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#1225462 - 16/12/2013 21:10 Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:12 pm WST on Monday 16 December 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Cocos
Islands.

At 1:00 pm CXT a tropical low was estimated to be
480 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Island and
800 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island and
near stationary.

The low is expected to start moving west southwest soon and may develop into a
tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible during Wednesday and may persist
into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the
system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and
thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.



Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 pm CXT:
.Centre located near...... 8.3 degrees South 98.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals


Edited by Mick10 (19/12/2013 13:02)
Edit Reason: title change
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1225492 - 16/12/2013 23:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
You're keen Mick. Pretty much every model runs it off to the west unfortunately.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1225517 - 17/12/2013 10:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 2:35 am WST on Tuesday 17 December 2013

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands.

At 1:00 am CXT a tropical low was estimated to be
445 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Island and
moving west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on
Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible during Wednesday and may persist
into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the
system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and
thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.



Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am CXT:
.Centre located near...... 8.4 degrees South 98.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1225570 - 17/12/2013 18:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Tuesday 17 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the Cocos Islands.

At 1:00 pm CXT a tropical low was estimated to be
395 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on
Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop during Wednesday morning and may
persist into Thursday morning. Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are
possible on the Cocos Islands during Wednesday if the system moves closer to
the island than expected.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the
rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.



Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 pm CXT:
.Centre located near...... 8.7 degrees South 97.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1225584 - 17/12/2013 21:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Kiwijohn007 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 203
Loc: South Hedland
Tropical low track map number 5



Edited by Kiwijohn007 (17/12/2013 21:04)

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#1225647 - 18/12/2013 12:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Moonstruck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Posts: 755
IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 8:16 am WST on Wednesday 18 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for the Cocos Islands.

At 7:00 am CXT Tropical Cyclone Bruce, Category 1 was estimated to be
215 kilometres north northwest of the Cocos Islands and
moving southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Bruce has reached category 1 intensity and is expected to
continue intensifying as it moves west southwest and passes to the northwest of
the Cocos Islands today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible on the Cocos Islands
from now until early Thursday morning. Since the system is intensifying and is
expected to make its closest approach Wednesday afternoon or evening, the
strongest winds are expected during this time. Gales with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour are possible on the Cocos Islands during late Wednesday if
the system moves closer to the island than expected.

Heavy rain and squally thunderstorms are expected for the Cocos Islands during
Wednesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the system,
the rain and thunderstorms should ease on Thursday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Bruce at 7:00 am CXT:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 96.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CXT Wednesday 18 December.
_________________________
W


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#1225650 - 18/12/2013 12:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 186
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
Bruce thread coming up soon? So will he make it, and where will he land?

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#1225655 - 18/12/2013 13:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
he wont make land. but is forecast to become a cat 4 storm, fantastic breeding conditions.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1225660 - 18/12/2013 15:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 320
Loc: Karratha, WA
This years Narelle...

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#1225664 - 18/12/2013 16:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Leelee]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Leelee
This years Narelle...


Maybe the next one TC Christine could be closer to Narelle's Path. If something forms up of the top end next week and pushes west it might just keep heading west and intensify. If it gets down around here in Exmouth the waters are just 26 degrees as measured on a boat I was on 2 days ago 30 miles offshore. A few of the locals I spoke too said the waters seemed a bit too cool for any TC's near Exmouth just yet. Narelle came in close a few hundred Kms offshore as a CAT 5. What were her dates?
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1225666 - 18/12/2013 16:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 320
Loc: Karratha, WA
Sorry, I didnt mean so much path as intensity for time of year.

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#1225680 - 18/12/2013 19:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah it would be pretty wild to see a nice CAT 4 build in the next few days.

BOMS tech notes say the following

'The intensity forecast is based on a standard rate of development in the short
term, then plateauing as a low end category 4 system on Saturday.'
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1225765 - 19/12/2013 13:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
bruce has reached severe status, cat 3 with pressure at 976hPa
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1226007 - 21/12/2013 11:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 432
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
JTWC has Bruce progged to briefly reach what they usually call Super Typhoon status in the NW Pacific (sustained winds >= 130kt) around now, 0000Z 21/12.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1226009 - 21/12/2013 11:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Posts: 744
Here's a different way of seeing Bruce and co:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=81.82,1.47,609

The controls are hidden under the word "Earth" on the bottom left. Click directly onto the globe to spin it.

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#1226011 - 21/12/2013 12:09 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Glad you like Marakai's link Jax.

Mouse wheel zooms in and out.

This link is much easier.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa

If you zoom right in and click on the sth eastern side of the system you'll see it has winds above 150 km/h now.

Both Bruce and the system further out have deepened a fair bit over night.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1226053 - 21/12/2013 19:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18615
Loc: The Beach.
Winds hitting 200k's around Bruce now.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1226172 - 22/12/2013 20:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2386
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Saw a CAT5 on this a little while ago, huge power
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1226274 - 23/12/2013 20:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: Mick10]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Amazing animation !!of the 2 cyclones A and Bruce converging into a trough in the Indian ocean currently.
What a shame l could not capture the animation...
If you look now you will see it from this link before the two have completely dissolved

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/movies/m5wv/m5wvjava.html

Still pic' doesn't do it justice but the best l could do

Ha that's awesome!! cool


Edited by crikey (23/12/2013 21:03)
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#1226278 - 23/12/2013 21:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce (SIO) December 2013 [Re: crikey]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic

Wonderful. Would interesting physics operating in this phenomenon.

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