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#1205752 - 30/07/2013 17:51 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Only 0.3mm this side of town. Another ridiculous maximum in the city today...below 15 here at home and the all the other metro sites (Avalon not a metro site is it?)

Possible cold not looking as cold Friday and Saturday, EC has a follow up front whizzing along Saturday after Fridays one that might keep the precip going.

Looks like a wild westerly pattern after that, going to be pretty warm in NSW coastal areas and probably Gippsland you'd think. Should be some embedded fronts to give southern and coastal areas a shower chance every second day or so.

Meanwhile frosty tonight, will be a bit of an adjustment after the mild nights in the last few days.
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#1205762 - 30/07/2013 19:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heard we had 3mm rain here in Maffra over the past couple of days. Mines still brewing soup in the gauge, been dark when I've been home this week so havent emptied it yet.

No comment on the weekends weather - because Ruckle has nailed it as usual.

Winds this time of year = no frosts (good for the morning commute) = hard golf (bad for Petros's handicap).

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#1205838 - 31/07/2013 14:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
im heading down to ole melbourne town tonight. was hoping to get some cold weather action. looks like i missed the best of it 2 weekends ago, but i will take fridays front and rain nicely. and should be cold but mostly fine for the big game at the G on sunday evening.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1205961 - 01/08/2013 17:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Exciting and active kind of pattern looming, models all over the place as it looks like a fair bit about and so a few different scenario's about. Short term is tomorrows front and follow up Saturday pm. Maybe we should start a thread for that, and perhaps by Sunday models will have the following period clarified?
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#1209722 - 10/09/2013 18:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G indicating 2 big rain systems for the south east of OZ.
Looking spectacular atm
First system this Thursday/Friday . A 2 day event moving slowly across the state.
ACCESS suggesting a sure 20mm for Dunolly. The Mallee looks to do well

2nd system not far after on Monday 16th sept. A massive wet system a farmers joy giving rain up into west QLD and across NSW
, SA and VIC.

We could get a follow up 20mm
Making a total of 40mm in the next 7 days

THe ants here have been building hills for a few weeks.
So in expectation.. Expecting a dumping..

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1209724 - 10/09/2013 18:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We've got ants making mini-volcanoes here at Maffra and also at Moe I notice Sunday playing golf. I think you are onto something Crikey, and so does CMC!!


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Please consider starting a thread for the following system early next week!

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#1209799 - 11/09/2013 18:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still excited about rain possibilities for SE Vic next week.....
[edit] - Crikey, if you think its all still a possibility, I invite you to start a thread for it smile


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Edited by Petros (11/09/2013 18:23)

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#1211010 - 21/09/2013 20:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G suggesting a couple of nice looking rainbands from kinks in the westerly belt this week
Around late Wednesday into morning of the 25th Thursday and late Friday the 27th September at this stage

Its spring so good chance of storms with these moist looking bands

Here is the possibility



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (21/09/2013 20:22)
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#1212694 - 06/10/2013 18:13 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I see that GFS has a heat low to form on the WA coast near Pt Headland Monday week. Very unusual IMO - but anyone, please correct me if I'm wrong.

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#1212703 - 07/10/2013 07:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
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Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2851
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Interesting Petros! Warm lows are the result of intense heating and are known to form in north Western Australia. Port Hedland has had a week of very high 30's and one over 40c. It is very early in the year to have such hot weather. So a warm low, which is not unusual in itself for that part of the country, although from what I can recall they don't occur often, is unusual in my opinion for its timing. Anyone may feel free to correct me if I am wrong. We lived in Port Hedland over ten years ago now and the memories are a little dim. They could be in for some very nice thunderstorms.


Edited by Gabby (07/10/2013 07:33)

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#1212753 - 07/10/2013 18:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Who better than an ex resident to comment! Thanks Gabby smile I had an inkling it (would/may) be a bit unsual for this time of the year if it comes to play.

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#1213542 - 14/10/2013 11:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
having a look at the BSCH forcast and I'm hoping next monday pays off.... Even considering a chase if I can gather the funds for fuel. Wishful thinking says it remains the same but it is a week out.

