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#1225115 - 14/12/2013 11:19 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
According to GFS we'll be sitting under another lame ridge for Christmas Day in SEQ.


Well that didn't last long. Both EC and GFS seem to be hinting at much hotter conditions through SEQ for the Xmas period now. Just the way it should be.

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#1225378 - 16/12/2013 01:04 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I'm watching the 8-day rainfall outlook charts carefully... taking it one day at a time btw, so I'm being cautiously, mildly optimistic! Also watching BSCH Stormcast as well... they seem to be hinting towards a possible storm outbreak developing over Victoria in the lead-up to Christmas Day!! That's encouraging news, even though I admit it is still a long way off and I will admit that I risk being proven wrong, but would gladly love to be proven right and be treated with severe thunderstorms on (or close-to) Christmas Day here in Melbourne! smile

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#1226209 - 23/12/2013 10:44 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 161
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Ok so we are 2 days away from the Christmas day What was my weather forecasts for this day?. Are my capital city predictions going to do well as predicted?

For Brisbane, I had the forecast for fine, warm and unsettled with chance of thunderstorms mostly west of the ranges. Update: Slightly unsettled and warm weather with the chance of isolated showers moving south during the day. Isolated thunderstorms developing in the far SW and west inland districts of south-east Qld are predicted. (Accurate enough)

For Sydney, I had the forecast for fine and partly cloudy and light breezes. Update: Partly cloudy with the chance of a shower or two. Winds light NE'ly are predicted. (Accurate enough)

For Canberra, I had the forecast of fine and warm and mostly sunny. Update: Mostly sunny day, warm with light winds is predicted. (Accurate)

For Melbourne, I had the forecast of fine, warm and mostly sunny. Update: Sunny weather with warm-very warm conditions are predicted. (Accurate)

For Hobart, I had the forecast of fine, mild, sunny and pleasant. Update: Fine, mild and partly cloudy day is predicted. (Accurate)

For Adelaide, I has the forecast of mainly fine and hot with high cloud areas. Update: Dry and mostly sunny and hot is predicted. (Accurate enough)

For Perth, I had the forecast of unsettled and changeable, mild to warm and partly cloudy. Update: Partly cloudy and warm is predicted. (Accurate)

For Darwin, I had the forecast of cloudy with some heavy rain. Update: Showers and afternoon storms are predicted. A low in the Timor Sea is going to move SW off the Kimberly coast around this time. (Accurate)

Now we look to the Boxing Day forecast below:

For Brisbane, I had the forecast of widespread showers and storms, possibly severe on the Granite Belt and south of Brisbane. Update: Scattered showers and isolated storms mostly in the south are predicted. No severe storms predicted at the moment. Looks like NE NSW will have good rains and severe weather from the storms. (Accurate enough)

For Sydney, I had the forecast of hot and mostly cloudy spells with chance threat of shower or thunderstorms. Update: Mild and partly cloudy with isolated showers are predicted. (Is it accurate enough? I say no but I did mention the threat of showers or storm activity. I had hot weather but this is wrong)

For Canberra, I had the forecast of scattered cloudy spells with unsettled weather as in the chance of isolated shower/storm activity. Update: Partly cloudy and very warm with isolated showers are predicted. (Accurate enough)

For Melbourne, I had the forecast of unsettled and changeable with cooler spells developing. Mainly fine. Update: Mostly sunny and warm but becoming cooler later. (Accurate enough)

For Hobart, I had the forecast of fine and partly cloudy weather. Update: Partly cloudy, isolated showers until evening is predicted. (Wrong? Wait and see)

For Adelaide, I had the forecast of hot and sunny weather. Update: Hot and sunny conditions are predicted. (Accurate)

For Perth, I had the forecast of fine and mild, partly cloudy, changeable. Update: Sunny but very warn weather is predicted. (Accurate enough)

For Darwin, I had the forecast of cloudy with rain continuing. Update: Isolated showers and storms most districts of the Top End. (Is it it accurate enough?)

Thanks and any comments welcome?
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1226250 - 23/12/2013 16:38 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hmm yes Melbourne's Christmas Day forecast seems accurate enough Scott, although the Boxing Day forecast reads a bit differently according to the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology; a weak low pressure trough is expected to move across Victoria on Boxing Day. The official forecast for both days is as follows:

Christmas Day:

Low of 13C, high of 31C, sunny with northerly winds and bayside seabreezes of 10-20km/h

Boxing Day:

Low of 18C, high of 29C, partly cloudy with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms late morning, light winds tending southerly at 20-30km/h

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#1226252 - 23/12/2013 16:56 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: aussiestormfreak]
BrisWeatherMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/10/2013
Posts: 161
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Hi aussiestormfreak,

Yes I do see the Boxing Day forecast now. It has changed now from what the BoM said this morning. We'll have to wait and see, but maybe I could be wrong there yet! The only thing I had there could be changeable weather with cooler spell developing and mainly fine, so have to wait and see how accurate this is yet. Keep me posted on the day.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
Burpengary, Qld
Website: http://brisbaneweatherpredictions.blogspot.com

