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#1214224 - 19/10/2013 14:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
FNQ Bunyip Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2004
Posts: 1406
Loc: North bank river Daintree
Thanks DaveM , I only dropped into here to check and see if Drew had put a post up.. Tough times in NSW thats for sure..

You keep your eyes open Aslaws , as you say its far from over yet and your side could go up quick aswell ..

Take care all .

Cheers
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#1214230 - 19/10/2013 14:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: FNQ Bunyip]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1791
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
Originally Posted By: FNQ Bunyip
Thanks DaveM , I only dropped into here to check and see if Drew had put a post up.. Tough times in NSW thats for sure..

You keep your eyes open Aslaws , as you say its far from over yet and your side could go up quick aswell ..

Take care all .

Cheers


Don't I know it FNQ Bunyip - hoping for some rain mid-week

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#1214271 - 19/10/2013 19:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2373
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
I'm in the beta stages of adding a new section onto my website which will create a 7-day Precis forecast for any location using data from MetEye and ADFD. Regardless of whether there is a forecast issued in the location by the BOM.

I've created a beta page for New South Wales here: http://aspgweather.com/BOM/NSW/

It includes 7-day Precis forecasts for 200 locations in NSW using data from the ADFD model.

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#1214310 - 20/10/2013 08:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DaveM]
Harmony Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2008
Posts: 276
Loc: Faulconbridge
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Very smoky here too, I suspect a lot of people can say similar things to us. Will be glad when this smoke eventually clears. May not be for a while in some places.

I just spoke to Drew at Bell and the house is ok but is under constant threat with flare up's and fire creeping closer towards his place, it is very close to him and he has been up many hours watching and reacting.

Apparently on the bad day they had "200 foot" (60 metre) flames all around but luckily it roared just past them and not through them. Threat still very real for them though when the northerlies return.

Looking at the map on the RFS site you can see how the fire separated and went around Bell, it is an unburned island so far, hope it stays that way.

Just thought some of you here may be interested in that info, he mainly posts in winter but is still a part of the WZ community. I suspect he would enjoy a good snowfall right about now. smile


Thanks for the update on Drew DaveM. I worked the fire channel yesterday at VKG & was thinking about him & hoping him & his family were safe.

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#1214312 - 20/10/2013 08:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Harmony]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Difficult few days coming up for NSW. 35c predicted for the west today and 38c tomorrow. Winds not as strong as last Sunday or Thursday but with so many fires burning that doesn't matter.

Also as feared the 'rain event' for next weeks looks weaker and still south. I think the change will bring some showers, some possibly heavy, but not the region wide soaking we were all hoping for. The moisture in feed from the NW isn't as strong as it could be on this one. I noticed the weather channel people were down grading their rain forecasts for next week also.

Having said that some models are still keen on a flip to wet onshore wind conditions, but then they have for a while out in the longer range,


Edited by Jon77 (20/10/2013 08:39)

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#1214322 - 20/10/2013 10:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1290
Loc: Australia
I wonder how the temps in Sydney will reach 38 if there's no strong wind associated with them, that dosent make sense, hope fully it dosent get that hot.
Sadly this time of year it rarely rains in the east with the exception of the odd rare east coast low, or from thunderstorms.
A lot of people saying we are in for a hot summer, see how it pans out.

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#1214323 - 20/10/2013 10:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The 'BOM' and 'US 16 Day' models on this site seem to show a 'flip' to a more Easterly regime towards the end of the month, with the highs South of the Continent and troughs in the Tasman Sea bringing more humid conditions and some rain. Good news for those in bushfire prone areas in Eastern NSW if it works out that way.

It is entirely possible that the 37.3 degrees recorded at Observatory Hill on October 10 will be the hottest day of the 2013/14 Summer / 'Warm Season' at that site, although that is less likely away from the coast. For example, the hottest day at Observatory Hill in Calendar 2008 occurred in October. It is even possible that near the coast, October will turn out to be hotter than November or even December in terms of maximum temperatures. This happened at Observatory Hill in 2007 and nearly in 2006. A cooldown in late Spring or early Summer after Easterlies become established is not uncommon.

I note that the 28 Day Rainfall forecast is now showing some green for nearly every day in the coming four weeks, which I believe implies that persistently humid conditions are expected. Using assumptions regarding probabilities meant by 'low', 'medium' and 'high', I think it is suggesting measurable rain on 14 of the next 28 days in Sydney, and similar results for adjacent regions.

Anyway, the weather will always do whatever it's going to do. Best wishes for those in bushfire-prone areas, I hope relief comes soon.

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#1214329 - 20/10/2013 12:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The 'BOM' and 'US 16 Day' models on this site seem to show a 'flip' to a more Easterly regime towards the end of the month, with the highs South of the Continent and troughs in the Tasman Sea bringing more humid conditions and some rain. Good news for those in bushfire prone areas in Eastern NSW if it works out that way.

It is entirely possible that the 37.3 degrees recorded at Observatory Hill on October 10 will be the hottest day of the 2013/14 Summer / 'Warm Season' at that site, although that is less likely away from the coast. For example, the hottest day at Observatory Hill in Calendar 2008 occurred in October. It is even possible that near the coast, October will turn out to be hotter than November or even December in terms of maximum temperatures. This happened at Observatory Hill in 2007 and nearly in 2006. A cooldown in late Spring or early Summer after Easterlies become established is not uncommon.

