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#1222780 - 29/11/2013 10:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
0.8mm in the Orange AP guage. Excitement builds....will we get to 1.0mm?????
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#1222787 - 29/11/2013 11:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Wow, 0.8mm? Luxury. The ground barely got wet here, the gauge ignored it. they need a word in the forecast to replace "possible showers" with "possible dampness".

Very cold SE blowing (again) though, smells of mountain forest with that crisp icyness to it.

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#1222792 - 29/11/2013 11:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
Understand exactly how you feel ant. Its like having a thirsty, parched mouth and the only thing to quench it is a damp cloth! Possible snow forecast for the higher Alps so not surprised it is getting chilly down that way.
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#1222797 - 29/11/2013 12:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
We cracked 1.0mm!! laugh
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NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1222798 - 29/11/2013 12:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Bah! Nothing here since the whatever-it-was early morning, and no sign of anything either. Cold and dark though. 14c and a southerly. dry and cold.

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#1222801 - 29/11/2013 12:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Seem to be a few cells of heavier rain in Sydney's West. Cool with steady, light rain here, enough to wet the road even though OH has only recorded 0.6mm since 9:00.

BOM is still forecasting 24-25 for the Sydney area. They must have been expecting slower progress of the cool Southerly air mass and a few reasonably long sunny breaks. The forecast not only fails the 'look out the window' test, it fails the 'look a the satellite chart' and 'look at the synoptic chart' tests.


Edited by Steve777 (29/11/2013 12:53)

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#1222807 - 29/11/2013 13:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
Bureau's forecast is 20 for Orange. Now down to 11.8, falling steadily from 20 at midnight.
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#1222808 - 29/11/2013 13:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Today is basically a carbon copy of Christmas Day 2012 with lovely cold temps and those heavy cells developing out west. Might well be a rumble or two in them later.

For the record, I forecast tops in the low 20s for all suburbs today on my Facebook group which was also what OCF and yr.no were suggesting.

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#1222820 - 29/11/2013 14:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4434
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
Looks like some fun coming towards me at Gorokan..
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SEP rain 0.0 mm

2016 Rainfall-1241.9mm
2015 Rainfall-1568.2mm
2014 Rainfall-1109.1mm


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#1222844 - 29/11/2013 17:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That's quite an extraordinary system showing up on the GFS charts on this site for next week, starting as a weak low in Central Australia on Tuesday, tracking SE and intensifying across inland NSW and turning into a very intense East Coast low in Bass Strait by Friday (Central pressure about 988 hpa). If it came off it would bring lots of rain, maybe too much, to SE Inland NSW, Victoria and Tasmania. The part I like is Westerly winds for the coast, but I don't want that thing passing North of Sydney and escaping into the Northern Tasman Sea. We've had more than enough rain.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=168&focus=mh

Early days yet, although not quite in fantasy land. Interesting if it develops.

P.S. getting brighter and warming up in Sydney. If it get's much warmer it might reach the 'minimum' temperature shown on the BOM site.

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#1222867 - 29/11/2013 19:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 658
Loc: Orange, NSW
That'd be the remnants of Alissia. Its happened before….lets hope….
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#1222871 - 29/11/2013 19:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
That system seems to exist in all of the models on this site but only in GFS does it go completely feral. In EC it seems to rapidly disappear Southwards and join up with a low that forms SW of Bass Strait, leading to what looks like a strong Winter style S-SW change.

P.S. Seems to be clearing here now after a short, sharp shower about an hour ago.


Edited by Steve777 (29/11/2013 20:04)
Edit Reason: Clarification

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#1222884 - 29/11/2013 20:40 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4256
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Steve777 should be some good storms with that one if it comes off.
Anyway 1.6mm till 9am this morning and a further 16.1mm since. If a further 5.3mm overnight will fall and i will crack the 300mm mark for November making it the wettest Novemeber that i have recorded ever in the 16 years of record keeping. Previous wettest was in November 2006, when 255mm fell!!
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MTD 61.4mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
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#1222989 - 30/11/2013 09:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4256
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Some pretty heavy showers in the early hours this morning, 26.9mm in the 24 hrs to 9am.
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Rainfall
MTD 61.4mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
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#1222993 - 30/11/2013 09:29 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9661
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We had a whopping 0.2 of a mm here yesterday - made Ant's "rain" look pitiful by contrast. crazy

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#1222998 - 30/11/2013 10:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
Originally Posted By: Steve777
That's quite an extraordinary system showing up on the GFS charts on this site for next week


This happens every week! The charts confidently forecast the next giant flood, and then it slips through with single-figure totals. Maybe if we insult it, it will deliver the goods.

Originally Posted By: EddyG
i will crack the 300mm mark for November making it the wettest Novemeber that i have recorded ever in the 16 years of record keeping.


Oh, go away! That's our rain you got, us inlanders watch it sail up there and dump our rain on you north coasters.

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#1223002 - 30/11/2013 10:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3426
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Certainly the system has been very much toned down in the updated models. It's still there in an attenuated form. GFS has it forming into a trough that links up with a low forming SW of Tasmania. It still brings some decent rain to SE quarter of the state. The system also still gets very intense, but not until it's well away from the mainland. Tasmania might get some heavy rain and high winds though.

Anyway, that's what the model seems to be saying now. We'll see how it pans out.

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#1223009 - 30/11/2013 10:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4256
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: ant

Originally Posted By: EddyG
i will crack the 300mm mark for November making it the wettest Novemeber that i have recorded ever in the 16 years of record keeping.


Oh, go away! That's our rain you got, us inlanders watch it sail up there and dump our rain on you north coasters.


If i could give it to you i would, im sort of over this rain, we have puddles on top puddles atm!!!

Some of these rain clouds are getting a bit of decent structure about them, would'nt be surprised to hear a rumble or two. Probably north of me though!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 61.4mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1223093 - 30/11/2013 20:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1378
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
170 MMS Total here for the month.EddyG,not like you in that wet area of the state,no body will ever get more rain than you,you get all the coastal showers,and seem to pick up the storms from the west as well.
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http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1223103 - 30/11/2013 21:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4256
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Thats a good drop there for your area Stormy3, i know the upper Hunter is still screaming for some more rain, but for you i guess is just regular follow up rain that is needed!!!
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Rainfall
MTD 61.4mm
YTD 1058.7mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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