I sure hope it is a sign for things to come.
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#1213566 - 14/10/2013 12:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Dawoodman]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: dawoodman
having a look at the BSCH forcast and I'm hoping next monday pays off.... Even considering a chase if I can gather the funds for fuel. Wishful thinking says it remains the same but it is a week out.

I sure hope it is a sign for things to come.


I sure do hope so too, and hopefully (after checking the latest seven-day synoptic pattern for Weatherzone) there'll be another round of severe thunderstorm action in store for Victoria (and into South Australia) later that week, and into the weekend of October 26-27. It would be awesome if it could be timed for my trip to Adelaide during that weekend, even though I won't be able to chase, due to time constraints as I have a family reunion there that weekend and because I haven't got my own set of wheels, not to mention my own license poke I'm hitching a ride with some relatives on the way there and returning to Melbourne by air... hey that rhymes! (I'm a poet and I didn't even know it haha) grin

But after seeing the latest synoptic chart for Sunday it looks like behind the system that's likely to impact Victoria early next week, another similar system (including inland heat, a trough, and a cold front) looks likely to be getting ready to take shape over Western Australia at the same time, and I'm watching it really carefully now in the lead-up to my trip, so fingers crossed! But in the meantime, first this current cold outbreak, then the cold front later this week, and then the possible storm outbreak for early next week! smile Still waiting for Melbourne's first 30C+ day btw...

Really hoping that the battle between Outback heat, tropical moisture, and Antarctic cold air is about to really go into overdrive now and finally, FINALLY get the Storm Season swinging into action! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (14/10/2013 12:51)

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#1213610 - 14/10/2013 19:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
... and meanwhile Crikey has identified that the change overnight this Wednesday/Thursday could be more interesting than we all thought!!

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#1213641 - 14/10/2013 21:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has weakened the rainband tonight Petros for Wednesday night Thursday .

Suggesting curently for southern coastal areas only.
BUT
The gradient winds (1km) . Indicating a very sharp wind change line at 1km altitude
Looks like a very interesting feature so a chance of a storm line perhaps ( dry storms maybe?)
Not sure.. But find this feature posted below interesting



Tomorrows forecast should confirm things a bit more hopefully
Looks like its a cold front with some cold airmass crossing VIC behind the change on Thursday.
Some more snow for the alps once again this week

5mm of snow for Mt buller in the past 12 hrs. Only minus 1.9 deg c there now
Melbourne had wind chill of 5 deg c l believe as noted on weather news tonight


Edited by crikey (14/10/2013 21:46)
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#1213735 - 15/10/2013 19:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The latest Thursday forecast for my area mentions the chance of thunder:

Thursday 17 OctoberCloudy. Showers, becoming less widespread during the evening. Snow showers above 1100 metres. The chance of hail and thunder with gusty winds from the late morning. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h before dawn. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 18.

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#1214814 - 23/10/2013 17:51 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
BSCH 00z run has an interesting forecast for the 30th and 31st of october..... way to far out to call anything, but I'll keep a watch on it, after the recent lack of storms in melbourne, it doesn't take much to get me excited grin
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#1214816 - 23/10/2013 17:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Dawoodman]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: dawoodman
BSCH 00z run has an interesting forecast for the 30th and 31st of october..... way to far out to call anything, but I'll keep a watch on it, after the recent lack of storms in melbourne, it doesn't take much to get me excited grin


Same here Dawoodman, it looks intense but still too early to know for certain at this stage but I'm monitoring it closely too and hope it comes off, especially for the Melbourne area! smile

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#1214830 - 23/10/2013 18:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7361
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This is probably what you blokes are referring to?:



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Start a thread! It dosent matter if the system doesnt eventuate, with an active thread it give us all a chance to learn the skill of the various models and learn from the posts of others.

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#1214836 - 23/10/2013 19:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Monday 28th looks more interesting in that its been hinted at on a few models for a few runs and looks pretty good right now.
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