I note that the 28 Day Rainfall forecast is now showing some green for nearly every day in the coming four weeks, which I believe implies that persistently humid conditions are expected. Using assumptions regarding probabilities meant by 'low', 'medium' and 'high', I think it is suggesting measurable rain on 14 of the next 28 days in Sydney, and similar results for adjacent regions.

Anyway, the weather will always do whatever it's going to do. Best wishes for those in bushfire-prone areas, I hope relief comes soon.


Anything on the models past +t144 isn't so reliable as we know and the models were showing a flip should have already happened by now if we believed them a few weeks ago. A few days back it looked like some good rain wa son the way for next week, that has been pushed back.

Does seem reasonable suggestion that a pattern flip is on the way but until that is well within the t144 range I will remain very cautious. It reminds me of when they get a really cold winter in the UK, the models always try and revert back to the westerly zonal default pattern. I was in the UK for the cold winter of 2009/10 and every week a break down was in the models post +t144 but never actually happened for 2 months!

I hope this isn't the same game and that the flip does work its way through to eventuating.


Edited by Jon77 (20/10/2013 12:16)

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#1214330 - 20/10/2013 12:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: gleno71]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I wonder how the temps in Sydney will reach 38 if there's no strong wind associated with them, that dosent make sense, hope fully it dosent get that hot.
Sadly this time of year it rarely rains in the east with the exception of the odd rare east coast low, or from thunderstorms.
A lot of people saying we are in for a hot summer, see how it pans out.


The west of Sydney will probably push 38c, much cooler towards the east / obs hill won't get anywhere near that.

Personally I think we could be in for a wet / cool summer, wouldn't surprise me.


Edited by Jon77 (20/10/2013 12:19)

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#1214339 - 20/10/2013 14:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1141
Loc: Canberra
Hope so, had enough of these near-record temperatures
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#1214341 - 20/10/2013 14:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
AAO is so forecast to start heading back into negative territory in the next few days, so wondering good if that will have an impact on the progression of the highs...

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#1214345 - 20/10/2013 14:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
The ensembled versions of various models including FIM have also been hinting (for a couple of weeks now) the chance of a wet signal for parts of NSW towards the end of this month. The probabilities and location of it has varied depending on the model though. Here's the NCEP ensemble's suggestion for probabilities of total precip greater than 25mm during the Week 2 forecast period (26th Oct to 2nd Nov) using the last 3 consecutive runs:


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#1214354 - 20/10/2013 17:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: KevD]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2699
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Bello Boy
AAO is so forecast to start heading back into negative territory in the next few days, so wondering good if that will have an impact on the progression of the highs...


Is there typically a lag between the SAM going positive(negative) and a change in weather patterns?

I reckon the forecast will flip back towards positive territory soon, nothing in the long range models that looks anything like a negative SAM.

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#1214363 - 20/10/2013 18:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Some decent instability coming up for some southern parts of NSW/ACT early this week before it shifts further east by midweek. Low level convergence near the VIC/NSW border between the S to SE'lies and the N to NW'lies near the trough should help as well as strong shear.... although extensive cloud cover in the south and the stronger forcing from the mid/upper levels not arriving til later in the period might be a bit of an issue early on. Here's the latest output from my script for Mon anyway:

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7401/10374778146_73b3dff360_z.jpg

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#1214364 - 20/10/2013 20:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It was a weird looking day in Sydney. Fresh sea breezes kept the smoke and heat at bay in the East, but the cloudless sky gradually filled with smoke. The sky was a strange pale blue early this afternoon, later white and then brown. The sun turned orange and then as it neared the horizon, blood red. This is the view 80 KM from the fires.


Bushfire Sunset by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

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#1214370 - 20/10/2013 21:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
We had a welcome (for once) NW/W wind spring up this arvo, and it blew the smoke away for a while, the sky was blue again, and eyes stopped stinging. Wind dropped at sunset though, so anything could happen.

I guess a bit of smoke is better than what those poor buggers north of here are dealing with. They must be watching the forecast with horror. any rain going there would be wonderful, and an easterly change would raise the humidity and maybe mitigate those explosive fires which currently are like an impossible force.

Exetel still stuffed. Anyone thinking of churning to them, keep looking. 6 days...

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#1214373 - 20/10/2013 22:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
Little bit of Instability around Wagga for Monday / tuesday. Anyone wanna chat about it?

Im a bit skeptical of it being much good for photography as its going to be a little bit overcast. Any lightning will probably be rather embedded. I doubt there will be anything isolated frown Agreed?
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#1214385 - 21/10/2013 10:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Here's the latest output from my thunderstorm script for the rest of today. It's still suggesting a big decent blotch over southern NSW:


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#1214389 - 21/10/2013 11:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
While not from NSW i certainly hope you guys get the rain needed as we have had enough of it here in SA

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#1214398 - 21/10/2013 13:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: rstewart84]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Looking at the radar looks like the Springwood fire is going active again, some bright returns just jumped on the radar from that area.

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