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#1226632 - 27/12/2013 16:46 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
We just ended up getting just some very light rain here. All though nice breeze here, cooling things down. Think that is it for today...

Looks like Esk got a direct hit, will be interesting to see what happened there, no reports of anything yet.

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#1226634 - 27/12/2013 16:58 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Stormspell2
Big fat 0 here too. We've had 18mm so far this month which is pretty rubbish when the driest on record is 50.8 (according to WZ)and that was last year. Unless something changes I can see the record being broken again with bells on this year for December.
The current Brisbane site has only been open since 1999 (very short history). But the previous Brisbane site that operated between 1840 and 1994, about 900 metres away from the current site, has recorded drier Decembers than the present one, with 8.9mm in 1865.
Where 2013 would rank at the very close-by previous Brisbane site:
#1 - 8.9mm in 1865
#2 - 10.4mm in 1938
#3 - 12.7mm in 1868
#4 - 14.0mm in 1900
#5 - 18.0mm in 2013 (so far)
#6 - 19.0mm in 1901
#7 - 19.4mm in 1957
#8 - 22.1mm in 1941
#9 - 22.4mm in 1918
(Bris Regional Office Averages/Records (1840-1994): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_040214_All.shtml)
(Bris Regional Office Monthly Rain (1840-1994): http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weath..._stn_num=040214) smile

~~~~

Slight chance of a shower/storm on Sunday here, but I think yesterday might have been the last rain/storm for 2013.


Edited by Seabreeze (27/12/2013 17:00)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1226637 - 27/12/2013 17:28 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Coxy]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1564
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Originally Posted By: Coxy
I hate when Paul Cirrus is so negative. Especially when he's right!

Just want some rain!

sorry coxy, i learnt long ago not to get too excited, especially when the signs arean't there. Trust me, all i want is a huge destructive storm with 10 cm hail. Being a weather nerd, this is what we hope for smile


Edited by paulcirrus (27/12/2013 17:29)
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1226657 - 27/12/2013 18:35 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 196
Loc: Gympie
Huge storm here in Gympie around 3pm. Very heavy rain, lightning, thunder and wind that would knock you off your feet.

Can hear thunder starting up again not far away (530pm). Wonder if we will get another storm?

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#1226670 - 27/12/2013 19:55 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
One thing about today, when storms gained strength they became hugely electrified. Weatherzone 128km was a 'white out' of strikes on most strong storms and not just in a small area, over large and in a couple of instances huge areas. The storm that went through the Yarraman/Blackbutt area, I was standing on the side of the road near Harlin listening to the thunder from it - quite literally just constant booms of Cg thunder... barely a few second gap between each boom. I was heading for that storm but opted out at the last minute and headed back down towards Esk to meet up with a new storm moving through that area - I'm glad I did, it too was beautifully electrified. Quite a wild scene driving into the core just north of the Esk township - frequent and powerful Cg lightning popping out of the base which at that point was wrapped around the east and northern edge of the rain curtain (front loader/squall line like structure). I spent some time messing around in the core with frequent Cg lightning persisting before driving north again on the Brisbane Valley Highway to get back ahead of it in the hope it would continue NE or N. Inside the core, approaching the northern edge of the rain curtain to the point where I could *just* start to see the rain curtain thinning out and some light streaming in again I drove through a brief period of very sparse but considerable sized hail - several heavy 'donks' on the roof. Turns out I was driving through some maximum intensity on radar. I wasn't overly worried about hail today but for a few seconds there I thought I may have made a mistake. The wind briefly approached severe levels (probably maxed out around 80km/h) and then boom, into clear air again. It's funny how that 30 seconds of intensity can really make a chase, if the Cg's heading into it hadn't already done that.

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#1226671 - 27/12/2013 20:05 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Gumby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2002
Posts: 70
Loc: Brisbane
Further to Ben's remarks about today's storm electric activity - Unfortunately the ABC is reporting somebody has been killed by lightning at Inskip Point near Fraser Island.

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#1226673 - 27/12/2013 20:20 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
Urk - what a terrible time for people to lose a loved one.

I make a point of it not because it's a huge feature and something offering any great potential but I do spot some convergence off the Sunshine and Fraser coast this evening/overnight associated with the SE surge (the wind change is probably sitting further north but the 'speed convergence' associated the SE surge max itself, which has stalled off our coast, is interesting, sitting some ways behind the wind change) ... you can see some showers developing off the Sunshine Coast around Coolum/Kawana now marking the convergence. Lower mid level lapse rates in the model profiles don't seem overly supportive of storms closer to the coast (supporting showers but no storms) but once you get further off the coast that seems to improve. Chances are there'll just be showers but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the odd storm pops up out there tonight either. Potentially unstable to ~35k feet best case scenario so not necessarily a tiny blip on the eastern horizon if they do go up

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#1226682 - 27/12/2013 21:30 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Foehn Correspondent Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 623
Loc: Bardon 4065
Further to Gumbys post also now on Courier Mail web site as well.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queen...b-1226790833569
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#1226686 - 27/12/2013 21:53 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Frostie]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stormspell2
Big fat 0 here too. We've had 18mm so far this month which is pretty rubbish when the driest on record is 50.8 (according to WZ)and that was last year. Unless something changes I can see the record being broken again with bells on this year for December.