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#1226265 - 23/12/2013 19:13 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Bula, g'day Scott! smile

Yep, you were pretty close in your 'pre-updated' forecast with regards to Boxing Day for Melbourne, definitely about the 'unsettled and changeable' part, I'm sure it'll start getting cooler as the trough pushes through (in line with your 'updated' predictions)... really hoping we get a decent thunderstorm or two on Boxing Day - they've been too few and far between this season, I am getting desperate!! frown

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#1226271 - 23/12/2013 20:09 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G forecast indicating stormy band for inland Northern NSW
and the North east NSW on Christmas day.
Had a look at wind streams for the cause .
- a bit of an exit jetstreak at 200hPa.and down to 500hpa
At 850 hpa showing some convergence of North easterlies and west sth westerlies with increased wind speed at convergence zone
Ah Ha! Access dew points has a nice band of high humidity and moisture over the area Dew point up to 20-22 deg c east inland nth NSW .
A nice brew
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (23/12/2013 20:12)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1226272 - 23/12/2013 20:24 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just trying to place the location of that likely storm band
Maybe BOURKE area or Walgett
Christmas day Humid and stormy..Bourke!!? LOL


ACCESS doesn't put towns on their map.. bO hOO!
http://www.sydney-australia.biz/maps/nsw/north-west-nsw-map.php

Bourke 80 % chance of 1-5mm ..Max temp 30 deg c
Chance of thunderstorms
http://www.willyweather.com.au/nsw/far-west/bourke.html


Edited by crikey (23/12/2013 20:28)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1226393 - 24/12/2013 22:25 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The BOM WATL combined is giving some rain and stormy activity to parts of NSW on Christmas day
Actually looks as though mid coast and Sydney perhaps may get some late storms and rain about 8pm-12pm according to ACCESS latest update
Have to laugh at
Willie weather giving Sydney a 'little rain'..10-15mm 100% Chance IS A DELUGE IN MY BOOKS.
Boxing day the same ..'a shower or two'
100% chance of 15-25mm !!!

Looks like this n/west in-feed rain band is going to produce
Sat pic ' looks great tonight


Gotta check the dew points there late tomorrow


http://www.willyweather.com.au/nsw/sydney/sydney.html
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1226431 - 25/12/2013 11:10 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Mixed Christmas across nation's capitals
Ben McBurney, Wednesday December 25, 2013 - 10:56 EDT

Christmas 2013 will see quite a contrast across Australia's capital cities, with the south and west the pick of the bunch, while the east and north will not have it so good.

Those who live in Adelaide, Melbourne or Hobart will have stunning Christmas weather, with all three cities likely to see their warmest Christmas Day since 1998.

Adelaide can look forward to sunny skies a top of 33 degrees, a great day to play some backyard cricket.

Melbourne will be similarly beautiful and is headed for 31 degrees, ideal weather to get down to the beach.

Hobart will see one of the warmest days of the month so far as the mercury is set to rise to 27 degrees.

Perth and Brisbane will also get the goods, heading for highs of 31 and 30 degrees respectively.

It is not looking so good for parts of the east though, with Sydney set to miss out once again, with its second wet Christmas on the trot with a top in the low 20s. Thankfully at least much of the morning won't be too wet with only a bit of drizzle around, however it will get very wet during the evening and overnight.

Darwin will see a typically wet Christmas, with showers and an afternoon thunderstorm or two with a maximum of about 31 degrees.

Merry Christmas to all!

- Weatherzone

Weatherzone 2013

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#1226432 - 25/12/2013 11:20 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: Jon77]
Jon77 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/04/2012
Posts: 447
Originally Posted By: Jon77
For Sydney, probably the traditional summer weather-

A Gale force south easterly scud fest with rain periods / drizzle. Temps 18c - 20c.

Last year December was a hot and very sunny month...... apart from Xmas Day.


Well I wasn't too far away, temp here in my part of Sydney is currently 20c and it is raining. Only thing missing is a strong south east wind giving a wind chill.

Pretty much traditional cold wet Christmas weather here. Remember those hot Christmas days of old.

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#1226443 - 25/12/2013 13:20 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Does anyone know what is the cause of the extended heat spell coming up to Central Qld soon into the new year ? The trough I thought was inland yet even Yeppoon on the coast is forecast to be over 30 deg.

Because Brisbane has only one day of 37 deg forecast.


Edited by Vinnie (25/12/2013 13:21)
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#1226498 - 26/12/2013 15:24 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Hot low and middle level atmosphere brought down associated & ahead of expected TC over WA. TCs often cause this effect to the east of them over Australia.

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#1226516 - 26/12/2013 17:38 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6321
Loc: Near Yeppoon
So once that cyclone disappears out of the picture, weather returns to normal in Qld and heatwave goes ?
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#1226527 - 26/12/2013 19:08 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Yes! That's how the theory works, Vinnie!

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#1226533 - 26/12/2013 19:39 Re: Christmas Day/Boxing Day Predictions for all Capitals Cities [Re: BrisWeatherMan]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
But, may take a few more days or more to clear hot air after the TC disappears.

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