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#1226212 - 23/12/2013 11:05 January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Hi,

Here is my predictions and the outlook for January 2014. Hope u enjoy. If there is something u don't understand properly and I need to correct in my future forecasts just let me know. As my methods are different from the normal meteorology. Any comments welcome. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all weather freaks!

January 2014 Monthly Weather Forecast Central & Eastern Queensland

Jan 1st-2nd: Mild conditions from a high pressure ridge dominates western and parts of central Queensland this period. For south-east Qld and parts of eastern Qld districts, the weather will be warmer with some wind. Atmospheric disturbances due to a cold front will lead to a good chance of thunderstorms with gusts. The potential for wind or storms producing wind I think dominates most of eastern Qld.

Jan 3rd-4th: Above average temperatures and atmospheric disturbances continue. The focus of the weather will centre over west-central Qld on the 3rd with south-east districts mostly fine and warm with some isolated afternoon storms occurring over inland districts. Around the 4th, the unsettled and mostly afternoon stormy conditions will focus over eastern Queensland and all south-east Qld at this time.

Jan 5th-6th: Brisbane and south-east Qld should experience a warmer, humid air mass with the chance of a shower/s. On the 6th, contradictory influences in the atmosphere could lead to thunderstorms or a change moving over far eastern Qld earlier in the day which would result in partly cloudy weather, with moderately humid and cooler conditions.

Jan 7th-10th: An approaching system will bring a warm, humid air mass and gentle breezes with a chance at times for some rainfall in the far south of eastern Qld for the 7th and 8th. Around the 7th-9th period, central Qld should see sudden storms mostly in the afternoon developing which will reach eastern Qld and the coast between the 8th-10th period.

Jan 11th-13th: A high pressure ridge is located offshore off the coast. Over south-east Qld and most far eastern districts, increasing temperatures and humidity may lead to the chance of slight showers during the 11th and 12th. For central Qld districts, the same weather pattern occurs with increasing temperatures and humidity with the chance of showers. Mostly fine around the 13th most areas with a high pressure ridge clearing the weather over central Qld during this time.

Jan 14th-15th: High pressure ridge dominates western-central Qld. A developing trough could bring increased humidity and perhaps the chance of showers over central Queensland around the 14th. For eastern and south-east Qld a possible cold front moving through could bring unsettled conditions with the slight chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

Jan 16th-18th: Western Qld could produce the likelihood of stormy conditions mostly in the afternoon and night. This should be the main area of activity for Qld this period. The developing high pressure ridge around the 16th moves over central and eastern Queensland providing fair and milder conditions. By around the 18th, a high pressure system or cold front moves offshore at this time.

Jan 19th-21st: Fine and pleasant conditions on the 19th for most districts in central and eastern Qld. For the 20th-21st period, an increase in temperature and humidity over central Qld but I think it will likely remain mostly fine. In eastern and south-east Qld there is the possibility of a cold front producing precipitation around this time which should clear conditions for the 21st. Other dry aspects dominate this period so it remains to see how precipitation occurs with this system. Fronts dominate the rest of the month.

Jan 22nd-23rd: Another front or low pressure system moves through Eastern Qld and the south-east during this period which should only produce dry heat. So dry conditions with above average conditions are expected.

Jan 24th-26th: A likely stormy period for central, eastern and south-east districts of Qld as a result of a strong cold front or low pressure area. Storm warnings could be issued in the developing thundery rain bands on the 24th moving eastwards. By the 25th/26th the storms should be centred over eastern and south-east Qld.

Jan 27th-31st: Unsettled weather is possible on the 27th with possible left over instability from the previous period in far eastern parts. Generally improving weather occurs around this time and otherwise clearing. The 28th-30th period shows us pleasant, fair weather across central and eastern Qld with increasing temperatures developing from a developing low pressure or strong front around the 30th. So by the 31st, strong afternoon storm systems end the month for eastern Qld.


by: Scott Hansen
Web: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com
E-mail: brisbaneweather@gmail.com
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_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1226214 - 23/12/2013 11:14 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
-Cosmic- (naz) Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 5373
Loc: Woodside, Adelaide Hills, SA
Are your methods cyclic (based on patterns) or differential (based on projecting current conditions forward in time)? I get the impression it's the former. Also, if they are cyclic in nature, do you account for the effects of the planets on each other?


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (23/12/2013 11:16)
_________________________
-To be kind to oneself is to be kind in all situations.


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#1226226 - 23/12/2013 13:37 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: -Cosmic- (naz)]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Hi -Cosmic-,

Yes weather is cyclic. Keeping it simple and not using my methods in Astrometeorology, weather patterns repeat and are similar in 36-year and 186-year cycles. Therefore seasonable weather trends may be mapped. So 1827 would be similar to 2013. Likewise, 1977 trends similar to 2013.

