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#1216111 - 01/11/2013 20:05 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
Link to HKO Tropical Cyclone Warnings:
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm?20131101143449

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#1216330 - 02/11/2013 21:02 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
TY 1329 (KROSA)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 November 2013
Analyses at 02/09 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°00'(20.0°) E115°05'(115.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM) S220km(120NM)

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#1216431 - 04/11/2013 02:00 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
Tropical Cyclone Warnings

Bulletin issued at 22:55 HKT 03/Nov/2013
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

All signals were cancelled at 10:50 p.m.

At 11 p.m., Tropical Storm Krosa was centred about 270 kilometres south of Hong Kong (near 19.9 degrees north 114.0 degrees east) and is forecast to move southwestward gradually, across the seas east of Hainan Island at about 25 kilometres per hour later and weaken gradually.

Krosa moved further away from Hong Kong and weakened during the past few hours.

Locally, under the influence of a replenishment of the northeast monsoon, it will still be rather windy offshore with swells tomorrow. The public should stay on the alert.

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#1216521 - 04/11/2013 22:12 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
JMA has started issuing advisories for a new system today
This will hit the Philippines first, and continue across the South China sea towards Vietnam

JTWC has forecast this system to be very intense

JMA link is: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1330c.html

TS 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 10:00 UTC, 4 November 2013
Analyses at 04/09 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°10'(6.2°) E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)

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#1216562 - 05/11/2013 11:21 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Looks like another 100+ knot system.
NOAA have the system at 130 Knots in 72hrs time.

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#1216585 - 05/11/2013 15:52 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looks fairly large too
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#1216604 - 05/11/2013 17:41 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
Haiyan is a major system and will pose a serious threat to the Philippines and Vietnam coastlines.

I am surprised to see a typhoon of this intensity so late in the year during November.

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#1216619 - 05/11/2013 20:02 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
psychlonique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Annandale Qld
Admittedly I don't really watch this thread but the sheer number of typhoons in the last couple of weeks has had me intrigued. Is that an unusual number in this area for this time of year?

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#1216642 - 05/11/2013 22:37 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: psychlonique]
LightningGus Offline
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Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1207
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Originally Posted By: psychlonique
Admittedly I don't really watch this thread but the sheer number of typhoons in the last couple of weeks has had me intrigued. Is that an unusual number in this area for this time of year?

Yeah definitely psychlonique, look at the last few years and the number of typhoons in the northern pacific usually starts to drop by late September/October and there is usually only 1 or 2 weak storms in November or December. But if you look at this year, strong typhoons were forming almost constantly in October and now into November.
2013 Pacific Typhoon Season
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2017 Rainfall: 715mm
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#1216647 - 05/11/2013 23:28 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
I remember that 1964 and 1970 were bad years for typhoons with typhoon activity occurring almost for the entire year.

So, there has been occurrences of similar activity in the past (at least with the timing). For whatever reason sometimes in the Northern Pacific the typhoon season can be very active.

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#1216649 - 05/11/2013 23:50 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2158
Loc: 中国上૲...
Typhoon Haiyan is going to cause significant problems in the Philippines. The sad truth is - there will be casualties.
JMA forecasts Philippines landfall with about 945HPa.

STS 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 5 November 2013
Analyses at 05/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°55'(6.9°) E143°05'(143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

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#1216704 - 06/11/2013 10:44 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4478
Loc: Brisbane
The current path seems like it will take Haiyan directly over the city of Tacloban potentially at close to Cat 5 status.

Currently Haiyan looks amazing on Sat pic and I'd be surprised if its not already close to Cat 5.

This could be quite nasty.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1216714 - 06/11/2013 11:30 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Locke]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4180
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
I am also surprised how active the Typhoon season has been in the Western Pacific this year. It has been very interesting to watch the season unfold.

Typhoon Haiyan looks nasty alright and has intensified so rapidly. Some forecast suggest the sustained winds may peak around 160mph (Cat 5) before making landfall in the Central Philippines.

I hope everyone will stay safe.



