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#1222512 - 27/11/2013 15:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2208
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Alessia is a wet one for sure, masses of rain on the radar
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#1222514 - 27/11/2013 15:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Remarks from the Tech Bulletin BOM website.

REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia has intensified overnight while moving slowly south
southeast over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. Recent central position
estimates are good based on tightly curved spiral bands evident on Mornington
Island radar data.

Gales were observed at Centre Island between 5:30 and 10:30 am this morning with
maximum gusts reaching 57 knots [105 km/h]. Overnight scatterometer data
indicated that the area of gales was confined to the southeast sector of the
tropical low. At 00UTC Dvorak analysis vielded DT=2.5/3.0 based on an 0.5 wrap
curved band. FT based on MET and DT, with a rapid intensity trend during the
past 12 hours.

The environment is currently favourable with low vertical wind shear, deep
moisture and good outflow in the eastern semicircle. The low is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone with gales more than half way around the centre
later today. The tropical low is located in a break in the 500 hPa ridge with
weak steering flow. It is expected to remain slow moving near the coast for the
next one to two days before slowly drifting inland over the Gulf Country on
Friday. Intensity is currently held at category 1 due to the restraining
influence of nearby land and a gradual increase in vertical wind shear during
the forecast period.
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#1222515 - 27/11/2013 16:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
So the latest update said she has reformed.

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#1222516 - 27/11/2013 16:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I know its a long way off but I was just told to check out the updated GFS run. Alessia almost backtracks out over where she crossed in the NT and then travels back over the grounds near Kalumburu next week. Now wouldn't that be a bizarre occurrence. A bit bigger by the looks of it. Time will tell if it happens or not.

BSCH STORMCAST LINK



Edited by Popeye (27/11/2013 16:15)
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#1222518 - 27/11/2013 16:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah it looks that way weathermegs.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:28 pm CST [2:58 pm EST] on Wednesday 27 November 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Port Roper in the
Northern Territory to Karumba, including Mornington Island in Queensland.

At 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST] Tropical Cyclone Alessia, was estimated to be 115
kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 230 kilometres west northwest of
Mornington Island and is moving southeast at 8 kilometres per hour parallel to
the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Alessia has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
along the Northern territorty coast between Port McArthur and the Queensland
Border. Gales are expected to extend east to Mornington Island in Queensland
tonight and possibly further to Kurumba early on Thursday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING on the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast between Port McArthur and Karumba tonight and tomorrow.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause localised flooding in the Roper-McArthur District
and coastal areas in Queensland Gulf Country west of Mornington Island during
today and Thursday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alessia at 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 137.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 27 November [5:30 pm
EST Wednesday 27 November].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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#1222519 - 27/11/2013 16:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Kiwijohn007 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 203
Loc: South Hedland
BOM track map


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#1222521 - 27/11/2013 16:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
AKM80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 519
Loc: Marian, QLD
Further and further east each update.

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#1222523 - 27/11/2013 16:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Popeye]
Kiwijohn007 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 203
Loc: South Hedland
Interesting that EC have nothing over West in their runs now Popeye and GFS have.

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#1222524 - 27/11/2013 16:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah I thought we might have lost her with EC dropping off but GFS has given me a glimmer of hope she might return. EC should come to the party over the next 24hrs. If it doesn't then maybe its a rain bearing low for the Gulf Country and inland Top End before fizzling. And then the long wait til the next one. Its hard to think of this system in the Kimberley next week considering where it currently is situated.
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#1222525 - 27/11/2013 16:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Warning extended too karumba due to the spread of ensemble members forcasting a deepening trough or ridge.

It could go anywhere. Maybe a chase to normanton friday.
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#1222527 - 27/11/2013 17:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah hope so Trav. Would be good to see you guys get across for it. Is Normanton easy to access?
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#1222528 - 27/11/2013 17:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
That would be great trav..... Alessia is a tease... An unpredictable and hard to model cyclone is great for the season opener

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#1222529 - 27/11/2013 17:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24889
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
haha. welcome back girl!! great to have such a tease so early in the season, which way will she go?? love it.
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#1222533 - 27/11/2013 17:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Popeye]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18058
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Is Normanton easy to access?



Depends on how much rain ahead of the system. That area is drought declared so plenty would go in first but once it goes under it stays under for months.
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#1222535 - 27/11/2013 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Kiwijohn007 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 203
Loc: South Hedland
BOM are still persisting with the swing back West at the end of the track map wink

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#1222538 - 27/11/2013 17:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
I got friends in normanton too so I got accom.

If and thats IF! The models trend east I will be leaving for normanton friday arvo assuming it hits within 100km west of karumba.

No way in the world am I going chasing to karumba as I will never get out.

so normanton will have to be it. It is a highly unlikely situation but if it trends east I will be gearing up for a hometown chase woo.

in not expecting to go but I will be ready if so. Anywhere west of normanton is inaccessable to burketown after rain. Its a bad bad road in the wet.


Edited by Trav Dog (27/11/2013 17:43)
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#1222543 - 27/11/2013 18:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2956
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
She is looking pretty impresive on radar, compared to the other day.
Will be interesting if she heads back to WA... or not.
Could there be a chance a secondary low develops near the top end?


Edited by Steve O (27/11/2013 18:14)

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#1222545 - 27/11/2013 18:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 183
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
The BSCH STORMCAST link, makes this bird into one crazy chick! How often has there been a TC chuck a total U turn and go back?

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#1222546 - 27/11/2013 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I still think West. EC in their update 25 minutes ago seems to drop it but if you follow their rainfall charts for the same period you can still track where they think she will go. Steadily West. It will only take a little change here or there and they will have it back up again. Conditions might not be overly great once it does arrive if it does therefore its not represented well now. I hope she ramps up to a CAT 2 in the next 36hrs in the Gulf just to give her some momentum before heading back home.

EC RAINFALL LOOP
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#1222547 - 27/11/2013 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (Indian Ocean & GOC) Nov 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2956
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Also though Pme output looks to have this system almost stationary for a few days.. As the track map suggests. Then maybe weakening by an upper trough moving north end of week?


Edited by Steve O (27/11/2013 18:32)

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