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#1216234 - 02/11/2013 10:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2162
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Well they must be burning off or it's the left overs smoke from the fires to the west because the smoke here on the northern beaches is the worst it's been since all this started. I cant even see the headland or ocean which is less than a km away. In fact visibility would be down to about a few 100 meters.

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#1216240 - 02/11/2013 10:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 875
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Originally Posted By: Homer


Not sure whether the fires are all out yet but it has been a relief over the past two days to see the smoke gone from Sydney.
It truly has been awful.

Homer


Not out by a long shot Homer but I bet it has been wonderful to have had some clear air smile

I saw on the RFS facebook page yesterday they were warning of large plumes of smoke from the fires near Mt Lagoon/north of Bells Line - west of Glossodia and Howes Swamp/Putty Road as they burnt out areas within containment lines and this morning all my Sydney and Central coast friends are complaining of smoke again. Each day that passes should get better, but parts of those fires will continue to smoke long after all the edges are blacked in and they no longer need to patrol them.

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#1216275 - 02/11/2013 13:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1445
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
A lot of cumulus clouds have developed around here,hope they develop further into something,very warm and sunny at the moment, with a light NW wind blowing.

http://www.freewebs.com/supercell1/
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#1216276 - 02/11/2013 13:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It looks like the anemometer at Fort Denison (shown in readings for Sydney - Observatory Hill) has been broken for several days. Surely the BOM has a spared anemometer that they could whack in, even if they have to send someone on a short boat trip to do so.

I see the smoke haze over Sydney has returned, although I expect that the sea breeze is clearing the lower layers: http://www.sydney-webcam.com/index.php?nav=cam3

Sunny with high cloud and very warm in Mayfield in Newcastle's West, with no smoke.

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#1216306 - 02/11/2013 18:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Hope things don't too nasty for you folks on Sunday re the elevated fire dangers.

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#1216350 - 03/11/2013 08:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
The wet signal over eastern NSW for end of Oct/early Nov that ensembles have been hinting at for some weeks looks like it might ramp up further during the 2nd week of this month (from the end of this week).

Here's the latest offering from the FIM model and the NCEP ensemble. Still early days though so the areas & amounts might change between now & then:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5542/10633428004_12ca6f7acd_b.jpg

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5539/10619838113_3f98c051ea_z.jpg




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#1216354 - 03/11/2013 09:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Unfortunately those models have shown a good chance of rain for some time now, and it just keeps getting pushed back further and further. Like a mirage in the desert, it never seems to arrive. I'm aware those are "probability" maps and therefore can only be used as a guide, but it's still a tease.

Having said this, OCF's rain probabilities are looking better- will have to be within 3 days though before I am confident.



Edited by HumphreyBear (03/11/2013 09:29)

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#1216355 - 03/11/2013 09:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: HumphreyBear]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
Unfortunately those models have shown a good chance of rain for some time now, and it just keeps getting pushed back further and further.

They were going for a wet signal for parts of eastern NSW starting from the end of last month and that's pretty much what happened

i.e. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=history%2Fns%2F2013102920131029&step=3&map=totals&period=daily&area=ns

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#1216357 - 03/11/2013 09:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Back to sydney for a week today. Gotta love it.

we finally got our first storm of the wet friday night in Townsville. It was incredible. 105mm recorded here in little over an hour.
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#1216359 - 03/11/2013 10:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Yes there were some good falls with those storms, but unfortunately most of eastern NSW (as that BOM map shows) missed out. Even within that green area of 25 mm+ there was some variation, being a thunderstorm outbreak rather than a general rain event. I guess those charts, being an indication of total precipitation only, can't always distinguish between a good thunderstorm outbreak and a widespread rain event- the latter is what we desperately need.

Anyway thanks for providing your charts and scripts, they are a great addition to our arsenal of forecasting tools.

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#1216364 - 03/11/2013 10:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney's forecast, updated at 9:14 am, is not terribly informative: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml?ref=hdr

"Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h shifting gusty south to southeasterly 35 to 50 km/h in the afternoon..."

Sunset in Sydney today is 7:24 PM. So according to the BOM, Sydney's weather will undergo a drastic change some time between 3 and 10 hours after the time that the forecast was issued. Not very useful for anyone planning a day outdoors. Further, anyone not familiar with Sydney's weather, specifically Southerly changes, would not recognise that. They would just take it that is was going to be a hot, partly cloudy, fairly windy day with poor air quality and possibly a bit of rain tonight.

Surely the BOM can do better than that.

P.S. the change reached Moruya Airport at about 9:30 so it is probably not going to reach Sydney until about 4:00PM or later.

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#1216369 - 03/11/2013 11:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: HumphreyBear]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
Yes there were some good falls with those storms, but unfortunately most of eastern NSW (as that BOM map shows) missed out. Even within that green area of 25 mm+ there was some variation, being a thunderstorm outbreak rather than a general rain event. I guess those charts, being an indication of total precipitation only, can't always distinguish between a good thunderstorm outbreak and a widespread rain event- the latter is what we desperately need.