I have to agree with PaulC's earlier comment too. I can't remember ever getting a storm in Brisbane when the temp goes over about 33/34 so pretty much 0 chance on Sunday for Bris too I reckon.

Oh well I've put the washing out, cleaned the car and oiled the deck, not much more I can do to encourage the rain frown


Brisbane City is not going to get a storm in the city and the temp is over 34c?
I find that hard to believe. AS storms can develop and be steered there.
Though on the other hand if temps got closer to 40c and as earlier from Ben Quinn's post about dryer westly winds so I take that as low level moisture could be lacking?


Edited by Steve O (27/12/2013 21:54)

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#1226722 - 28/12/2013 07:01 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Tricky day tomorrow both in terms of max temps & storm chances for Brisbane.

It's one of those cases where depending on how far or little inland the NNE'ly seabreeze manages to push, Brisbane City itself could see anything from only near 30C to near 40C. One thing's for sure though, areas away from the coastal strip such as Ipswich should see a scorcher.

It's also one of those cases where marginal moisture (mainly aloft) & lots of convective inhibition in the lower levels suggest thunderstorm chances are only marginal for Brisbane later tomorrow or overnight... but if any do manage to get going, some could be severe given the high instability & forcing from the approaching southerly change (10kt NNE'lies at the surface near the coast with 25kt SSW'lies by 500hpa giving shear around 35kt in the 0 to 6km layer). Forecast soundings from other models such as UK also agree with marginal moisture, mainly high based. Not much support from the upper levels so will have to rely on intense surface heating/instability/seabreeze front to generate anything. Below are the outputs from my scripts. Re the thunderstorm one, that note in red at the top will be especially important tomorrow.

But there's still today to get through first:






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#1226729 - 28/12/2013 08:53 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Storm within Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/11/2013
Posts: 351
Loc: Morayfield
Pleasing to know that if I can't find your graphs on your fb page I can find.them here Ken smile
_________________________
Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in awhile, 9 out of 10 people would have nothing to start a conversation with.

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#1226738 - 28/12/2013 11:14 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 726
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Here's a few pics from yesterday near Laidley. Storm briefly showed some ok'ish structure. Unfortunatley, I ran out of road options to find another good view after this.







Quick video of some convection and CG's -

_________________________
OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1226739 - 28/12/2013 11:25 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Greats shots Mezo!

Glad I live near the coast now, though I've never really had a problem with heat just the dryness that comes with it. Interesting with that top image Ken for Sunday from about Vic point down to Tweed the temps are lower so looks like the chances of cells forming close to the coast with the seabreeze.

The sounding for my location 4pm tomorrow.

qq

Yea I guess there's not much in the way of forcing besides the S'ly change and an inversion, though if temps got over 35c cap shouldn't be a problem?
The Cape values and instability are looking really good so the potencial is there...for places closer to the coast.






Edited by Steve O (28/12/2013 11:26)

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#1226741 - 28/12/2013 11:28 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3561
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Warm 28.5 C & feels more humid than yesterday, almost calm but very little NNW wind. Cloud evaporating with prolonged sunshine warming things up nicely.
Expecting round 2 today but maybe with not as much torrential rain as yesterday.

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#1226769 - 28/12/2013 14:23 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3561
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Couple of dodgy looking cumulus conspiring to build a bit of a storm to the
west near the ranges. Damn hot & a bit humid. Great summer weather.

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#1226773 - 28/12/2013 14:43 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3561
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cell #1 today just north of toowomba moving roughly east

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#1226774 - 28/12/2013 14:49 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
much much cooler today! .. cooler than I anticipated - so where is this 37 degree heat for tomorrow? is this the lull before the storm?
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#1226775 - 28/12/2013 14:51 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1564
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Cell #1 today just north of toowomba moving roughly east

A pretty solid north-East movement.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1226776 - 28/12/2013 14:52 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: pkgjmg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
much much cooler today! .. cooler than I anticipated - so where is this 37 degree heat for tomorrow? is this the lull before the storm?



Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Tricky day tomorrow both in terms of max temps & storm chances for Brisbane.

It's one of those cases where depending on how far or little inland the NNE'ly seabreeze manages to push, Brisbane City itself could see anything from only near 30C to near 40C. One thing's for sure though, areas away from the coastal strip such as Ipswich should see a scorcher.

It's also one of those cases where marginal moisture (mainly aloft) & lots of convective inhibition in the lower levels suggest thunderstorm chances are only marginal for Brisbane later tomorrow or overnight... but if any do manage to get going, some could be severe given the high instability & forcing from the approaching southerly change (10kt NNE'lies at the surface near the coast with 25kt SSW'lies by 500hpa giving shear around 35kt in the 0 to 6km layer). Forecast soundings from other models such as UK also agree with marginal moisture, mainly high based. Not much support from the upper levels so will have to rely on intense surface heating/instability/seabreeze front to generate anything. Below are the outputs from my scripts. Re the thunderstorm one, that note in red at the top will be especially important tomorrow.

But there's still today to get through first:





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#1226777 - 28/12/2013 14:56 Re: NE NSW/SE QLD Possible showers, rain periods and thunderstorms 25/12/13 - 1/1/14 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Australia
Anyone know why we are having this lingering cloud around the SE QLD Gold Coast area when we have a high off the coast according to the weather zone synoptic ?

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