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2017- 2190.0mm
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#1216720 - 06/11/2013 13:22 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Hurricane force]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
WDPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTHEAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, 6-NM PINHOLE EYE (THE SYSTEM HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 50 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS TO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE.
A 051819Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL 60-NM CORE WITH A
BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 31W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA, SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 60
OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. TY 31W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA NEAR A 115 KNOT INTENSITY. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SST AND ENCOUNTERS LAND.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN



_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1216731 - 06/11/2013 14:52 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Typhoon Haiyan sure does look nice in the satellite images. On the ground would sadly be another matter though.

I receive hourly images from MT-Sat and they are here...
http://www.bellmereweather.net/SatPics-MtSat.asp

You can click on one of the world images towards the bottom of the screen to get a nice large view. Only Aussie images are animated at the moment, but I am working on the world images.
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GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1216741 - 06/11/2013 16:53 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: pabloako]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Typhoon Haiyan gaining strength, heading towards the Philippines
Shivali Nayak, and staff, Wednesday November 6, 2013 - 16:07 EDT
Typhoon Haiyan is intensifying as it continues to move across the northern Pacific, packing winds of up to 240 kilometres per hour.

Michael Ziobrol, from the US National Weather Service, says the typhoon is forecast to affect parts of Micronesia later on Wednesday.

"It's going pretty quickly and it's going to go to Palau and south of Yap but there's a little island there with a few people called Nrulu and they're probably going to get the eye of the typhoon over them," he said.

The Palau National Emergency Management Office (NEMO) is advising the public to tune into local broadcasters for updates and to stock up on emergency supplies.

Palau's government offices and schools will remain shut until Friday.

Mr Ziobro says many of the islands in the path of the typhoon are low-lying areas.

"Some of these little islands are not very high... levels above the ocean so some of the wave action would be higher than atolls," he said.

"They might be only about 10 feet high and we're expecting seas of 13-16 feet and probably even higher than that and it could over wash the island."

So far, there have been no deaths but some damage has been reported.

Mr Ziobro says people on the Micronesian islands should not venture out to sea due to rough waters and strong winds.

"That's very dangerous at this point," he said.

"There was a little island... Woleai, we knew they had some damage. We haven't heard anybody getting hurt or killed so that's been fortunate for now."

Most dangerous storm

Haiyan is expected to reach central Philippines as a super typhoon by Friday noon local time, moving at 233-249 kilometres per hour, according to Michael Ziobrol.

"If people are in the Philippines, they should start preparing too, especially the central Philippines," he said.

Dr Jeff Masters, a contributor to the weather blog Wunderground, says Haiyan will likely be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year.

Many people in the Philippines have been expressing their concerns about the impending storm on social networking site Twitter.

"Super typhoon #YolandaPH is on its way! Weekends ruined again! Keep safe everyone!"

- Rubiereen (@Reen_rivera)



"Everybody is now busy in #doomsday #prepping for Super typhoon #HAIYAN (#YolandaPH)."

- Chad Rey G. (@ReyGac8)

The typhoon will be named Yolanda when it enters the Philippines.

The country is hit by some 20 typhoons each year. Typhoon Nari pounded the archipelago's north last month, killing 13 people.


- ABC

© ABC 2013
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1216803 - 06/11/2013 20:16 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
WDPN33 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM SOUTH OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION AS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A SMALL 8NM PINHOLE EYE
HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A 060550Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A SMALL
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE CONCISE EYE SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS DUE TO THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND IS ON THE HIGH END OF AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 115 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. STY 31W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR
TO TAU 48, OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. STY 31W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A 110 KNOT TYPHOON. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3113prog.txt
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1216845 - 07/11/2013 09:22 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4145
Loc: El Arish
Super Typhoon HAIYAN has now hit 150 Knots!



_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1216849 - 07/11/2013 09:52 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: Steven]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
Poor buggers in the Philippines. Even though typhoons are a way of life up there it doesn't get much worse than this.
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#1216860 - 07/11/2013 10:37 Re: 2013 Typhoon Season (Asia) [Re: ColdFront]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4180
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Haiyan looks pretty nasty alright and yes CF it doesn't get any worse than this. Hope everyone stays safe and hears all the pre warnings and alerts.



_________________________
MTD: 4.0mm
YTD: 2287.6 mm

September- 18.0mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”

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