e.g. Cooma, Goulburn) were set in 2006, but Canberra missed out in 2006, partly because that was the period where the (now former) site was affected by building works nearby.

From what I've seen, lots of other near-misses but not many records - the only other three I can see at places with 20+ years of data are Tocumwal, Young and Yarrawonga (and the last two only barely make the 20-year criterion). Still an impressively cold night and indicative of how dry the air mass is.

A pity Charlotte Pass isn't reporting at the moment - given the -9 at Perisher they would have had a decent crack at the Australian October record (-12.0).


Edited by Blair Trewin (18/10/2013 14:02)

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#1214113 - 18/10/2013 14:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Blair Trewin]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1866
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
http://www.charlottepass.com.au/weather.html

-6.5 according to the resort weather station.

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#1214180 - 18/10/2013 23:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Smoke! Sunset was the clearest, stillest evening ever. Got up just now and SMOKE incoming. Must be from the north, that direction's all blotted out, like fog. Can smell it though, it's smoke.

Might be the wandanian fire, or anything north, god knows there's plenty of them.

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#1214193 - 19/10/2013 09:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Very smoky here too, I suspect a lot of people can say similar things to us. Will be glad when this smoke eventually clears. May not be for a while in some places.

I just spoke to Drew at Bell and the house is ok but is under constant threat with flare up's and fire creeping closer towards his place, it is very close to him and he has been up many hours watching and reacting.

Apparently on the bad day they had "200 foot" (60 metre) flames all around but luckily it roared just past them and not through them. Threat still very real for them though when the northerlies return.

Looking at the map on the RFS site you can see how the fire separated and went around Bell, it is an unburned island so far, hope it stays that way.

Just thought some of you here may be interested in that info, he mainly posts in winter but is still a part of the WZ community. I suspect he would enjoy a good snowfall right about now. smile

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#1214220 - 19/10/2013 13:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1791
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
Thanks Dave.
I was wondering about Drew.
probably could have just contacted him as you did.
These fires are certainly not over yet!

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