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#1421452 - 12/04/2017 13:38 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
RichieM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/08/2015
Posts: 82
Loc: Manunda, Cairns
NZ preparing for perfect storm conditions as TC Cook and a Tasman Sea low set to collide over the whole country which has already been hammered by the remnants of TC Debbie last week.

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#1421514 - 13/04/2017 11:55 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: RichieM]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: RichieM
NZ preparing for perfect storm conditions as TC Cook and a Tasman Sea low set to collide over the whole country which has already been hammered by the remnants of TC Debbie last week.


Can't believe there hasn't been more discussion about this.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/cycl...gfYrC&ocid=iehp

Heavy downpours, gale force winds of 150 kph and storm surges up to five metres are predicted to batter the east coast

Evacuations of low-lying areas on the east coast of the North Island are under way, with power outages, fallen trees and roofs lifting off homes possible, according to the MetService, as well as widespread and “significant” flooding across the entire North Island.

A month’s worth of rain is expected to fall in the space of a day on the east coast, with the ground already sodden and covered in up to a metre of mud and debris.

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#1421518 - 13/04/2017 12:33 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Bay of Plenty looks like it will get absolutely hammered, as well as the Corromandel Peninsula.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1421534 - 13/04/2017 18:50 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2903
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Amazing nobody is here commenting, spoke to a mate in Wellington, the collective country must have kicked a black cat, dog or something. No real summer, rain, wind, cold, bloody big earthquakes, geez, no wonder ABS has kiwis moving in. Interesting next 24hrs.

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#1421538 - 13/04/2017 20:05 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2114
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Amazing nobody is here commenting, spoke to a mate in Wellington, the collective country must have kicked a black cat, dog or something. No real summer, rain, wind, cold, bloody big earthquakes, geez, no wonder ABS has kiwis moving in. Interesting next 24hrs.


I was wondering too. Maybe they're in a mad scramble to cope with it? while still recovering from ex-Debbie.

It intrigues me that more of the "avid" cyclone watchers for Au don't follow the ex-TC further than our own shores. I find them fascinating, especially when they arrive in NZ still capable of major damage.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm | September: nil | October: 49mm | November: 86mm
-------
YTD: 1161.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1421564 - 14/04/2017 23:14 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2114
Loc: Chillagoe
For anyone interested in NZ and TC Cook, there's a thread here:
https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=2624811

Still getting over ex-Debbie, now they've got this.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11838356


Edited by cold@28 (14/04/2017 23:20)
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm | September: nil | October: 49mm | November: 86mm
-------
YTD: 1161.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1421980 - 22/04/2017 20:24 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Coming in rather late on this - I'm currently travelling in the North Island of NZ, and arrived on the evening before TC Cook. It tracked on a path 50-100km further east than originally forecast, which turned out to be critical as it took Auckland (which ended up getting no significant winds at all) out of the firing line, with the main focus of severe winds being the eastern Bay of Plenty (209 km/h at White Island) through to Hawke's Bay. Rainfall totals with Cook were also generally not extreme as the system moved quickly - the remnants of Debbie were a far more productive rain producer.

The two systems came on top of a very wet March in places, and there is a lot of water around, and numerous small landslides ('slips' in local parlance). To give one example, Rotorua has had 445mm in the last 30 days.

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#1422207 - 26/04/2017 09:22 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1834
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Just looking at windytv, huge rotating low due east of the north isle of NZ, any ideas ?

https://www.windytv.com/?pressure,-34.597,145.371,3
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-87mm Nov-19.5mm to 0800 19th

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#1427658 - 08/07/2017 11:40 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
The first real polar blast of the year here in the South Island due overnight Tuesday through to Thursday, some impressive numbers being grown up by a local forecaster - time to start getting excited for some white stuff!!

Snow Forecast for Canterbury High Country and Plains:

Expect a very cold southwesterly change to spread north late in the day on Tuesday with a period of rain and snow initially lowering to 200m. From Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday morning expect frequent showers with snow to near sea level at times. Expect 20-30cm accumulating above 200m, with 30-50cm possible above 400m. A few cm may accumulate on the ground near sea level at times in heavy showers.

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#1427709 - 09/07/2017 17:14 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5285
Loc: Dural
Sounds exciting Pete.

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#1427745 - 10/07/2017 12:40 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
It sure does look cold with 850hpa temps around the -6 to -7 mark for the eastern South Island. Looks like the change is coming from the south maybe even a bit SE.

Pete, is it unusual to get very cold changes from the S to SE in NZ? Just wondering because I would have expected that the latitude would only really allow a pretty constant westerly air stream in winter. But I don't know much about New Zealand's weather.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427748 - 10/07/2017 13:18 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Hey Wave Rider, yes it is unusual but certainly not unheard of, introduce the influence of a low pressure system situated to the east of the south island (or even north in this case as per the attached picture) and it can change the windflow from a SW to a southerly or even SE. You will never get anymore then 10-15cm of snow in a SW airflow, all the huge snowfalls of the past 30 years over 30cm have all come from a more SE direction.

Sleet now predicted for Christchurch with now in the hill suburbs, places like Hanmer Springs, Methven are all now expecting between 30-50cm. I;m headed up to Hanmer Springs myself tomorrow so will try and take some pictures and post it on here when I get back!


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#1427756 - 10/07/2017 16:22 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Thanks for the answer and associated pic. That would make sense that your area could only get heavy snow in these S/SE as the wind is coming off the ocean. Same thing happens in the eastern ranges here. Places like Bowral and Moss Vale etc generally only see snow in a setup like what you're getting.

Dearly hoping to see some pics of this event from you!!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1427798 - 11/07/2017 09:38 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9829
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Have fun Pete smile

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#1427825 - 11/07/2017 14:45 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Just arrived in Hanmer Springs where it is deceivingly mild - by this time Thursday will be under 60-90cm of snow...
[/img]

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#1427827 - 11/07/2017 15:04 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I'm so jealous!! This is will be such a great event

Some suburbs in Dunedin that get up to 200+ metres should see tonnes of snow as well as the hill suburbs of Wellington. Christchurch is mostly very low so will be touch and go there.

Please keep us updated, I'm sure many people would be interested in this even if they are not posting here.


Edited by Wave Rider (11/07/2017 15:05)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1427868 - 12/07/2017 10:14 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Reports of sea level snow at Dunedin early this morning.
http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&p=168985#p168985
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1427892 - 12/07/2017 17:53 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I think Pete will be disappointed with the snow at Hamner Springs.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1427917 - 13/07/2017 08:54 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Yes it had been a fair bit less then anticipated, the moisture levels were down so we probably received between 15-20cm in total which is around a third of what was expected - oh well it is still beautiful up here!!



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#1427927 - 13/07/2017 09:49 Re: New Zealand Weather [Re: Willoughby]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Great capture. Tbh I reckon the predicted falls would've been inconvenient if you wanted to walk around and look at the snow for example.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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