Anyway thanks for providing your charts and scripts, they are a great addition to our arsenal of forecasting tools.



Agreed. A look at the extended bom model over the last few days shows the variability at the moment. Yesterday there was a deep low just north of the NSW / Vic border with associated very heavy rain mainly south of Sydney, this was for later next week.

Today we have a more general easterly flow with associated rainfall up and down the NSW coast for late next week with a low cell a little further north.

Not convinced that the instability that was forecast for late Oct / early Nov eventuated as the models were suggesting, not for Sydney anyway. Well not unless you live in Fairlight near Manly. Localised isolated coastal thunderstorms does not a rain event make regardless of how people bend this to fit their medium range forecast of wide scale instability.

Hopefully this next one delivers the goods but I consider a separate event to the forecast of rain for the last week of Oct / first week of Nov for eastern NSW.


Edited by Jon77 (03/11/2013 12:04)

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#1216373 - 03/11/2013 12:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Originally Posted By: Jon77
Not convinced that the instability that was forecast for late Oct / early Nov eventuated as the models were suggesting, not for Sydney anyway. Well not unless you live in Fairlight near Manly. Localised isolated coastal thunderstorms does not a rain event make regardless of how people bend this to fit their medium range forecast of wide scale instability.

Are you referring to me? This was a post I made back on the 21st Oct:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...y_e#Post1214388

Unless you live in a cave, there were was a remarkably widespread outbreak of thunderstorms, many severe, across the northeastern third of NSW on Tue - see:
http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/1872404/mega-gallery-hail-storm-hits-tamworth/?cs=157
http://www.portnews.com.au/story/1872370/photos-all-hail-the-weather-gods/?cs=257
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR692-namoi/2013-10-28-23/2013-10-29-06
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR713-sydney-terrey-hills/2013-10-29-01/2013-10-29-10
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR043-newcastle/2013-10-28-20/2013-10-29-17
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR692-namoi/2013-10-28-23/2013-10-29-06

Just because Sydney city itself didn't get much from it, doesn't mean the rest of the state was dry as well. Even though the rainfall was convective & lumpy as is the case with most thunderstorm events, it wasn't like none of this counts at all towards a wet signal. Thunderstorms and wet signals are NOT mutually exclusive. Nor does a wet signal have to equal 1000mm. I'm pretty sure the falls were welcomed by many people and are far better than nothing at all. As I also mentioned in my post, I didn't say the wet signal would end at the end of October.

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#1216379 - 03/11/2013 14:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
I wouldn't class one storm event as a widespread wet signal, I think that's what people are getting at. The ensemble script can't differentiate between a rain even and a storm day that produces hit and miss results. 10km can be the difference between 0mm and 25mm when the "wet signal" is storms.

What this "wet signal" was, was one storm day in the middle of a bunch of dry days that look like continuing until at least next weekend.

PS

I don't have anything against the ensembles you post, they are the only reason i still lurk the forums.


Edited by Enrique (03/11/2013 14:49)

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#1216381 - 03/11/2013 15:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Thanks Enrique. My point still stands though. A wet signal is what it means - a *wet* signal. It doesn't always have to be comprised of steady long duration rain from stratiform clouds. At the end of the day, it's the extent and amounts of rain that reach the ground that counts towards any such signal whether that be from widespread thunderstorms or long duration steady rain. It also doesn't have to be comprised of just one event. Hence the "towards the end of this month or early next month" in my original post.

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#1216382 - 03/11/2013 15:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1866
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
... and back to the present for now.

Like an aggressive malignant cancer, the cold southerly has spread into the southern parts of Sydney now. Very cold too by the looks of it. Bellambi dropped more than 10 degrees in less than 30 minutes after the southerly blew through.

I guess I have another hour to enjoy the warmth up this way.

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#1216384 - 03/11/2013 15:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Tom1234 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/04/2011
Posts: 1709
Loc: Port Stephens
For sure,you are right that it did show the precipitation correctly and that could be classed as a "wet signal". I just think it's the term "wet signal" that is confusing and perhaps open to interpretation and that's why people disagree. It's not the quality and accuracy of the ensemble that is up for debate, at least from me anyway, they tend to be on the money.

Some people, especially us on the east coast see a wet signal as sustained rain that drags on for weeks/months, just because that's what we're used to. For now at least it looks like we are still in a mostly dry spring pattern, my money has been on January as being when we will see a proper shift to wet dominant.

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#1216389 - 03/11/2013 15:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3588
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Southerly dropped Sydney Airport by 12 degrees in under half an hour.

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#1216398 - 03/11/2013 17:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Those 76kmhr gusts were not fun landing in.
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#1216402 - 03/11/2013 18:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
The southerly came through here at 4.25pm, not a sign of any cloud, dropped the temp about 10c in a half an hour.

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