The position of declination and perigee/Full Moon and perigee/New Moon closely matches 1977, 36 years earlier. Can we predict 2013 would be similar to the weather of 1977 for Australia. Yes! Look back on the temperature and rainfall patterns and you would find how similar the trends are.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1226231 - 23/12/2013 14:15 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 1494
Loc: Mt Stapylton, QLD
So on that cycle, would 2014 be similar to 1977 aswell?

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#1226238 - 23/12/2013 14:58 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6022
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I have looked at this cyclic stuff before and it does not work, even if it did for sun-moon-planets, the oceans are different, the land use is different, the volcanic effects are different, the variety of solar outputs are different, the ozone is different, etc, etc, so it does not and cannot work imo. I have looked into various forecasters cyclic long term gear and I have never found it accurate, neither id 1977 like 2013, if you have a look. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfa...s&date=1977-dec
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfallandpasturegrowth/index.php?area=aus&decade=2010s
Cycles yes there are cycles in nature everywhere, but you have to be careful at what you look at, there are cycles and cycles, but they rarely match up with each other. So one cycle on its own is not that good because other cycles are also operating ie solar high max(1977 era) and solar low max (2013 era), etc,etc,
so it is not as easy as this year equals that year from what I can see.


Edited by bd bucketingdown (23/12/2013 14:59)

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#1226242 - 23/12/2013 15:06 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6022
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
There was a cyclic forecast put out years ago and there is a new one out there now based on just cycles, and very occasionally it it correct, most of the time it is not, from viewing it quite a bit. I am open to anything but it has to show skill and it has to show consistency and it has to have some basis. Yes, look into anything you like that may work, I would encourage that, but it has to work in the end consistently enough. Nothing will be right all the time agreed, but it has to show consistency over long periods of good results, and have at least a hypothetical science basis of sorts. We have much to discover yet and I would say yes, research and look and discover for sure, that is the way to go. Now I had better be quiet for a while, as I get a bit carried away! LOL! Wishing all a happy and safe and blessed Christmas and New Year! Cheers

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#1226294 - 24/12/2013 06:21 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
Squally Storm Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 46
Originally Posted By: BrisWeatherMan
Hi,
Jan 1st-2nd:
Mild conditions from a high pressure ridge dominates western and parts of central Queensland this period.


Models suggesting potentially record breaking heat for the first few days of January in western and central parts of Queensland.

EC has 33C 850 temps on the 2nd through Maranoa and Warrego and large areas above 30C 850 temps through rest of western Queensland.


Edited by Squally Storm (24/12/2013 06:22)

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#1226339 - 24/12/2013 14:13 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: Squally Storm]
pete28 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 910
Loc: West Melton, Canterbury, NZ
Bloody hell just looked at EC now for 1st and 2nd January, forget QLD's highest ever temp of 49.5C being beaten, Australia's record is under threat too if 850hpa temps of 33C fall over the top of Birdsville area! One to watch for sure. ..

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#1228642 - 03/01/2014 10:36 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Here's an update of the results of my prediction for the 1st-2nd period below:

Mild conditions from a high pressure ridge dominates western and parts of central Queensland this period.
RESULT - Wrong? Low pressure was located over west-central Qld which moved westwards on the 2nd and the high pressure ridge was further east than I forecasted and developed off the central coast of Qld by the 2nd as seen in the map below:


For south-east Qld and parts of eastern Qld districts, the weather will be warmer with some wind. Atmospheric disturbances due to a cold front will lead to a good chance of thunderstorms with gusts. The potential for wind or storms producing wind I think dominates most of eastern Qld.
RESULT - Correct! The temperatures on both days were warmer and some wind motion occurred with the warmth. On the 1st most of the region experienced average winds of 30-35km/h and 20 knots along the coast. The 2nd was mostly light-moderate strength during the day.

What about the storm producing wind. I was getting worried but late yesterday evening we did get a thundery rain band in the south and moved over most south-east as a line of showers with some wind that kicked as the storm band moved through. You can see the 24 hour rainfall to 9am this morning below:
http://www.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR66D.gif?20140102230908

At my place in Burpengary, the wind blew around 20 knots just before the band of showers moved through. All in all it's a pretty accurate forecast! The intensity wasn't quite what I expected but the event did happen this period.

What do you think? Any comments welcome.

Image Bureau Of Meteorology
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1229333 - 05/01/2014 12:21 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, next result is for the 3rd-4th period below. How did I fair!

Jan 3rd-4th: Above average temperatures and atmospheric disturbances continue. The focus of the weather will centre over west-central Qld on the 3rd with south-east districts mostly fine and warm with some isolated afternoon storms occurring over inland districts. Result - A trough was over west-central Qld and saw some cloud and isolated instability. There were isolated storm cells that occurred over the south-east inland and ranges which moved into the Wide Bay area.

Around the 4th, the unsettled and mostly afternoon stormy conditions will focus over eastern Queensland and all south-east Qld at this time. Result - Unsettled conditions resulted in hot and dry weather. A change moved through late but no storms developed as predicted. Above average temperatures and atmospheric disturbances was what I had for this period.

What do you think? Any comments welcome!
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1230039 - 07/01/2014 18:35 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, the next results are for the 5th-6th period:

Jan 5th-6th: Brisbane and south-east Qld should experience a warmer, humid air mass with the chance of a shower/s. Result - On the 5th we had mostly cloudy conditions with isolated showers on the forecast. Accurate

On the 6th, contradictory influences in the atmosphere could lead to thunderstorms or a change moving over far eastern Qld earlier in the day which would result in partly cloudy weather, with moderately humid and cooler conditions. Result - The 6th saw widespread storms over SE Qld and eastern parts Qld. Accurate
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1230736 - 10/01/2014 20:20 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, the next results are for the 5th-6th period:

Jan 7th-10th: An approaching system will bring a warm, humid air mass and gentle breezes with a chance at times for some rainfall in the far south of eastern Qld for the 7th and 8th. Result - We had a cooler SE'ly change arrive which caused cooler conditions. It was humid. We also had fresh-gusty wind. We did have some showers develop during this time. 50% accuracy, but still a good result.

Around the 7th-9th period, central Qld should see sudden storms mostly in the afternoon developing which will reach eastern Qld and the coast between the 8th-10th period. Result - As predicted we did see stormy weather develop over central Qld. Although this system did not move eastwards, eastern Qld saw cloudy conditions with some rain mostly over the central coast areas and the south-east saw cloudy, scattered showers. Close to 100% Accurate forecast

Let me know what u think? Any comments welcome!
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1231420 - 13/01/2014 18:50 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, the next results are for the 11th-13th period:

Jan 11th-13th: A high pressure ridge is located offshore off the coast. Over south-east Qld and most far eastern districts, increasing temperatures and humidity may lead to the chance of slight showers during the 11th and 12th. Result - Eastern Qld is under a high pressure ridge with very isolated showers and temperatures have remained warm and humid during this time

For central Qld districts, the same weather pattern occurs with increasing temperatures and humidity with the chance of showers. Mostly fine around the 13th most areas with a high pressure ridge clearing the weather over central Qld during this time. Result - Central Qld has seen some cloud and isolated precipitation and today the 13th central Qld the instability has cleared with fine conditions.

So we have another hit and the accuracy this month has been quite accurate so far, so any comments welcome if you have been following and listing down my results for this month!
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1232157 - 16/01/2014 08:43 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, here's the result for the 14th-15th period below:

Jan 14th-15th:
High pressure ridge dominates western-central Qld. Result - The ridge of high pressure can be seen on the maps to affect this area. Correct.
A developing trough could bring increased humidity and perhaps the chance of showers over central Queensland around the 14th. Result - No developing upper system developed and the area remained fine and mostly sunny. Only a chance of precipitation was forecast, so we would of expected mainly dry weather around this time. Neutral.
For eastern and south-east Qld a possible cold front moving through could bring unsettled conditions with the slight chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Result - No frontal system moved over SE Qld, but there was a band of showery weather that centered mostly to the north of Brisbane in the evening and night. Based on a slight chance of showers occurring this is what occurred. Neutral.


Edited by BrisWeatherMan (16/01/2014 08:44)
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1232945 - 19/01/2014 07:36 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok, here's a quick result for the 16th-18th period below:

Jan 16th-18th:
Western Qld could produce the likelihood of stormy conditions mostly in the afternoon and night. This should be the main area of activity for Qld this period. Result - The far NW and north-west Queensland saw cloud and precipitation. A pretty close forecast as this was the main activity this period along with northern parts Qld.

The developing high pressure ridge around the 16th moves over central and eastern Queensland providing fair and milder conditions. By around the 18th, a high pressure system or cold front moves offshore at this time. Result - high pressure ridge dominated this period. Central Qld remained fine, isolated showers occurred in eastern Qld but generally most places remained fine. And the ridge has started moved offshore.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1234194 - 25/01/2014 09:36 Re: January 2014 Weather Outlook - Central and Eastern Queensland [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 81
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Here is the update of recent results. This month so far has produced good results with a high degree of accuracy but this 22nd-23rd period has officially been the first period which has not eventuated as predicted.

Jan 22nd-23rd: Another front or low pressure system moves through Eastern Qld and the south-east during this period which should only produce dry heat. So dry conditions with above average conditions are expected. Result - Strong thunderstorms occurred both days. The 22nd was very warm and saw severe storms. The 23rd saw heavy rain in the Brisbane area. Wrong.

Jan 19th-21st: Fine and pleasant conditions on the 19th for most districts in central and eastern Qld. Result - Most areas experienced dry conditions with patch showers to north of Brisbane. Accurate enough
For the 20th-21st period, an increase in temperature and humidity over central Qld but I think it will likely remain mostly fine. In eastern and south-east Qld there is the possibility of a cold front producing precipitation around this time which should clear conditions for the 21st. Result - The weather was unsettled that produced some precipitation during this time. Accurate.
Other dry aspects dominate this period so it remains to see how precipitation occurs with this system. Fronts dominate the rest of the month.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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